Week 17 offers an NFC South Division clash between the 6-9 Carolina Panthers and the 7-8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and there is plenty on the line.
One game separates these teams in the standings. Carolina is coming off of a 37-23 home victory over Detroit, and Tampa Bay defeated Arizona in overtime.
Who will win this NFC South tilt? Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for this Week 17 showdown between the Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, January 1.
Panthers vs Buccaneers best odds
Panthers vs Buccaneers picks and predictions
Tampa Bay WR Chris Godwin has been Buccaneers QB Tom Brady’s top target over the past five games, and that's not going to change anytime soon.
Godwin took his time recovering from a season-ending 2021 ACL surgery, but he’s been money for Brady recently and has at least 6.5 receptions in five of his last seven matchups.
Brady has attempted at least 43 passes per game over his last five, and Godwin has been his favorite target, hauling in 41 of 53 passes sent his way, and it's a safe bet Tom Terrific will call his number early and often again on Sunday.
The Buccaneers aren’t giving Brady much time to throw, but he’s been finding Godwin on short, out routes. And even against a solid defense like Carolina's, seven receptions isn't a stretch.
The Panthers bend a bit, and while they allow a below-average amount of completions (22nd in the league), they yield 1.4 passing TDs per game, and while his TD reception prop is appealing, it's more likely Godwin snags Over 6.5 receptions by virtue of how often Brady is targeting him and the types of routes he's running yielding a high success rate.
My best bet: Chris Godwin Over 6.5 receptions (-104)
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Panthers vs Buccaneers spread analysis
This is a massive game for both teams, and I’m leaning towards Tampa Bay not only winning but also covering the 3-point spread.
It hasn’t been the best season for the Bucs, but they are currently first in the NFC South with a one-game lead over both Carolina and New Orleans. The Saints play Philadelphia this week and a Tampa victory would give the Bucs the NFC South title.
Brady is fourth in the NFL with 4,178 passing yards to go along with 21 TD passes and nine interceptions. He’s thrown a pair of picks in each of his last three games and has nine TD passes along with seven INTs over his past five contests.
Tampa Bay is the worst rushing offense in the league and its offensive line has all sorts of health issues that have forced Brady into quick throws. The result has been fewer big plays and a 27th-ranked scoring offense (17.7 ppg).
The Panthers defense allows 22.5 points per game (19th) and has allowed at least that many in three of their past five. Carolina allows 125 rushing yards per game and a combination of Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White could make hay while the sun shines.
The Bucs' saving grace has been their defense. Tampa Bay is seventh in points allowed (20.3) and has surrendered 124 points over its last five. It faces a surging offense behind QB Sam Darnold, and the Panthers have scored 20 points or more in three of their last five.
The Bucs are 0-6-1 ATS at home this season but this is a HUGE game they need to win. Their defense is better than Carolina's offense and Brady and the boys will do enough to not only win this game but also cover the modest spread.
Panthers vs Buccaneers Over/Under analysis
The Panthers defense can be shaky at times, and they allow 26.5 points on the road, but they are facing a Bucs offense with a non-existent running game and a QB with a flimsy offensive line who’s thrown six picks over his last three games.
Tampa Bay is ninth in overall DVOA and has allowed 23 points or more in just three of their eight home games this season. Carolina scores an average of 19 points per game on the road and it simply doesn't have the offense to do much against the Bucs.
The Over is 7-8 for Carolina and 3-3 when the Panthers are the away side. Tampa Bay is 11-4 to the Under and the Under is 4-3 at Raymond James Stadium.
Finally, this is an important game for both sides and the defenses are probably better than the respective offenses. Darnold has played well since returning from injury but the Bucs defense is the best he’s faced and he doesn’t have enough weapons to hurt Tampa Bay.
Brady and the offense are riding the struggle bus and he’s up against a defense playing with confidence. The offenses will struggle, the defenses will shine, and this contest will finish Under the number.
Panthers vs Buccaneers betting trend to know
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Panthers vs Buccaneers game info
| Location: | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, January 1, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Opening odds: | Buccaneers -3, 40 O/U |
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