Week 8 of the NFL season is already here, and we have an NFC South matchup when the 3-4-0 Atlanta Falcons welcome the 2-5-0 Carolina Panthers with the home side as NFL odds favorites.
Carolina heads into Sunday fresh from a 21-3 home victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Atlanta suffered a 35-17 away defeat at the hands of the Cincinnati Bengals.
Who will win this NFC South matchup? Find out in our free NFL betting picks and predictions for this Week 8 showdown between the Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, October 30.
Panthers vs Falcons best odds
Panthers vs Falcons picks and predictions
Atlanta is a four-point home favorite, and the Falcons -4 is my best bet for this matchup.
Atlanta quarterback Marcus Mariota is having a bit of a resurgence this season. The No. 2 pick of the NFL draft spent five pedestrian seasons with the Tennessee Titans, followed by two seasons with the Las Vegas Raiders, and now finds himself as the starting field general of the Falcons.
Mariota has thrown for 1,157 yards with seven TDs and four interceptions and has thrown for over 200 yards in a game twice with a pair of multiple-TD games. He has rushed for an additional 237 rushing yards and three scores.
TE Kyle Pitts has struggled thus far but wideouts Drake London and Olamide Zaccheaus have been solid with a couple of touchdown receptions apiece but barely over 300 receiving yards each.
Cordarrelle Patterson has missed four games and still leads the team in rushing. Rookie RB Tyler Allgeier scored his first TD as a pro last week, and rookie RB Caleb Huntley has a TD but otherwise mixed results.
The Falcons' defense allows the third-most total yards per game, but they have 10 takeaways this season and more points than the offense averages.
Over the past two weeks, the Panthers have sacked their head coach, traded away star RB Christian McCaffrey and decided to start third-year QB PJ Walker in favor of Baker Mayfield. They are coming off a huge home upset over the struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers and are 2-5-0 this season.
Walker slung it for 297 yards with a pair of scoring strikes last week against Tampa Bay and was sacked just once. Wideout DJ Moore is Walkers' go-to guy, and RB D’Onta Foreman is coming off a 118 rushing-yard game as the Panthers' No. 1 rushing option.
The Panthers' defense allows the 18th most total yards in the game, but the defense has just six takeaways on the season, and like Atlanta, they surrender more points than they usually score.
The Falcons are a consistent team, and that is why they lead the betting markets with a 6-1-0 against the spread record. The offense takes care of the ball, and the defense comes up with a big play with the fourth best special teams unit in DVOA metrics.
Carolina got a boost with Walker and a monster day from Foreman, but I don’t believe it’ll have the same success on the road Sunday as it did at home last week against Tampa Bay. Before last week it had dropped three straight, and the offense was horrible behind Mayfield.
With Walker starting on the road, a stout Falcons rushing defense will thwart Foreman and force Walker to throw. The Atlanta defense will make a play or two and find a way to cover the spread.
My best bet: Falcons -4 (-110 at FanDuel)
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Panthers vs Falcons spread analysis
We’ve already gone through the main reasons the Falcons to cover is my best bet, but here are some additional notes for you to consider.
Carolina has a Bottom-5 offense. Mayfield is responsible for that, but time will tell if Walker is the answer, or maybe he was lucky against Tampa Bay. Your mileage may vary, but I’m leaning toward unexpected.
The Panthers are the worst team in football at converting third downs and up against the worst thir\rd down defense in the game. I’ll take the home team defense because the Carolina offense hasn’t executed very well this season.
Atlanta is fifth in third-down efficiency, meeting a Panthers defense ranked 15th in third-down conversions allowed.
Panthers vs Falcons Over/Under analysis
The total is 41 points, and I would lean Under in this spot.
Both offenses have many unproven players having okay seasons on both sides of the ball.
Atlanta has the ninth-ranked offensive DVOA, while Carolina is 30th. Defensively, the Falcons are 32nd and the Panthers 23rd in defensive DVOA.
The Under is 5-1 in the Panthers' last six against the NFC and 5-1 over their past six games. Conversely, the Under is 6-2 in the Falcons' last six at home and 13-4-1 over their past 18 meetings with Carolina.
The Under is 2-5 over the Panthers' seven contests and 3-4 for Atlanta this season.
Panthers vs Falcons betting trend to know
The Panthers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Atlanta. Find more NFL betting trends for Panthers vs. Falcons.
Panthers vs Falcons game info
| Location: | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Sunday, October 30, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Opening odds: | Falcons -6.5, 41 O/U |
Panthers vs Falcons latest injuries
Panthers vs Falcons weather
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