Patrick Mahomes Odds and SNF Props: Target Mahomes' Rushing Total on Primetime

Although Patrick Mahomes is best known for his gunslinging ways, the quarterback's betting value may be found on the ground this time around when the Kansas City Chiefs invade Lambeau Field on Sunday night. Read more in our latest SNF props.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Dec 3, 2023 • 18:12 ET • 4 min read
Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs NFL
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Patrick Mahomes turned in a get-right performance last week, putting up 298 yards with a pair of touchdowns while posting a 79.4% completion percentage. This week, Mahomes and the Chiefs will travel to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers in the latest SNF odds

Can Mahomes make some more magic in Week 13 odds, or will the Packers keep the Chiefs superstar to a minimum?

Find out as we examine Patrick Mahomes' odds in our latest NFL picks as part of our Chiefs vs. Packers props for Sunday Night Football.

Make sure to also check out our full Chiefs vs. Packers predictions before placing your wagers!

Patrick Mahomes SNF prop picks

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Patrick Mahomes SNF prop pick

Over 20.5 rushing yards (-125)

Over the years, the Green Bay Packers have had their Joe Barry-crafted defense picked apart by many gunslingers.

This year, however, the Packers have held opposing quarterbacks to just 220 yards per game. That mark is good enough for the eight-lowest mark this season, and one they've sustained despite Pro Bowl corner Jaire Alexander appearing in just five games. 

What is more clear, however, is that the Packers tend to surrender a lot of rushing yards to QBs, ranking seventh in that category. That comes despite the fact that they've faced a fair share of pocket passers who rarely move, including the likes of Jared Goff twice (2.1 rushing yards per game), Brett Rypien (2.1 YPG), Kirk Cousins (3.1 YPG), Derek Carr (3.6 YPG), Kenny Pickett (4.6 YPG), and Jimmy Garoppolo (4.9 YPG).

Just two weeks ago, Green Bay even allowed a pocket passer Justin Herbert to take off for a whopping 73 yards. Mahomes has gone over his rushing prop for Sunday in eight of his 11 games this season so far, and he missed that mark in one instance by just half a yard.

Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs QB to do damage with his legs on Sunday night in cold conditions. 

Mahomes Prop: Over 20.5 rushing yards (-125 at PointsBet)

Patrick Mahomes SNF same-game parlay

Patrick Mahomes Over 22.5 rushing yards

Patrick Mahomes Under 0.5 interceptions

Isiah Pacheco Over 66.5 rushing yards

Mahomes may have taken care of the ball through the air last week, but that doesn't necessarily mean that his interception market has become justified overnight. As highlighted in past spotlights, Mahomes' interception market tends to imply that he is a near 50/50 shot to throw (or not to throw) an interception on any given night.

However, that has not been the case. Mahomes already has nine interceptions across 11 games and his 2.2% interception rate this season would mark his career-high as a season-long starter. The Packers have also been decently proficient and picking opposing quarterbacks off, ranking eighth in that category.

To round out this same-game parlay, we'll keep the focus on the Packers' inefficiencies in the ground game. Their 105 rushing yards allowed to opposing running backs per game ranks seventh-worst and some of that certainly has to do with Green Bay's inability to finish tackles.

Enter Isiah Pacheco, who ranks seventh on the year in broken tackles among all running backs. He has gone over his total in two of his last three, and with the Chiefs being six-point road favorites on Sunday night, there are some game-script elements that could favor the second-year back.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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