A game that could go a long way in determining the playoff picture in both NFL conferences will take place at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday afternoon as the Green Bay Packers visit the Miami Dolphins.
Though the 6-8 Packers bring an inferior record into this Christmas Day clash with the 8-6 Dolphins, Green Bay is clearly the hotter of the two teams, as they’ve won two straight while Miami has dropped three in a row.
Can the Fins climb out of their rut, or will the Packers keep on rolling? Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for Packers vs. Dolphins on Sunday, December 25.
Packers vs Dolphins best odds
Packers vs Dolphins picks and predictions
The Rams managed to cool off Packers wideout Christian Watson to some extent on Monday Night Football, but the sensational rookie should continue what’s been a strong second half of the season against the Dolphins on Christmas Day by finding the end zone once more.
Watson had eight touchdowns in a four-game span prior to Week 15, with seven coming through the air, and another one earned on the ground. The North Dakota State product has handled the ball only 34 times in 2022 but has nine touchdowns in total — putting up an incredible 26.4% touchdown rate.
Watson has developed into a steady presence in the Packers’ attack as the year has progressed, hauling in at least four receptions in four of his last five games, and receiving no fewer than six targets from Aaron Rodgers in five consecutive contests. Therefore, bettors can count on his production a bit more, and can’t simply dismiss his big-play ability as fluky.
November’s Rookie of the Month tallied three touchdowns of 40 or more yards prior to last Monday; two through the air, and another on the ground. When he recorded his 58-yard and 63-yard receiving touchdowns, he burned some strong pass defenses in Philadelphia and Dallas, respectively.
Watson faces no such defense in Miami, as the Dolphins have allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game in football (246.3). They’ve also surrendered the fifth-most passing touchdowns (24) and could be without some key pieces in the secondary like safeties Eric Rowe and Jevon Holland.
With the Packers willing to hand the ball off to Watson too, he’s that much more of a threat to tally a touchdown here. The various possibilities for Watson make him a tantalizing touchdown prop wager at solid odds.
My best bet: Christian Watson anytime touchdown (+170)
Looking to bet on some NFL action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) Tyreek Hill to go record 90+ receiving yards and a receiving TD BOOSTED to +250 at Betway! Bet Now
B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $150 in free bets! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of NFL promo codes for 2022.
Packers vs Dolphins spread analysis
There’s an argument to be made that the Packers have padded their record by beating up on a pair of susceptible opponents in the Bears and Rams in successive tilts, and could get their comeuppance at Hard Rock Stadium. However, with the Dolphins slumping the way they are, it’s much too tempting to take the points with Green Bay.
Tua Tagovailoa has looked shaky in Miami’s last three games — all losses — completing a mere 49.5% of his passes (45-for-91). Tagovailoa had been one of the NFL’s most accurate passers prior to this slump, completing at least 70% of his throws in five of eight prior starts, excluding the Week 4 game against the Bengals in which he left in the first half with an injury.
The Packers pass defense is not an ideal unit for the Alabama product to try and rebound against, as it ranks second in the NFL by yards allowed per game (185.1).
Trend bettors should note that the Packers are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games when playing on a Sunday following a Monday game, while the Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous affair.
Packers vs Dolphins Over/Under analysis
I criticized Tagovailoa’s recent play above, but Rodgers has not been much better. The reigning NFL MVP hasn’t looked like himself this year, and recent efforts don’t paint a pleasant picture either. He’s 40-for-61 with a modest 411 yards and a 2:1 touchdown-interception ratio in his last two games.
Both the Packers and Dolphins could try to move the ball on the ground for the bulk of this game. Green Bay has gotten solid contributions from Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon all year long, and Miami has allowed 117.8 rushing yards per game during its current three-game slide. Fins tailback Raheem Mostert is fresh off a season-high 136-yard performance against the Bills, and the Pack are fourth-worst in football at stopping the run (148.9 yards allowed per game).
The Under is 9-4 in the Packers’ last 13 games after allowing fewer than 15 points in their previous contest, with an identical record in their last 13 games played in December. Under bettors have also cashed in five of the Dolphins’ last six home games.
Packers vs Dolphins betting trend to know
The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Dolphins. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Dolphins.
Packers vs Dolphins game info
| Location: | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, December 25, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Opening odds: | Dolphins -5.5, 46.5 O/U |
Packers vs Dolphins latest injuries
Packers vs Dolphins weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
