When we started this crazy train called the 2020 NFL season, Week 15 was a stop on the schedule we weren’t quite sure we’d make it to. And while the track has bent a few times due to COVID-19 outbreaks, we have officially hit the home stretch.
Regardless of what’s happened along the way – and there’s been plenty – the best NFL betting strategy way back in Week 1 remains the best approach for the Week 15 odds: get the best of the number. To do so, you’ve got to time your NFL picks perfectly.
Here are our NFL betting tips for the best lines to bet now and the best to bet later.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-7): Bet Now
The Colts dismantled the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 14, cruising to a 44-27 victory as 2.5-point road faves in Sin City. Indianapolis’ offense is starting to match strides with its defense (averaging 32.5 points over its last four outings), which is a scary thought for the rest of the AFC.
Oddsmakers pegged the Colts as low as 6-point home chalk on last week’s lookahead lines, but after running over the Raiders and the Texans’ 36-7 tumble in Chicago, Indy officially opened at -7 and this line has already jumped to -7.5 at some sharper books.
The Colts are 9-4 SU and tied with Tennessee atop the AFC South. And with the Titans hosting downtrodden Detroit in Week 15, this homestand versus Houston is a must-win matchup for Frank Reich’s squad. Indianapolis beat the Texans 26-20 in Houston two weeks ago, covering as 3.5-point road chalk, and won’t be sitting at a touchdown much longer for Sunday's clash. Get the Colts at -7 while you can.
Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (+4): Bet Later
This spread has already made some serious moves, so if you’re leaning toward New Orleans you might as well wait it out. Books posted Kansas City as low as a 3-point road favorite and that field-goal spread didn’t last long, with money on the visitor powering this spread through the key number to -3.5 and eventually landing on -4 as of Sunday night.
Granted, the Chiefs didn’t look great in their win over the Miami Dolphins, first spotting the Fins 10 points out of the gates then blowing a 30-10 lead, to the dismay of K.C. bettors laying -7.5. The Chiefs allowed 17 points in the fourth quarter and squeezed out a 33-27 victory at Hard Rock Stadium. But at least they didn’t lose to the Eagles.
Nothing piles on the points like losing to a lowly NFC East team, as well as a rookie quarterback making his first start. The Saints played a sloppy game in Philadelphia and fell 24-21 as 7.5-point road faves. New Orleans was hoping to have Drew Brees back for this potential Super Bowl preview, but it doesn’t look like the veteran gunslinger is healthy enough. That’s too bad, because this Taysom Hill-lead offense has looked flat the past two weeks and isn’t ready for a shootout with Patrick Mahomes & Co.
With the spread at K.C. -4, it won’t take much more action to move this line and move it quickly. Bookmakers are hasty to adjust through dead numbers (margins of victory that don’t occur often) and if the public piles on the Chiefs, I could see this sitting -5 or maybe even -5.5 by gameday. If you like NOLA, hold off and see how high this will go.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (Under 51.5): Bet Now
Neither offense is setting the scoreboard ablaze the past month, with the Tampa Toms averaging less than 25 points over the past three outings and Matt Ryan and the Falcons floundering for scores of nine, 16 and 17 points in three of their past four contests.
But, on the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay and Atlanta have held more than their own. The Buccaneers defense has limited foes to only 22.6 points per game on the season while Atlanta has flexed its defensive muscles since canning Dan Quinn in mid-October, giving up an average of just over 20 points per game over its last eight appearances.
These NFC South rivals have yet to play each other in 2020, with Sunday marking the first of two meetings in the final three weeks of the schedule. This Over/Under opened 51.5 and the vig on the Under is starting to climb to -115 at most books, with select markets already dropping to 51 points. If you plan to plunder the Under, get all the points you can now.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (Over 47): Bet Later
The total for this NFC North contest opened at 47 points and is already ticking downward with the number getting as low as 46 at some books Sunday night. Truthfully, this is a tough total to tackle in Week 15 with the Bears' production about as easy to plot as a drunken stumble home from the bar (if bars were still a thing. Thanks COVID... you dick).
Chicago unleashed 36 points on Houston in Week 14, a week removed from a 30-point showing against Detroit. In fact, over the past three games, the Bears have scored more points (91) than they did in the previous five games combined (86), including a 19-13 loss to Minnesota that stayed Under 44.5 points in Week 10. Glad to see that Nick Foles money going to good use. Yeesh.
The Vikings were tripped up in Tampa this past Sunday, starting out strong but watching kicker Dan Bailey botch kick after kick, which sucked all the energy out of the Minnesota offense. The Vikes are in dire need of a victory to stay in the postseason picture and score plenty of points on the fast indoor turf of U.S. Bank Stadium (29.1 points per home game). The Over/Under trends between these divisional foes scream Under (3-6 O/U last nine meetings) but if you’re into bucking the trends and taking the Over, be patient and see if this dips below 46 points.
Where Can I Get the Best Odds on the NFL?
You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbooks, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.
