The Buffalo Bills have won eight of their past nine games and are a huge favorite in their home tilt against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, December 22.
Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen continues to pad his MVP case, and my top Patriots vs. Bills predictions and NFL picks expect the superstar QB to look wide receiver Amari Cooper’s way more often in this Week 16 AFC East tilt.
Patriots vs Bills predictions
- Spread pick: Patriots +14 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Moneyline pick: Bills moneyline (-1000 at BetMGM)
- Over/Under pick: Over 46.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
- Best bet: Amari Cooper Over 34.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Patriots vs Bills spread prediction
This game has a backdoor cover written all over it. The Pats have covered the spread in four of their past seven games, and this is the first time all season they’ve been a double-digit underdog. Additionally, the Bills have a banged-up secondary, and I expect Drake Maye to either keep it within a two-possession game or close the gap in garbage time.
Patriots vs Bills moneyline prediction
With Buffalo still in contention to earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC, I’m confident the Bills will take care of business at home. Buffalo has won eight of its past nine games, while New England has dropped four straight and doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace with or defensive prowess to slow down the Bills.
Patriots vs Bills Over/Under prediction
Both the Patriots (9-4-1) and Bills (9-5) have trended to the Over this season, and as noted, Buffalo probably won’t be 100% healthy on the defensive side. Of course, the Bills have also posted the second-most points per game (31.8) in the league, including averaging 41.7 across their past three.
My best bet
Amari Cooper Over 34.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Buffalo Bills didn’t bring in wide receiver Amari Cooper to play decoy, so I’m not overreacting to him garnering zero looks in the passing game last week.
It’s definitely been hit or miss since the five-time Pro Bowler joined the Bills, but he’s also just a week removed from being targeted 14 times and piling up 95 yards on six catches against the Los Angeles Rams.
The zeros across the Week 15 box score from Cooper have provided an excellent buy-low spot this week, too. This 34.5 receiving yards total is his lowest over the past two seasons, and he’s cleared the benchmark in 18 of 28 games dating back to the beginning of last year.
There’s also another interesting angle here that carries over from last week. Cooper can become the 57th player in NFL history to reach 10,000 career receiving yards with just another 33 in Week 16.
Of course, there’s nothing scary about a date with the New England Patriots, either.
The Pats have surrendered the second-highest EPA per dropback and fourth-highest dropback success rate while allowing a healthy 7.37 yards per target to opposing quarterbacks and 8.24 YPA to opposing wide receivers.
Cooper cashes in on the bounce-back spot in Week 16.
Patriots vs Bills same-game parlay
Bills -6.5 1H
Kendrick Bourne Over 18.5 receiving yards
Amari Cooper Over 34.5 receiving yards
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Patriots vs Bills odds
Patriots vs Bills live odds
Patriots vs Bills opening odds
- Spread: New England +14 | Buffalo -14
- Moneyline: New England +600 | Buffalo -900
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 | Under 44.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Patriots vs Bills spread and Over/Under analysis
- This Buffalo -14 spread hasn’t moved off the opening line at BetMGM. The Bills have only been a double-digit favorite once this season, and they covered the -10 margin at home against the Titans in Week 7.
- New England has a 5-8-1 record against the spread this year, but this is also the largest underdog the Pats have been. For what it’s worth, the Patriots failed to cover the +10.5 spread on the road against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 4, which was the last time they were a double-digit dog.
- Both the Patriots and Bills have trended to the Over this season, and the Bills have gone Over the number in 10 of their last 11 games at Highmark Stadium.
- I’m anticipating New England being able to put points on the board late to push this total Over the number, which will help the Pats pull off the backdoor cover.
Patriots vs Bills betting trend to know
The Bills have hit the game total Over in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+8.90 Units / 74% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Bills.
Patriots vs Bills game info
| Location: | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-22-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Patriots vs Bills latest injuries
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