Packers vs Lions Week 14 Picks and Predictions

Matthew Stafford and the Lions responded to coach Matt Patricia's firing by logging a 34-30 comeback win over the bumbling Bears. Next up is another division rival, the NFC North-leading Packers.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Dec 9, 2020 • 08:22 ET
Matthew Stafford NFL Detroit Lions
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The highest total on the NFL betting board for Week 14 is an NFC North matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions.

The Packers are comfortably sitting atop the division with a 9-3 record, but can they cover as 8.5-point road favorites against the Lions, who are fresh off a comeback win against the Bears?

We let you know as we break down the NFL odds and bring you our best picks and predictions for the Packers vs Lions on Sunday, December 13 with kickoff at 4:25 p.m. ET. 

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions Betting Preview

Weather

This game will be played indoors at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan, so weather will not impact play. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions for other games with our NFL weather info.

Key Injuries

Packers: Jace Sternberger TE (Out), Corey Linsley C (Out), Lane Taylor G (Out), Simon Stepaniak G (Out).
Lions: Jeff Okudah CB (Out), Tyrell Crosby T (Out), Kenny Golladay WR (Out), Desmond Trufant CB (Out), Danny Shelton DT (Out), Halipoulivaati Vaitai T (Out), Trey Flowers DE (Out), John Atkins DT (Out), C.J. Moore S (Questionable). 
Find our latest NFL injury reports.

Betting Trend to Know

The Over is 11-1 in the Lions' last 12 home games. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Lions.

Against the Spread (ATS) Pick

Green Bay is coming off their second easy win in a row to give them a three-game cushion atop the NFC North. But the Lions are coming off a victory of their own defeating their rival Chicago Bears 34-30. 

With interim head coach Darrell Bevell at the helm following the firing of Matt Patricia, the Lions played with heart, rallying from a ten-point deficit in the fourth quarter. That's a welcome change for a Detroit team with a recent history of squandering early leads – including earlier this season in Green Bay.

The Packers have one of the most explosive offenses in the league, but their defense has looked vulnerable. Green Bay gives up 28.8 points per game on the road, fourth-worst in the league, and could struggle to put away a Detroit team that piled up 460 yards of offense last week. 

The Packers stomped the Lions by a score of 42-21 when these teams tangled in Week 2. But that was just the first time Green Bay has covered in the last seven meetings between these two teams. It was also just the first time the Packers beat the Lions by more than a touchdown in the last 11 games in the head-to-head.

With these NFC North foes usually playing close games and the Lions energized by a new bench boss, look for them to cover as home underdogs. 

PREDICTION: Detroit +8.5 (-110)

 

Over/Under Pick

With the exception of an ugly shutout loss to the Panthers in Week 11, the Lions are usually capable of moving the ball down the field with quarterback Matt Stafford. The Lions average 25.6 ppg at home, and are at their best when they can take pressure off Stafford by establishing their ground game, a task that should be easier against the Packers' soft run defense. 

The Packers have a dynamic offense led by QB Aaron Rodgers, wide receiver Davante Adams and running back Aaron Jones. Green Bay leads the league in points per game with 31.6 and is second in yards per game with 396.6. That should mean lots of fireworks against a Detroit defense that surrenders 29.8 ppg, second-worst in the league. 

Both of these teams also have a track record of high-scoring contests when they play on fieldturf. The Packers are 14-6 to the Over in their last 20 games on fieldturf, while the Lions are 12-2 to the Over in their previous 14 on turf.

With the Over also cashing in four consecutive meetings in Detroit, expect another track meet on the fieldturf at Ford Field. 

PREDICTION: Over 54.5 (-110)

Player Prop

Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson is beginning to emerge as one of Detroit's most reliable pass-catchers. The second-year player has seen at least seven targets in five of his last six games.

Hockenson is coming off a terrific performance against the Bears, where he reeled in seven passes for 84 yards and now has racked up at least 68 receiving yards in each of the past three games.

Although Stafford is listed as questionable due to a partially-torn thumb ligament in his throwing hand, he's been playing with the injury for weeks. And even if the Lions starting QB does end up missing this game you can rest assured that backup Chase Daniel will be looking to his big tight end as a checkdown option. Take the Over on Hockenson's receiving yards total. 

PREDICTION: T.J. Hockenson receiving yards Over 47.5 (-114)

Packers vs Lions Betting Card

  • Detroit +8.5 (-110)
  • Over 54.5 (-110)
  • T.J. Hockenson receiving yards Over 47.5 (-114)
NFL Parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed this week’s NFL Packers vs. Lions picks, you could win $58.42 on a $10 bet?

Use our NFL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Where Can I Bet on the NFL?

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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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