Although the Carolina Panthers don’t have much to play for in Week 16, the Washington Football Team is busy trying to win the NFC East, as they hold a one-game lead over the Dallas Cowboys for the top spot in the league’s worst division, and NFL betting fans are busy trying to win some late-season picks.
Washington coach Ron Rivera will face his former team for the first time Sunday in what will be his biggest game as a Washington coach. QB Dwayne Haskins started last week – a 20-15 loss to Seattle – but if Alex Smith can get in some practices this week, it will be his offense to run.
Not every book had this game available early in the week as the Washington QB situation makes things unclear. But many respected books opened with the home team as a 2.5-point favorite (44.5 O/U).
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Panthers vs. Washington on Sunday, December 27 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Carolina Panthers at Washington Football Team Betting Preview
Weather
FedEx Field will be a great spot for some late December football with game-time temperatures in the high-30s, clear skies, light wind and a near-zero chance of precipitation. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Panthers: Christian McCaffrey RB (Out), Russell Okung T (Out), Dennis Daley G (Out), Austin Larkin DE (Out), Troy Pride Jr. CB (Out).
Washington: Terry McLaurin WR (Out), Alex Smith QB (Out), Kevin Pierre-Louis LB (Questionable).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog. Find more NFL betting trends for Panthers vs. Washington.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Carolina Panthers may have lost eight of their last nine games and fired their GM on Monday, but Matt Rhule’s Panthers covered again in Week 15—making it three covers over their last four. This is one of the best under-the-radar covering teams in the league as Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last nine as an underdog and 6-0 ATS in its last six on the road. They may not win often, but they keep things close and are never far away from a back-door cover.
The Carolina defense also made some great adjustments last week in Green Bay, as the Packers’ No. 1-ranked offense gained just 54 net yards in the second half.
Even though the Washington offense sits near the bottom of the league, the Carolina offense has enough talent to play catch-up as Robby Anderson and DJ Moore are the only pair of 1,000-yard receivers on the same team in the NFL.
Coach Rivera will be hoping to get QB Alex Smith back this weekend as Dwayne Haskins is 1-4 SU as a starter this year and 3-9 SU over his career. If Haskins can’t shake his mistakes under center, Carolina could be hanging around all game, even against a Top 4-ranked Washington defense.
PREDICTION: Carolina +2.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Carolina has some of the best depth at the receiver position, but QB Teddy Bridgewater’s inconsistencies have limited this offense. Bridgewater may be completing passes at the fourth-highest rate in the league, but he has just 14 passing TDs to show for it.
The Panthers have been leaving points on the board all year as their 52 percent TD scoring percentage in the red zone is better than only four other teams. That TD success rate has fallen even lower since Week 13, where Carolina is scoring TDs on just 30 percent of its red-zone trips.
Washington has hit the Under in three straight games heading into Sunday and is 5-9 O/U on the year. Haskins managed just 4.5 yards per play last week against the Seahawks, which is just under the team’s 4.8 yards per play mark on the season.
Like Carolina, this is an offense that is handicapped by its quarterback play but unlike the Panthers, Washington boasts one of the league’s best-balanced defenses.
Rivera’s defense sits in the Top 10 against both the pass and the run and is allowing fewer than 20 points per game at home this year. Playing low-scoring games is nothing new to the Football Team as Washington is 1-5-1 O/U on totals of 44.5 or less this year.
PREDICTION: Under 44.5 (-110)
Race to Points Prop Pick
With its offense’s propensity of shooting itself in the foot and having to face a Top-4 DVOA defense, per Football Outsiders, reaching 25 points could be a tough task for the Carolina offense: Washington has held its opponents to under 25 points in eight of its last nine games.
The nation's capital has also hit 25 points just once in its last five games itself, and since they haven’t allowed 25 points or more for five straight weeks, the “neither team to 25 points” prop bet is 4-1 SU over that stretch. This prop bet is widely available and can be found under Race to Points.
With Washington's offense struggling to put points on the board and the defense’s ability to frustrate opposing teams, betting for and against the strengths of the Football Team is how we want to spend our Christmas dollars.
PREDICTION: Race to 25 points—Neither team (+130)
Panthers vs Washington Betting Card
- Carolina +2.5 (-110)
- Under 44.5 (-110)
- Race to 25 points—Neither team (+130)
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