Packers vs Bills Sunday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Diggs Is Due for Another Big Night

The Sunday Night Football showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Buffalo Bills has gone from a possible Super Bowl preview to one of the biggest spreads of the 2022 season in seven short weeks.

Buffalo, which was a 3.5-point home chalk on the lookahead line for this non-conference clash in the summer, is now giving as many as 12 points to Green Bay in Week 8.

That massive increase has as much to do with the Bills’ dominance as it does with the Packers’ problems. The Cheeseheads enter Week 8 on a three-game losing streak and boast a 2-5 mark against the spread, while Buffalo is fresh off a bye week and touting a three-game run with a solid 4-1-1 ATS count.

Will we get the game we thought we would back in the offseason, or has the cheese gone moldy? I break down the NFL odds spread and Over/Under total for Sunday Night Football and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Packers vs. Bills on October 30.

Be sure to also check out Josh Inglis' three favorite SNF player prop picks for this marquee matchup.

Packers vs Bills best odds

Packers vs Bills picks and predictions

Green Bay’s defense has not played up to expectations this season and more so over this three-game slide. Those struggles came despite some moderate offensive opposition, losing to the likes of Washington and the two New York teams.

It’s safe to say this meeting with Josh Allen and the Bills is a massive jump up in competition for the Cheeseheads, most notably the passing game for Buffalo. Headlining that downfield attack is WR1 Stefon Diggs, who sits second in receiving yards with 656 on the season.

Diggs has gone off the past two games, amassing 18 catches on 24 targets for a combined 250 yards through the air. Despite that recent output and the fleet-footed Diggs coming into Week 8 with fresh legs off a bye, his receiving yard prop total sits at a modest 78.5 yards — a bar he’s surpassed in four of six games this season.

Diggs will likely draw coverage from Packers’ standout CB Jaire Alexander, who had a rough day against the Commanders last week. Alexander was assigned to Commanders' WR1 Terry McLaurin, who finished with five catches on eight targets for 73 yards. However, things could have been a lot worse for Alexander and the Pack.

What didn’t show up in the box score were the number of routes in which McLaurin cooked Alexander but saw backup QB Taylor Heinicke either ignore him or underthrow his receiver on what would have been huge home run hits. Green Bay dodged big-play bullets on a few plays as the secondary left no safety help over the top or LBs in coverage underneath.

Alexander did give up a 37-yard go-ahead touchdown strike to McLaurin in the third quarter, and you can bet your ass Allen isn’t going to underthrow Diggs when he sniffs out those same seams on Sunday night. You have the No. 2 QB in DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement at Football Outsiders) throwing to the No. 1 WR in DYAR against a secondary ranked 28th in DVOA versus No. 1 WRs.

Considering this massive spread, normally game script would expect a hefty favorite to go run-heavy in the second half with a big lead, limiting the passing plays in the final 30 minutes and threatening any Over bets on receiving props.

However, the Bills don’t operate like that. Buffalo has no qualms when it comes to pouring it on, as we’ve seen with blowout wins over Tennessee and Pittsburgh at home — games in which Diggs was targeted 15 and 11 times for 16 total receptions and outputs of 148 and 102 yards, including longs of 41 and 46 yards.

And if Aaron Rodgers and the Packers do show up and turn this into a shootout, then Diggs will be just as involved. He’s a big-time player who makes big-time plays on the big stage.

My best bet: Stefon Diggs Over 78.5 receiving yards (-110)

Packers vs Bills spread analysis

As mentioned, the offseason spread has Buffalo as a 3.5-point home favorite and last week’s lookahead was at Bill -8.5 before Green Bay suffered its third straight loss, an embarrassing 23-21 defeat at Washington. The official opening spread hit the board at Buffalo at -10.5 at most markets on Sunday night, and money showed up right away on the favorite, pumping this up to as high as -12 at some offshore bookies.

As of Thursday, the market consensus is -11. Green Bay has been one of the most disappointing teams in the first half of the season, which is reflected in its rotten ATS record. This once-mighty offense is mustering only 0.294 points per play, which ranks 26th in the NFL, and the defense — which was projected to be among the best in the league — sits 25th in DVOA at Football Outsiders.

The Bills are actually the exact opposite. Buffalo is rolling in 2022 as the best two-way team in the league. Buffalo is tops overall in Team DVOA by a mile and owns the No. 2 EPA per play and the No. 3 EPA allowed per play in the land. Adding to this difference in results are injuries to the Packers' offensive depth chart.

Green Bay has a number of starters questionable, including a potential shortage at receiver with Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins, and Christian Watson all nursing ailments. DraftKings was reporting a one-sided bet count and handle on the home team, with Buffalo drawing 58% of tickets and 69% of the money. Our Covers Consensus is showing 55% of picks laying the lumber with the Bills on Sunday Night Football.

Packers vs Bills Over/Under analysis

The offseason total was listed at 52 points — one of the highest lookahead totals of the summer. But with the Packers offense shooting blanks behind a down year from Aaron Rodgers, the lookahead number was 48 points last week and dropped to 47.5 with the official Week 8 total Sunday night. That number is down to 47 points at some operators as of Thursday.

Green Bay’s offense has sputtered during this three-game slide, ranking 26th in EPA per play since Week 4 and producing scores of 22, 21, and 10 points in that span. That attack now runs into the best defense it has faced all season.

The Bills’ stop unit has been able to lock up plenty of potent offenses so far in 2022, most recently checking Kansas City to only 20 points in Week 6. Buffalo has been especially stingy at home, giving up just 10 total points in those two games in Orchard Park.

The forecast for upstate New York is calling for temperatures in the low 50s/high 40s Sunday night with slight winds reaching 15 mph. DraftKings was reporting interesting splits in total betting, with 59% of bets on the Over but 60% of the early handle backing the Under. Covers Consensus shows 68% of picks supporting a high-scoring finish on Sunday night.

Packers vs Bills betting trend to know

The Bills haven’t flinched when laying double-digit points under head coach Sean McDermott. Since taking over in 2017, Buffalo is 10-1 SU and 7-2-2 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points. That includes a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS count as double-digit chalk in 2022. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Bills.

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