Packers vs Commanders Week 7 Picks and Predictions: Washington Keeps Green Bay Sweating

The sky is seemingly falling in Green Bay after the Packers have suffered back-to-back embarrassing losses. Aaron Rodgers and company have put up just 30 points of offense across those two games, and just ten points since halftime of last week. The lack of offensive production on top of the uninspiring defensive play has led to consecutive losses as touchdown favorites — hence to panic in Titletown.

This week they will take to the road to face off against the Washington Commanders, who squeaked out an ugly 12-7 win over the Bears on Thursday Night Football last week to improve to 2-4, keeping them just barely afloat in the NFC East with the other three teams combining for a 15-3 record.

Can Washington parlay its rest advantage with the Packs' poor recent form and defy NFL odds, or will Green Bay right the ship and get a win on the board?

Find out in our NFL betting picks and predictions for Packers vs. Commander on October 23.

Packers vs Commanders best odds

Packers vs Commanders picks and predictions

Whenever a back-to-back MVP loses two straight games as touchdown favorites in such deflating fashion, there is rightfully a reason to be concerned. The Packers' offense ranks 20th in yards per drive and 26th in points per drive, and after watching that unit the past two weeks those numbers might seem high.

The defense has not been great either as of late, but they are arguably the only reason Green Bay is even at .500 to this point. It has allowed just 29.0 yards per drive (good for seventh) and 1.82 points per drive (good for 11th). But even on that side of the ball things have been quite wonky, with the pass defense (ninth in DVOA) performing much better than the rush defense (32nd).

That rush defense allowed rookie Breece Hall, the first running back taken in the 2022 draft, to run for 116 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries last Sunday. Michael Carter also chipped in 41 yards on six carries (6.8 YPC) and even wide receiver Braxton Berrios ran a twenty yarder in for a score as well.

On their own side, the Packers' backfield has been ineffective and arguably misused. Aaron Jones had just 19 yards on nine carries after coming into the game sporting a 6.4 YPC, and AJ Dillon chipped in 41 yards on 10 carries, with half of the yardage coming on a single run.

The former second-round pick has had a quiet season (3.9 YPC, one touchdown) after Green Bay's duo was touted as one of the league's best heading into the season. Sunday's matchup may do them no favors either, with the Commanders ranking fifth best in rush defense DVOA.

The one salvaging element to Sunday's game for the Packers may be Washington's ineffectiveness on the ground thus far, ranking as the fourth-worst rushing attack by DVOA. But even then there is reason for concern, with third-round rookie Brian Robinson ramping up as the lead back since returning two weeks ago from his gunshot wounds, and with Ron Rivera seemingly committed to getting noted playmaker Antonio Gibson more in the mix.

Things are not looking up for the Packers both at large and under the microscope, and nothing really justifies them being road favorites of more than field goal as things stand.

My best bet: Commanders +4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Packers vs Commanders spread analysis

When diving deeper into the matchup, the lack of positive outlook spans even further for the Packers. Randall Cobb, seemingly Rodgers' favorite target since the departure of Davante Adams, is now out for multiple weeks with an ankle injury, and 34th overall pick Christian Watson is still a ways away from returning.

The Packers may be getting Sammy Watkins back this week, but his fragility and ineffectiveness for many years now make his inclusion unreliable and ultimately a non-factor.

Green Bay's long-documented struggles on special teams reared its ugly head again this last Sunday, with the Jets breaking through for a blocked punt that was returned for a touchdown. But that wasn't all, as that came after a blocked field goal attempt earlier in the game.

This goes all without mentioning that the Commanders will be without starting quarterback Carson Wentz, who injured the thumb on his throwing hand last Thursday. Backup Taylor Heinecke will get the start in his place, and has had mixed results when called upon in the last two seasons.

Despite that mixed bag, it'd be difficult for Heinecke to be worse than Wentz has been, especially as of late. Washington snuck out the win on Thursday despite completing just 12 passes for 99 yards. Through Week 6, Wentz ranks 30th according to Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) metric, and Heinecke at least ranked 22nd last year.

Packers vs Commanders Over/Under analysis

Given the Packers' poor form on offense and the quarterback switch for the Commanders, it's no wonder that Sunday's total of 41 is one of the lowest on the board for Week 7.

Washington in particular may lack explosive upside in the passing game with rookie Jahan Dotson (four touchdowns in as many games) experiencing a setback in Thursday's practice that will likely keep him out of Sunday's game. Dyami Brown, who caught two touchdowns for 105 yards two weeks ago in his absence, had to exit last week's game and is listed as questionable.

And again, without Christian Watson, the Packers are without a true vertical threat. But with or without Watson, Rodgers hasn't put much on tape to suggest the Packers can be much of a threat deep into the secondary. His 6.7 yards per attempt is the lowest mark in seven years and his 10.0 yards per completion is his lowest as a starter.

With Rodgers playing as one of the league's most disappointing and arguably one of the league's worst quarterbacks currently, and with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon going against one of the league's best run defenses, the total shouldn't be in danger of going Over.

Packers vs Commanders betting trend to know

Green Bay and Washington are a combined 8-4 to the Under this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Commanders.

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