The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills will meet for the third time this season as the AFC East rivals will look to advance to the Divisional Round with a victory in Buffalo Saturday night. Temperatures are expected in the low-20s, but the wind will be a non-factor and the snow should hold off. This total has started to climb as bettors are realizing the weather shouldn’t be a major factor for either team.
Can Josh Allen throw for another 300 yards against what some think is an overrated New England defense? Can this Patriots offense play to its strength and have success on the ground versus the Bills’ No. 1 defense in EPA/play? Find out in our free player props and predictions for the Patriots vs. Bills.
Patriots vs Bills prop picks
- Josh Allen Over 39.5 rushing yards
- Damien Harris anytime touchdown
- Jakobi Meyers Over 4.5 receptions
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Patriots vs Bills Wild Card props
Allen’s wheels
Josh Allen’s legs have been working just fine in the winter weeks as the Buffalo signal-caller has rushed for at least 60 yards in four of his last five games. He took off 12 times for 63 rushing yards in New England just three weeks ago and has had three double-digit run games since Week 14. Allen has played four playoff games in his career and has topped 50 yards rushing in all but one of them — against Baltimore whose defense knows how to play against rushing QBs.
Allen has plenty of weapons in the passing game with the emergence of Gabriel Davis and Isaiah McKenzie. And with Brian Daboll having no problems giving Allen some designed runs, we’re expecting the QB to show off his wheels at home on Saturday. The New England defense will have to choose between the Buffalo receivers or Allen's legs.
Allen’s rushing total opened at 39.5 yards and is an easy Over for us despite being a five-week high. Allen is 4-1 to the Over on this total over his last five games. According to sharpside.com, FanDuel opened this number at 27.5 yards but it was taken down quickly afterward. We'd hit this Over up to 44 to 46 yards.
With Devin Singletary not used as a stereotypical lead back, the Bills’ running game is supplemented by the swift-footed QB. We’ve seen Allen try to do too much at times and although that might hurt his team, it can be a great thing for his rushing prop. This number is seven yards too short and is our favorite prop bet in this game.
PICK: Josh Allen Over 39.5 rushing yards (-130 at DraftKings)
All shall Harris
The Patriots won the first meeting with the Bills thanks to a successful running game during the windiest game of the season. Damien Harris had 111 rushing yards and a TD on 10 carries before an injury cut his day short. He came back three weeks later and totaled 118 rushing yards and a trio of TDs at home versus Buffalo. Harris is back in a timeshare with rookie running back Rhamondre Stevenson, but it should be Harris who gets the important touches near the goal line.
Harris saw four of the Pats’ six red-zone carries last week versus the Dolphins and has 13 carries inside the 20 over the last three weeks. Harris will be leaned on heavily as Bill Belichick will want to control the clock and stop this game from turning into a shootout.
Over the last two weeks, Harris has just 72 yards on 20 carries but has still scored three TDs thanks to an extensive role in the red zone. Harris has 15 TDs over his 15 games this season and if the Patriots get near the end zone, expect the Pats to pound Harris and play it safe with a rookie QB.
The Bills have an elite pass defense that ranks first in EPA/play and second in success rate. Belichick knows the best way to beat the Bills is on the ground and he’s done it once already this season. This might be the best TD price on the board for Saturday’s slate considering Joe Mixon is -145 to score a touchdown.
PICK: Damien Harris anytime touchdown (+125 at bet365)
Take me Meyers
Since Week 14, New England receiver Jakobi Meyers leads the team with a 26.7% target share and has 19 more targets than the next receiver. He led Patriots pass-catchers in targets (eight), catches (six), and yards (59) in the last meeting with Buffalo and has seen at least eight targets in four straight weeks.
Meyers has become Mac Jones’ favorite safety blanket as the receiver is averaging just 8.0 air yards per reception, so the third-year receiver isn’t getting too far away from his QB. That's likely a good thing against Buffalo’s elite pass defense. He had just one catch longer than 15 yards in the previous meeting and just two catches of 30 yards or more on the season. Jones won’t be taking many shots against this defense, leaving Meyers to soak up all the receptions underneath.
Meyers is currently sitting with a reception total of 4.5 for +120. He’s topped this number in three of his last four games and had a receiving total of 5.5 as recently as Week 8. If New England falls behind early, this prop could be a layup. Meyers lines up in the slot and out wide giving him more opportunities to exploit some favorable matchups.
PICK: Jakobi Meyers Over 4.5 receptions (+130 at Caesars)
Same-Game parlay for Patriots vs Bills
- Over 43.5
- Isaiah McKenzie anytime touchdown
- Hunter Henry anytime touchdown
Best odds: +4,600 at bet365
The majority of same-game parlays are -EV plays but that doesn’t mean they aren’t great bets from a recreational standpoint and can add to the excitement of the game.
Sharp money has driven this total up to as high as 44.5 points after opening at 43. The weather will be cold but it shouldn’t suppress the passing game that much. Points could be scored and we’re pairing the Over 43.5 with a couple of our favorite mid- to long-shot TD plays.
Isaiah McKenzie roasted the Pats for an 11/125/1 and has seen more goal-line work of late than Cole Beasley. He won't have an every-down role, hence the price, but he is the better talent in the slot. He is paying 11/1 to score and is worth a speculative sprinkle by himself. We’re also adding Hunter Henry, as he's been a TD magnet inside the 20 this season and leads New England with nine receiving TDs. It’s not easy to find +4,600 odds with an Over and two decent shots at a TD.
