Already one of the greatest playoff performers of all time, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes once again aims for a Super Bowl ring as he leads his team against the Houston Texans at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday, November 18.
Against a strong pass defense and with the weather playing a factor, my top NFL picks among the Patrick Mahomes odds explain why his legs may play a key role in the outcome.
Patrick Mahomes player prop picks
- Best bet
Patrick Mahomes longest rush Over 12.5 yards
(-110 at BetMGM) - SGP pick
Mahomes Over 23.5 rushing yards
Mahomes Under 0.5 interceptions
Travis Kelce anytime TD
(525at BetMGM)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Patrick Mahomes prop pick
My best bet
Patrick Mahomes longest rush Over 12.5 yards (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Throughout his career, Patrick Mahomes has been much more likely to scramble in the playoffs than he has during the regular season. In fact, he’s averaging over nine more rushing yards per game during the postseason than he does in regular-season contests.
But Mahomes doesn’t just run for a couple of yards here and there. He’s typically been good for one big chunk play per game. In fact, he’s registered a run of at least 11 yards in five consecutive playoff games dating back to the 2022 season — and four of those runs have gone for 22+ yards.
Mahomes has a run of at least 13 yards in 10 of his last 17 playoff games, as he often looks to make plays with his legs, especially in key situations. And with the frigid temperatures, wind gusts, and a dangerous Houston Texans secondary likely making it tougher to throw the ball, I expect his mobile playmaking ability to be on display.
The Texans faced the seventh-fewest quarterback run plays this season, yet only 10 defenses in the league gave up more rushing yards to signal callers. That includes the 33 yards Mahomes picked up on just five carries a few weeks ago, 15 of which came on one play. Look for history to repeat itself here, in more ways than one.
Patrick Mahomes same-game parlay
Mahomes Over 23.5 rushing yards
Mahomes Under 0.5 interceptions
Travis Kelce anytime TD
While our best bet isn’t eligible for a same-game parlay, his long run will feed into him going Over his rushing total. Yards lost to sacks count against passing yards in the NFL, and Houston has the third-best sack rate in the NFL. Part of him having 33 rushing yards was escaping the Texan pass rush, and he’s likely going to be doing more of that given the offensive line shuffling the Kansas City Chiefs are planning to undergo this weekend.
The Texans made life miserable last week for Justin Herbert, picking him off four times — but two of those picks weren’t his fault. I don’t see that performance translating to this week’s game. Mahomes threw the ball 41 times in last month’s meeting with zero picks, and he’s gone six straight games without throwing an interception. He also has thrown just one over his last seven playoff games.
Mahomes and Travis Kelce will play in their 19th playoff game together this weekend. They’ve connected 142 times in those first 18 contests, with 18 catches going for touchdowns. The tight end is his go-to when he needs a big play in the postseason, and he’s been the target on more than 25% of his quarterback’s red zone throws this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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