Betting NFL underdogs is always tough to tackle during the home stretch of the schedule.
Between unknown motivation, players and coaches fighting for their jobs, and a season’s worth of wear and tear, you never know what you’re going to get from those teams getting the points in December.
This year adds a new wrinkle when making your NFL picks and predictions: COVID-19.
NFL players and staff have been poked, prodded, tracked and tossed through more hoops than a Cirque du Soleil show just to get on the field each Sunday (or Saturday!). And when you’re on the tail end of a losing football season – like many December underdogs are – those stressful protocols make it extra tough to give the required two shits.
I suspect the home stretch of the 2020 campaign will be the hardest ever in terms of unearthing NFL betting value around point spread underdogs. How else can you explain my 0-3 ATS Week 14?
That “golden sombrero” has me sitting at 22-20 ATS heading into Week 15, teetering on the edge of profitability as we enter what could be a dark time for dogs. But we continue to put on a brave (masked) face and trudge forward, the first step being my NFL Underdogs picks and predictions for Week 15.
Carolina Panthers (+8.5) vs Green Bay Packers Pick
The Panthers don’t have much to play for in these remaining three games, at least on the surface. But first-year coach Matt Rhule is trying to instill a culture of winning in Carolina. That means not rolling over for these final few matchups.
The Panthers have overperformed in 2020, at least by the oddsmakers’ standards. They’re 7-6 against the spread on the season, with all seven of those ATS winners coming when catching extra points from the bookies. And Carolina is collecting plenty of points at Lambeau Field Saturday.
The team is coming off a rough loss to Denver in Week 14 after a wild week dealing with COVID outbreaks, which left them without several key contributors on both sides of the ball. The Panthers are getting some of those guys back for Week 15, including WR D.J. Moore, who makes up a potent passing game that ranks eighth in DVOA at Football Outsiders.
Green Bay’s defense hasn’t faced an air attack this good in a while. The Packers have dealt with the likes of Mitch Trubisky, Carson Wentz/Jalen Hurts, and an injured Matt Stafford/Chase Daniel the past three games—a group about as threatening as a NERF gun firing squad.
Gimme Teddy B and his ATS Midas touch in Week 15.
PREDICTION: Carolina +8.5 (-110)
New England Patriots (+2) vs Miami Dolphins Pick
A couple of weeks back, I faded Bill Belichick and his scary record versus rookie quarterbacks. That was wrong. A 45-0 kind of wrong.
The Hoodie once again has a chance to feast on the supple flesh of a first-year passer (that’s where he draws his dark power) when the Patriots visit Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins in Week 15. Belichick is 19-5 SU versus rookie QBs, including winning nine straight matchups against those greenhorns.
Tua hasn’t exactly been lighting the league on fire, but his steady play under center has allowed a disruptive Dolphins squad to do just enough to keep Miami covering the spread. The Dolphins have thrived on turnovers, special teams scores and a “bend but don’t break” defense.
Even though this method of madness has been turning out weirdo results since October, I don’t see it as a sustainable solution for success—especially since a number of those victories have come against piss-poor opposition.
The Fins also fall into one of the more “under the radar” situational spots out there: the K.C. Effect.
That’s right. The Chiefs don’t just beat your ass on the field but make you feel the effects of that loss in the following game, like tequila. Teams are 4-7 SU and 2-9 ATS in the game immediately following a meeting with Kansas City—a letdown spot Miami will have to manage after a wild one with the reigning Super Bowl champs last Sunday.
PREDICTION: New England +2 (-110)
Chicago Bears (+3) vs Minnesota Vikings Pick
Matt Nagy has successfully extinguished the flames engulfing his office chair.
Since their Week 11 bye, the Bears offense has gone from picking up only 4.7 yards per play in the opening 10 games to gaining six yards per snap over their last three outings. That production is up there with some of the best offenses in the NFL.
The move back to Mitchell Trubisky at QB, an overhaul on the offensive line and the eruption of RB David Montgomery have given Chicago teeth, pumping out 11 touchdowns in that stretch—compared to just nine in the seven games before that Week 11 break.
That sudden shot of offense has also provided much-needed complementing support to a stop unit that was starting to look a little disinterested after towing the load for so long. The Bears put it all together in Week 14, smashing the Houston Texans 36-7 as 1-point home dogs.
The last game before this big transformation was a 19-13 loss to the Vikings at home in Week 10, in which the Bears recorded just 10 first downs and held on to the football for only 24 minutes. I expect Chicago to approach this Week 15 matchup in Minnesota like an ex-lover would running into their former flame after living at the gym since the breakup: show ‘em what you’re working with!
PREDICTION: Chicago +3 (-110)
Last week: 0-3 ATS
Season: 22-20 ATS
NFL Week 15 Betting Card
- Carolina +8.5 (-110)
- New England +2 (-110)
- Chicago +3 (-110)
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