The weather outside is far from frightful and my dreams of a White Christmas appear to be dashed by the long-term forecast, which is calling for slim chances of snow between now and December 25.
A little snow could go a long way. Besides jump-starting that hard-to-find 2020 Xmas spirit, a solid dump of the white stuff would usher in one of the best outdoor winter activities: sledding.
Sledding is a lot like NFL betting most weeks. You jump on your NFL picks and predictions with nervous anticipation and hang on for dear life during an unpredictable and often bumpy ride that’s over before you know it.
Then, regardless of if the ride was fun and exciting or painful and cold (often accompanied by an icy feeling running down your spine and ending up in the butt crack), you pick yourself up, dust off the snow, and march your ass all the way to the top of the hill to do it all again.
I guess the experience of sledding all depends on what you choose to ride on, and the same goes for betting NFL Underdogs. Some dogs are safer options with plenty of cushion and direction, while others prove their worth midway down the hill as you uncontrollably skid sideways toward a tree.
That’s the moment in which sledding and NFL betting differ. You can jump off a sled at the first sign of danger. You’re stuck with your shitty wagers once the whistle blows.
And with that in mind, my Week 14 NFL Underdogs column picks are inspired by some of the most popular – not always safe – sledding options.
Minnesota Vikings (+6.5) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers pick
The Vikings are… a plastic tube.
At first glance, that plastic tube looks like a viable sledding option. Cool colors. Big and fast. Heck, that sucker even has a tow rope to help you lug it up the hill and ride it all season. In soft powdery snow, the tube is everything we hoped it would be. And then it gets cold. Minnesota cold.
That fluffy foundation hardens into a jagged crag of icy X-Acto knives and the tube is torn to shreds. It came with a quick-fix patch and we may be able to salvage the tube for another ride, but you’ll always question its integrity - especially when the sledding gets rough.
Week 14 could be rough sledding for the Vikings, who are getting nearly a touchdown against one of the league’s top defenses in Tampa Bay. Man, I wish this spread was a full TD. I don’t think I’ve ever wanted a half-point more in my life. But we’re still riding the tube… I mean Minnesota, at +6.5.
The Vikes have won five of their last six, although that path was pretty powdery, and this offense is producing more each week. The relentless rushing attack of RB Dalvin Cook is now complemented by the improved play of QB Kirk Cousins, who has a passer rating of 118.62 since November 1. Toss in receiving threats Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, and Minnesota can keep even the stingiest stop units guessing.
The Bucs are off a bye, hoping that hiatus solved their scoring woes. Tom Brady is coming off a November he won’t want to remember, boasting an 85.2 passer rating, just 6.7 yards per completion, and a TD-to-INT count of 10 to seven.
Minnesota can make even the worst QBs look good at times, but the defense has played the pass better over the past few games and I like this purple and gold tube to slide us in under the touchdown Sunday.
PREDICTION: Minnesota +6.5 (-110)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) vs Buffalo Bills pick
The Steelers are… a GT Snow Racer.
It has a steering wheel and a brake. What could go wrong? Well, for one thing, that brake is cosmetic. It doesn’t do shit. And that steering wheel merely gives the illusion of control, making you feel a little more sure about jumping onboard this 15-pound, steel-framed rocket sled to hell.
When I was 11, we had a hill in our backyard with just enough buffer space so you could slide without slamming into the foundation of the house. Enter the GT Snow Racer and six seconds later, I entered my brother’s bedroom through the basement window. True story. Even “top of the line” sleds with all the bells and whistles are slaves to the laws of physics.
Pittsburgh has all the bells and whistles. The Steelers rank No. 2 in total DVOA at Football Outsiders – No. 1 in defensive DVOA – and are coming off their first loss of the season.
Monday’s defeat to Washington had a lot to do with Pittsburgh’s situational spot in Week 13: following a hectic and frustrating Week 12 that saw its rivalry with the Ravens moved almost a full week and looking ahead (and past the lowly WFT on a short turnaround) to a massive AFC showdown in Orchard Park. Pittsburgh was also without standout RB James Conner last Monday (he’s back against a Bills defense giving up 4.7 yards per carry – 28th in the NFL).
That blemish has flipped the Steelers from faves to dogs this Sunday night, visiting a Buffalo squad that’s played well at home but hasn’t faced a stop unit this stout since September. I often say betting underdogs can come down to simply picking the best team, and Pittsburgh is the shiniest sled in the shed getting the points in Week 14.
The Steelers have been the best underdog bet in the NFL since Ben Roethlisberger took over under center way back in 2004, going 49-26-3 ATS as points spread pups in that span. They’re also a resilient bunch, posting a 51-36 ATS count when coming off a loss over those 17 seasons.
Who needs brakes when you're betting an underdog with an 11-1 record (8-4 ATS).
PREDICTION: Pittsburgh +2.5 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns (+1) pick
The Browns are… a Krazy Karpet.
Nothing says security while soaring down a frozen 50-degree grade like a piece of 1/10-inch thick plastic and two makeshift handholds with Ginsu-like edges that could cut through a tin can as easily as a tomato.
You ride a Krazy Karpet the same way a cowboy rides a bull: you know it’s a bad idea but you’re hoping to hang on just long enough not to die. However, unlike bull riders, I don’t think anyone has ever been able to stay on a Krazy Karpet for more than eight seconds.
No one enjoys riding a Krazy Karpet. You have zero control, you’re fully exposed having to ride headfirst, and you feel every damn bump along the way. Yet somehow, they’re still a staple of the winter sledding scene.
No one enjoys betting on the Browns. You have zero control, you’re fully exposed, and you feel every damn bump along the way. Yet somehow, we’re doing it again for a second straight week.
If you didn’t have any context on the Factory of Sadness (or never ridden a Krazy Karpet in your life), you would think betting the Browns is a no-brainer in Week 14. Cleveland comes into this Monday Night Football meeting with Baltimore having won four straight contests, including hanging 41 points on Tennessee last weekend.
Baker Mayfield is playing his best football since his rookie run and the rushing attack of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt is even putting the Ravens’ ground game to shame. The Cleveland defense continues to cause chaos, recording 30 sacks and 20 takeaways, and hosts a Baltimore squad playing on a short week thanks to schedule shakeups.
Smooth sledding, right?
Well, hiding underneath that snow is a nasty tree stump that the Browns continuously hit every time they go down this AFC North hill: Cleveland is 0-4 ATS versus divisional opponents this season (2-2 SU) and 9-23-1 ATS in its last 33 meetings with AFC North rivals.
But we rode the Browns to betting profits last Sunday and we think we’ve got the hang of this Krazy Karpet thing (famous last words before using your front teeth as a brake).
I mean, what else are we going to do: bet the Jets? They’re the NFL betting equivalent of sliding on a “For Sale” sign you stole off your neighbor's lawn. Another true story.
PREDICTION: Cleveland +1 (-110)
Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 22-17 ATS
NFL Week 14 Betting Card
- Minnesota +6.5 (-110)
- Pittsburgh +2.5 (-110)
- Cleveland +1 (-110)
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