A non-conference clash serves as the NFL Week 5 odds finale when the Green Bay Packers travel to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders on Monday Night Football.
Las Vegas is in the midst of a three-game tailspin after winning the season opener, but is expected to have quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo back in the lineup after he missed Week 4 due to a concussion. That's helped turn the NFL odds for tonight, with the Silver and Black going from underdogs to home chalk.
Green Bay has also been battling the injury bug during its 2-2 start but benefits from extended rest after playing last Thursday. However, there are still questions around key players, as well as missing pieces on the offensive line.
I break down the Monday Night Football odds and give my best NFL picks for Packers vs. Raiders on October 9.
For more MNF coverage, check out our best MNF prop picks as well as our Jordan Love prop picks.
Packers vs Raiders odds
Packers vs Raiders predictions
You have an offense that has yet to crack 20 points on the scoreboard and a unit that ranks bottom of the league in most advanced metrics. So naturally we’re betting on the quarterback of that group to have a good night on Monday.
Wait, what? Yeah, buckle up. This is a Jimmy G Over bet.
Garoppolo returns under center for the Las Vegas Raiders after missing Week 4 due to a concussion. The first three games with Garoppolo in the Silver and Black were up and down, but the last time we saw him in action, he stacked 324 passing yards against the Steelers in Week 3.
Jimmy Garoppolo’s odds on his passing yards for Week 5’s finale is sitting at 239.5 at FanDuel, a total that’s tempered for a few reasons that might not matter come Monday.
One factor anchoring Garoppolo’s passing production is the status of WR1 Davante Adams, who is listed as questionable for Monday. Adams was limited in practice Saturday but according to The Fresno Bee, “the injury is not of a concern” and he’s expected to play against his former team on Monday.
Another factor working against Jimmy G’s total passing yards prop is the Green Bay Packers passing defense — or at least its output so far through four games. Green Bay sits 11th in yards allowed through the air, checking rival QBs to a league-low depth of target.
But run those opposing QBs up the flagpole and the Packers have gotten a pass vs. the pass. The Cheeseheads faced an overthinking Justin Fields in Week 1, Desmond Ridder in Week 2, and Derek Carr (and a bit of Jameis Winston) in Week 3.
Last Thursday, Green Bay checked Jared Goff and the Lions to 190 yards passing but that had more to do with Detroit doing whatever it wanted on the ground (211 rushing yards) and playing conservatively with a monster lead in the second half.
While the Packers’ EPA per dropback sits 12th lowest in the land, the secondary isn’t exactly stopping teams. Green Bay has given up a success rate of 47.5% to foes when they pass (21st), which means those air attacks are moving the chains down-to-down.
Las Vegas, which is 19th in EPA per dropback, sits seventh in passing success rate (49.7%) — a measurement that jumps to 51.8% with Garoppolo making the throws. The Raiders are picking up bigger gains, sitting No. 1 in completed air yards per attempt, and Jimmy G is gaining traction with this brand-new receiving corps, which vocally missed him in Week 4.
"We're getting there. Every day, it's what we're trying to do," Garoppolo told the media this week. "We have to take care of the ball, starting with myself. I think that's where it all starts. But after that it's just about making plays, letting the guys – we've got playmakers all over the field, just have to get them the rock."
Player projections for Garoppolo vary for Week 5, but the bulk of them come in north of his passing yard Over/Under of 239.5 with the majority around 250+ yards. Even with the lower end, the consensus comes out to 247 yards while the ceiling is flirting with 260 yards.
There will also be late injury updates that influence this market closer to game time. When Adams is upgraded from question (which sounds like he will be according to reports) that will help boost Jimmy G’s forecasts. And the Packers secondary could be down two starters with CB Jaire Alexander and safety Rudy Ford listed as questionable.
Many sportsbooks aren’t hanging a passing total for Garoppolo yet until they get updates on those injuries, but I’m grabbing the Over 239.5 yards now, getting ahead of any adjustments.
