Week 14 in the NFL kicks off with a marquee matchup on Thursday Night between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. Both teams have been playing well on defense, but they also have weak links that each offense will be able to take advantage of.
That's why I'm backing Green Bay running back Josh Jacobs and Detroit QB Jared Goff in my Packers vs Lions player props for this divisional showdown.
Here are my free NFL picks for Thursday, December 5.
Packers vs Lions TNF props
Jacobs Over 70.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Goff Over 253.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)- Reed Under 48.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Packers vs Lions TNF props
Prop bet #1: Josh Jacobs Over 70.5 rushing yards
The Detroit Lions beat the Green Bay Packers 24-14 at Lambeau Field in Week 9, but the Packers actually outgained them 411-261 in that contest. Of those 411 yards, 95 came on 13 carries from running back Josh Jacobs.
The two-time Pro Bowler is third in the NFL with 987 rushing yards, and he's second in yards after contact with 563. The O/U for Jacobs rushing yards is at 70.5, a number which he's surpassed in eight of his last 11 games.
Detroit's defense has been stout against the run but is dealing with a litany of injuries up front with defensive tackles DJ Reader and Levi Onwuzurike and end Josh Paschal sidelined. The absence of the run-stuffing Reader on the interior will be particularly problematic, especially with linebacker Alex Anzalone on the IR.
Prop bet #2: Jared Goff Over 253.5 passing yards
One of the most interesting analytic stats is the Packers are ninth in the league in defensive dropback EPA but rank just 31st in defensive dropback success rate. That's a good indication that while they don't give up many big plays in the passing game, they struggle on a down-to-down basis.
That's bad news against Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff, who is second in the league in success rate and completion percentage (71.8%). The veteran pivot doesn't force anything downfield and is comfortable taking what opposing defenses give him.
Goff's passing yards numbers have been suppressed due to game script with Detroit blowing out multiple opponents. However, the Lions QB has still thrown for more than 260 yards in six of his last 11 games and the Packers will again be missing top corner Jaire Alexander.
With the Packers having won seven of their last eight contests, expect a close divisional showdown here, which should lead to plenty of passing for Goff.
Prop bet #3: Jayden Reed Under 48.5 receiving yards
Jayden Reed leads the Packers with 693 receiving yards, and he erupted for 113 yards against the Lions in Week 9. That said, there are a few reasons to fade the receiver on Thursday night.
Reed has become a bit of an afterthought in the Packers offensive gameplan the last few weeks. He was held to fewer than 30 yards in each of his last three games and saw three targets versus the 49ers with just two targets against the Bears.
Packers QB Jordan Love does a great job of spreading the ball around, but that means inconsistent production from his receivers.
The Lions also play man at the highest rate in the league, and Reed's target rate shrinks to 15.3% against man coverage while Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks see their target rates soar. In addition, Detroit will get back top CB Carlton Davis III after he missed last week with a knee injury.
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