Packers vs Falcons Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 2: Don't Expect a Track Meet

After dismantling the Chicago Bears in his first home NFL start, Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love will enter Week 2 on the road vs. the Atlanta Falcons as a near pick ‘em on the NFL Week 2 odds board after the Packers flipped from a slight favorite to a slight dog on Thursday. The indoor meeting sits with a total of 40.5 on the NFL odds. 

With the Packers dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball and the Falcons content running the ball and not being aggressive down the field, is there still room for bettors to back the Under 40.5 after it opened at 41.5?

Here are my free NFL Week 2 picks for Packers vs. Falcons. 

Packers vs Falcons odds

Packers vs Falcons predictions

This total reopened at 41.5 on Sunday night but immediately took some Under money which has driven this total across the 41 to 40.5. The injuries to key skilled players for the Green Bay Packers are driving a lot of this as Aaron Jones is dealing with a hamstring injury he picked up late in Week 1 while Christian Watson, who missed the opener, is still dealing with a hamstring injury of his own. 

Last week’s hero Romeo Doubs (two touchdowns) was also limited a practice this week and could be limited again Sunday after playing just 29 of 60 offensive snaps vs. the Bears last week. 

Jones and Watson were rehabbing at practice on Thursday so they are both still limited and will likely enter the weekend with a questionable tag. Despite a 34-point performance in Week 1, I’m not putting a ton into this Green Bay offense as the Bears are the Bears. Jordan Love finished with a -5.5% CPOE in that game which ranked 24th vs. a defense that should end up as a Bottom-5 unit by season’s end.

The Atlanta Falcons offense is nothing to get excited about either. Arthur Smith has a very tight leash on his young QB in Desmond Ridder as he had just 115 yards on 15-of-18 passing and had the second-lowest aDOT in Week 1 (Fields had the worst). 

Cordarrelle Patterson is healthy and ready to go this week meaning Smith has plenty of running options with Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, and Patterson. The Falcons ran just 48 plays in Week 1 (31st) and had the fourth-highest run rate. 

This could be a slow-paced game featuring a pair of young and inexperienced QBs. Both teams won the turnover game last week and both sides will want to play mistake-free ball with a pair of 1-0 records.

If Jones suits up, I’d expect this total to move north a little but at 40.5, I’m still on the Under here as of Thursday. Waiting until Friday's practice might just get you back to that important key number of 41. Since 2015, 41 has been the most frequent combined finished total at 3.82% but 40 is second at 3.75%. 

My best bet: Under 40.5 (-110 at bet365)

Packers vs Falcons same-game parlay

Under 40.5

Bijan Robinson Over 17.5 receiving yards

Mack Hollins Over 2.5 receptions

+900 at bet365

The pair of receiving Overs are boosting these odds a bit as they are negatively correlated with the total but these are also modest receiving props.

Robinson led the team in receptions last week and even with Patterson coming back, a five-target day could smash this Over for the explosive rookie. 

Mack Hollins had a 22% target share for Atlanta in Week 1 and although I think Smith gets Drake London more involved, Ridder is making a lot of shorter passes, and Hollins' aDOT last week was just eight yards. He gets high catch-rate balls. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Packers vs Falcons spread and Over/Under analysis

Green Bay was +1.5 on the look-ahead and reopened as a slight favorite on Sunday night. They hit as high as -1.5 midweek. However, Atlanta money started coming in on Thursday and flipped the spread as most books were at Atlanta -1.5 as of Thursday afternoon. 

There are plenty of reasons for the Atlanta love as the Packers are dealing with injuries to Jones, Watson, Doubs, and even linebacker Quay Walker is going through concussion protocol. 

Many bettors will look at the Green Bay throttling of the Bears in the opener but I’m not reading too much into a win over the Bears where Green Bay was +2 on turnovers, had a defensive touchdown, and committed nine penalties for 90 yards. The Bears ran 70 plays, had more first downs, and still had over 300 yards of offense. 

Love finished as a bottom-half QB in most metrics and even worse in CPOE. Now he has to go on the road vs. a run-first team that finished seventh in EPA/play last week on defense, won 24-10, and only needed 221 yards of offense.

Former Bengal Jessie Bates forced three turnovers in Week 1 for the Birds and had 10 total tackles. He’s going to be involved early and often vs. a possible shorthanded Green Bay offense. 

As for the Falcons, don’t expect many fireworks. Ridder went 15-for-18 passing vs. Carolina last week but managed just 115 passing yards. It’s a gimmicky run-first, slow-paced, offense that looks like it doesn’t want to take chances with turnovers. 

The home side could be without starting linebacker Tray Anderson who had 10 tackles last week, but the Packers could also be missing their most impactful linebacks in Walker, too. 

As for props and usage, the Green Bay receivers all saw snaps last week. Dontayvion Wicks led the way with 37 snaps (7.4% target share), Jayden Reed had 32 snaps (18.5% target share and a team-best 33.8% air yard share), Malik Heath saw 29 snaps (1 target), and Dobbs also logged 29 snaps and had an 18% target share. AJ Dillon would get the bulk of the work in the backfield if Jones sits but he also did nothing with his 16 touches last week.

Atlanta used both Allgeier and Robinson but the former was used more in the running game while Robinson led the team with six receptions. Petterson coming back might cut into some touches but it looks like this team is going to lean heavily on Allgeier and Robinson. Mack Hollins led the WR/TE group in target share at 22% while Kyle Pitts posted a 16.6% rate and Drake London disappointed with just one target and no catches with a neutral game script. 

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