It’s time to be thankful and enjoy some holiday football. We’ve spent all week looking into every NFL market in search of value and great numbers—so you don't have to!
Today, we’re jumping on the Watson wagon, fading the Dallas offense and hoping for a classic AFC North battle in Pittsburgh.
We break down the best NFL team and player props and bring you our favorite free picks and predictions for Thanksgiving.
NFL Prop Picks for Thanksgiving
Houston Texans vs Detroit Lions
With no skilled players last week, the Lions laid an egg and didn’t even get into the red zone. They will likely be without WRs Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola while RB D’Andre Swift practiced on a limited basis this week. We like Swift against Houston’s No. 30 rush defense but their pass defense is also fade-worthy.
WR Marvin Jones has 16 targets over the last two games for 147 yards and will again be the focal point of the passing game, especially with TE T.J. Hockenson dealing with a toe issue.
PREDICTION: Marvin Jones Over 55.5 receiving yards (-118)
The Texans had three players crack 80 yards receiving last week versus the Patriots and now get the Lions’ 23rd-ranked DVOA pass defense that let ex-XFLer P.J. Walker throw for 258 yards. If you want to back any Houston receiver we're on board, but we are afraid of game script killing the passing game if Detroit can’t put points on the board.
Deshaun Watson, though, has rushed for at least 36 yards in four straight games as the Houston run game has been brutal all year (31st rush yards per game). Nothing says early holiday football like cheering for scrambles.
PREDICTION: Deshaun Watson Over 29.5 rushing yards (-115)
Washington Football Team vs Dallas Cowboys
Many are thinking that Dallas’ offense is back after putting up 31 points against the Vikings last week, but Andy Dalton & Co. were outgained by 1.1 yards per play and 3.6 yards per pass. Dalton was competent, but with just 6.3 yards per pass, this is not an offense we are getting behind—even on a holiday.
Washington held Dallas to three points on Oct. 25 and has held teams to 23 points or less in four of its last five games.
PREDICTION: Dallas team total Under 23.5 (-110)
Washington RB J.D. McKissic had received 29 targets in Weeks 9 and 10, as he has been a favorite of QB Alex Smith, yet his receiving total can be had for 12 yards lower than last week after a down Week 11. McKissic is 6-2 O/U on his receiving total over the last eight games.
As a Thanksgiving bonus, we are going to add an Antonio Gibson rushing total prop to the card as the Washington running back is coming off a 16-rush, 94-yard performance against the Bengals last week. Only the Texans have allowed more running yards to opposing RBs this year than the Cowboys.
PREDICTION: J.D. McKissic Over 27.5 receiving yards (-120) and Antonio Gibson Over 54.5 rushing yards (-119)
Year-to-date record: 111-85 (57 percent)
NFL Thanksgiving Prop Betting Card
- Marvin Jones Over 55.5 receiving yards (-118)
- Deshaun Watson Over 29.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Dallas team total Under 23.5 (-110)
- J.D. McKissic Over 27.5 receiving yards (-120) and Antonio Gibson Over 54.5 rushing yards (-119)
Where Can I Find NFL Player Props?
You can bet on NFL team and player props at nearly every online and casino sportsbooks. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL player and team props in your area.
