Patrick Mahomes Odds and Divisional Round Props: Mahomes and Rice Continue to Cook

Despite the rollercoaster seasons the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills have had this year, they're in similar positions to years past in the Divisional Round odds thanks to having two of the best quarterbacks in recent NFL history.

In Patrick Mahomes’ first true road playoff game, the NFL odds have the Chiefs as 2.5-point underdogs in a matchup that’s not expected to have any snowfall. While the white stuff will be falling leading up to the game — and it will be certainly be cold — it shouldn’t affect the two-time winner of the Super Bowl MVP odds.

You can see how I’m betting on the Patrick Mahomes odds as we dive into the Chiefs vs. Bills odds in my free NFL picks below.

For more NFL playoff coverage, check out our Chiefs vs. Bills predictions and best Chiefs vs. Bills prop picks!

Patrick Mahomes Divisional Round prop picks

• Over 253.5 passing yards
• Over 253.5 passing yards/Over 24.5 completions/R. Rice o69.5 rec yds/R. James o0.5 rec

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Patrick Mahomes Divisional Round prop pick

Patrick Mahomes Over 253.5 passing yards (-110)

Coming off a win against the Miami Dolphins on what can only be described as frozen tundra, Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs offense have the opportunity to win in the freezing cold once again at Highmark Stadium.

Assuming the Buffalo Bills have enough loyal shovelers to get the stadium cleared of snow by the Sunday evening kick, for the first time in his career Mahomes will be in enemy territory entering a playoff game. While he may not be used to playing outside of Arrowhead Stadium in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, he is used to playing in frostbitten conditions.

The weather isn’t something that impacted Mahomes last week, and it shouldn’t this week as long as the sky stays clear. That gives Mahomes a perfect opportunity to add to his playoff resume with this Buffalo squad limping into the matchup. Even though the Bills were able to turn the season around and lock up the No. 2 seed, so much is working against Sean McDermott’s squad in this game.

McDermott’s defense has been impressive against the pass this season. It ranks 11th in EPA per play and seventh in EPA per dropback, and has been even better down the stretch. Since Week 10, it ranks fifth in EPA per play and fourth in EPA per dropback.

However, injuries have started to impact it. Not only has McDermott’s unit lost Matt Milano, Jordan Phillips, and Tre’Davious White to season-ending injuries this year, but in recent weeks starters such as Rasul Douglas, Terrel Bernard, and Christian Benford have been banged up. 

Douglas missed the win last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers but will be back this week, yet that game saw more injuries for this defense. Benford is out against the Chiefs, as is safety Taylor Rapp and backup linebacker Baylon Spector. With Spector out, it makes the injury to Bernard that much more crucial. He didn’t practice Friday and is listed as questionable for the game.

Beyond them, linebacker Tyrel Dodson — who had been filling in for Millano — is dealing with a shoulder injury. Starting nickel Taron Johnson is questionable with a concussion as well. There are a lot of Bills defenders feeling the wear and tear of the season.

That’s started to add up and impact this defense over the last two weeks. In the Week 18 win over the Dolphins and the Wild Card victory over the Steelers, the defense dropped to 13th in EPA per play and 12th in EPA per dropback. 

That’s got to have Mahomes and Andy Reid licking their lips after the Chiefs quarterback threw for 262 yards in -4-degree weather that had a -27 wind chill against the Dolphins.

Even with an offense plagued by drops this year, Mahomes finished ninth in EPA per play, seventh in success rate, and 10th in CPOE. Of all the playoff quarterbacks who took the field last week, he was fourth in EPA per play even with Kansas City feeling more like Antarctica.

Clearly Reid didn’t let the cold deter him from leaning on Mahomes’ arm against the Dolphins, and in an even higher-stakes game in Buffalo, he’s going to trust his two-time MVP to carry this offense.

It may have been a down year by Mahomes’ standards, but the Texas Tech alum still averaged 261.4 passing yards per game and threw for at least 254 yards in nine of 17 games, including the Wild Card round. In his 15-game playoff career, Mahomes has thrown for Over 253.5 yards 13 times.

Prop: Over 253.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

Patrick Mahomes Divisional Round same-game parlay

Patrick Mahomes Over 253.5 passing yards

Patrick Mahomes Over 24.5 completions

Rashee Rice Over 69.5 receiving yards

Richie James Over 0.5 receptions

+425 at bet365

Mahomes hasn’t had his best season and has still willed the Chiefs to the Divisional Round even with many of his pass catchers letting him down this season. The former 10th overall pick has averaged 25 completions per game this season and gone Over 24.5 in eight of 16 regular season games.

For his playoff career, he’s completed at least 25 passes in eight of 15 outings, and this year he’ll get a boost from rookie phenom Rashee Rice. While most of the Chiefs receivers were busy dropping passes from their future Hall of Fame QB, Rice was climbing the depth chart and building trust with Mahomes.

The second-round pick out of SMU was second to just Puka Nacua in receiving yards by a rookie this season and averaged 58.6 per game. As the season went on, it became clear he was the Chiefs’ most reliable pass catcher. Over his last seven games, including the Wild Card win, he’s averaged 92.6 receiving yards per game.

Rice has topped 69.5 receiving yards six times this season, and five of those performances have come in his last seven games. Meanwhile, with Kansas City grasping at straws at the receiver position, Richie James has quietly been taking more snaps.

Both Kadarius Toney and Justyn Ross are questionable for this game and Skyy Moore is out, which means more James. The former undrafted free agent out of Middle Tennessee State is averaging 25.2 snaps per game over the Chiefs last four games.

While he’s not seeing a ton of targets, he’s managed to catch at least one pass in eight of the 10 games he’s played in this year. James has at least one reception in seven straight contests, including last week’s Wild Card game.

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