The NFL regular season wraps up on Sunday night with a marquee matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions at Ford Field.
My early Vikings vs. Lions predictions are betting on Detroit to outlast Minnesota in a high-scoring shootout in this Week 18 clash that will determine the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Here are my NFL picks for this high-stakes showdown on January 5.
Vikings vs Lions predictions
Early spread lean
Lions -2.5 (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
The Minnesota Vikings are on a nine-game winning streak, but they lost 31-29 at home when these teams previously clashed in Week 7.
The Detroit Lions are 8-0 against the spread in the last eight games in the head-to-head, and they've won outright in the previous four meetings. The Lions have been an ATS machine during the Dan Campbell era, going an incredible 37-16 ATS (69.8% cover rate) since the start of the 2022 season.
Despite multiple key injuries on the defensive side of the ball, the Lions continue to get the job done and are fresh off a 40-34 comeback win against the 49ers on Monday night.
Minnesota's defense blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL and needs to get to the passer if it wants to have success. However, Detroit's offensive line does an excellent job in pass protection, and Jared Goff excels against the blitz.
The Lions quarterback is second in the league in passer rating (113.6) and has the sixth-best offensive grade (82.9) when blitzed, according to PFF.
The Vikings have been giving up big plays, and they won't be able to contain a Lions attack third in the league in dropback EPA and fourth in rush EPA. With how dominant the Lions have been at home, I'm not betting against them at any spread below a field goal.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 56.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This is the highest total of the season, but I'm still leaning towards the Over. There have previously been five games this year (with Detroit playing in four of them) with totals at 53 or above, and the Over is 4-1 in those contests.
The Lions lead the league with 33.3 ppg, and for the reasons mentioned above, they should be able to move the ball against this blitz-happy Vikings D. That said, I also expect Minnesota to put up points against an injury-plagued Lions stop unit.
Detroit's defense has been without star defensive end Aidan Hutchinson for most of the year. Its best interior pass rusher (Alim McNeil), top linebacker (Alex Anzalone), and best corner (Carlton Davis II) have since joined him on the IR.
The Lions have given up more than 30 points in three of their last four games, and they surrendered 29 points when these teams previously clashed.
The Vikings have scored 27+ points in five of their last six games. With Sam Darnold putting together a career year, Minnesota is fifth in the NFL in dropback success rate. Meanwhile, All-Pro wideout Justin Jefferson has made a habit of torching Detroit's secondary and should do so again.
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Vikings vs Lions live odds
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