My best bet: Jimmy Garoppolo Over 239.5 passing yards (-114)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Packers vs Raiders same-game parlay
Jimmy Garoppolo Over 239.5 passing yards
Jimmy Garoppolo Over 1.5 passing TDs
Raiders ML
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Jimmy G got going with his WRs in Week 3 and will pick up where he left off against an overrated Packers passing defense.
He’s passed for two TDs in two of three starts this season and will likely find Adams for at least one against his former club.
Las Vegas is playing just its second home game of 2023 and the market has moved toward the Silver and Black this week, flipping the Raiders from underdogs to favorites.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Packers vs Raiders spread and Over/Under analysis
The look-ahead line set back in the spring when the schedule was released listed the Raiders as 2-point home chalk for this Week 5 Monday night matchup. That spread slimmed to Las Vegas +1 heading into last weekend.
The official Week 5 spread hit the board at Raiders +1.5, but this got pushed over the fence on Thursday, with Garoppolo expected back and the Packers having some important starters limited in practice.
As of Sunday morning, most books are dealing Las Vegas as a 2-point favorite. Covers Consensus is showing 59% of picks on the Packers while sportsbooks like BetMGM are reporting 74% of ticket count and 64% of money riding on the visiting team.
The Packers enjoy a mini-bye after battling through injuries in the first four weeks of play, having lost 34-20 to Detroit on Thursday in Week 4 and getting an extra day with the Week 5 outing scheduled for Monday.
Starting CB Jaire Alexander and RB1 Aaron Jones are listed as questionable and veteran OT David Bakhtiari was put on IR after knee surgery.
Green Bay needs a boost on offense after three weeks of flat showings. The Cheeseheads erupted for 38 points against Chicago in Week 1 but have since struggled to move the chains against some stronger defensive opponents. The Packers have converted on less than 37% of their third-down tries and averaged just 4.6 yards per play in the last three showings.
The Raiders defense could be the cure for those ailments. Las Vegas sits 30th in EPA allowed per play and 26th in opponent success rate, including a 43.2% rate on third down defense — 23rd in the league.
Defensive coordinator Patrick Graham has been using a soft shell scheme, protecting against the big play but allowing foes to chip away at the softer coverage inside. That’s led to a lopsided count in time of possessions and has the stop unit on the field for 32:21 in average TOP — just behind Green Bay’s defense at 33:05.
Las Vegas’ offense hasn’t been able to counter those defensive shortcomings, sitting dead last in DVOA. The passing game is the biggest strength for the Silver and Black, headlined by former WR Davante Adams, but he is listed as questionable for Monday’s game.
The Packers defense uses plenty of blitz to stir up pass pressure, bringing extra rushers at the seventh-highest rate in the land which has drummed up heat on over 27% of opponents’ dropbacks. However, they run into a Raiders offensive line holding its own to start 2023.
Las Vegas is giving up the lowest pressure rate on its QBs and ranks sixth in pass block win rate at ESPN, with Garoppolo suffering only four sacks and having 2.5 seconds in the pocket. That allowed deeper plays to develop and has Jimmy G ranked No. 1 in completed air yards. He faces a Packers defense sitting No. 1 in average depth of target allowed at 6.2 yards.
The Over/Under total for Monday opened at 43.5 points and has since climbed to 44.5 on Sunday morning. According to BetMGM, 69% of bets and 79% of the handle is riding on the Over. Covers Consensus shows 57% of picks on the Over as well.
Green Bay enters Week 5 with a 3-1 O/U count and runs the 10th-quickest tempo on offense in terms of seconds per snap.
Las Vegas owns the flip of that record at 1-3 O/U due to that passive defense allowing shorter gains. That has foes dominating the football and bringing the pace to a snail’s pace, with opponents snapping the ball every 28.5 seconds — the slowest defensive tempo in the league.
Packers vs Raiders betting trend to know
Under head coach Matt LaFleur, the Packers are 3-6 Over/Under in non-conference road games since 2019. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Raiders.
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Packers vs Raiders game info
| Location: | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Monday, October 9, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN or ABC |
| Opening odds: | Raiders +1, 43.5 O/U |
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