It hasn't been the best summer for the New England Patriots who replaced offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels with one defensive-minded coach and another special teams coach.
Now the sharp betting community is piling on the Miami Dolphins ahead of the Week 1 matchup in the Florida heat and late bettors are left asking themselves what this New England offense might be Sunday.
Find out where my best bet lies in my NFL picks and predictions for Patriots vs. Dolphins.
Patriots vs Dolphins best odds
Patriots vs Dolphins picks and predictions
There hasn’t been a lot of great news out of the New England camp regarding the offense. In the only game that Mac Jones played, he went 13-for-21 with an ugly interception. Jones lost his first-year OC in Josh McDaniels and is now being led by Joe Judge and Matt Patricia — both of whom were fired as head coaches and neither of whom have been an OC.
Last season, Jones finished with 13 interceptions (plus two in the playoffs) including one vs. the Dolphins in Week 18. He finished 19th in on-target percentage which included 23rd on short passes, 26th on medium passes, and 25th on planted passes.
Miami averaged 1.2 picks per game at home last season and could be facing a more pass-heavy New England offense now that Bill Belichick has scrapped the fullback and the 21-personnel.
The book is out on Jones and teams are going to bait him into passing more. THE BLITZ projects the New England receivers to top their receiving yard totals and Jones to go Over his passing yard total by roughly 30 yards which is a good play by itself.
With the increase in a passing game script coupled with sour reports on the new OC situation and Jones’ readiness for Year 2, I’m getting down on Jones’ Over 0.5 interceptions at -110. In his last game vs. the Bills last season, Jones’ INT prop opened at -140.
My best bet: Mac Jones Over 0.5 interceptions (-110 at BetMGM)
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Patriots vs Dolphins betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
The Dolphins were 2.5-point favorites for most of the summer, hit -3 in late August, and then had a release on them at -3 this Tuesday that sent the line to -3.5.
A lot of this has to do with the talk of the New England offense that hasn’t received many favorable quotes over the summer prep months.
Josh McDaniels has moved to Vegas, while Matt Patricia (former Patriots DC) and Joe Judge (former Patriots special teams coordinator) are somehow sharing the new OC duties.
There are reports out of New England that Mac Jones has come into this season underprepared from the Athletic’s Chad Graff. Coupled with the new OC situation, this isn’t giving bettors a ton of confidence with the New England offense that has to travel to the Florida heat and move the ball against a defense that finished eighth in EPA per play a season ago and added Melvin Ingram.
If New England has to play catch up Sunday, this Miami pass rush could have a big day vs. Jones.
The knock on the Dolphins’ offense last season was the horrible O-line. Pro Football Focus graded the Dolphins as the worst pass-blocking team last season, but Miami upgraded in a big way with the additions of center Connor Williams (10th/82, per PFF) and Terron Armstead (26th/83, per PFF).
The O-line bolstering should give Tua Tagovailoa some more time in the pocket which, despite the talking points of many, favor the QB who had a 65% on-target percentage last season on deep passes — the third-best number in football.
Add in a Mike McDaniel-led offense that has Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Cedrick Wilson, Mike Gesicki, and the running back tandem of Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert, and the Dolphins' offense should take a big step forward this season.
Finally, the Patriots’ defense is likely heading for regression from last season. They lost corner J.C. Jackson as well as Dont’a Hightower (15 games started last season) and showed how slow they were in the 47-17 loss to the Bills in the playoffs last season. Now it faces Mike McDaniel who led the league in yards per play a season ago in San Francisco and has plenty of offensive weapons.
The best path the Dolphins have at covering is forcing Mac Jones to beat them while the Pats can cover if they lean on their elite run game.
Miami won both games last year including a 33-24 win at home in Week 18 as 6-point dogs. These teams met in the opener last season as well with the Dolphins winning 17-16 as a 3.5-point road dog.
Over/Under analysis
This total opened right at the key number of 44 and has moved north to 45.5.
Despite not having a pass-catcher top 900 yards in 2021, the Patriots scored more points than the Bengals, Packers, Cardinals, and Colts. They’re also doing away with the fullback position (Jakob Johnson went to Las Vegas) meaning fewer heavy sets from the 21 personnel.
The Dolphins will make a jump offensively this year with Tagovailoa another year removed from his hip injury, Mike McDaniel taking over, the addition of Hill, and the upgrades on the O-line. With more time in the pocket, the Miami QB could be dangerous vs. New England corners Jonathan Jones (2021 slot corner) and Jalen Mills (graded 57th/119 per PFF).
The Miami heat could also have an effect on the game as it does early in the season. These issues can create more problems for defenses who can’t get off the field.
The reports on Jones and the offense are likely warranted as Judge and Patricia are likely not the best combo for an offense that lacks passing weapons, but if Jones can work off this strong running game and improve on his play-action EPA/attempt numbers from last year (21st), New England could stack explosive plays vs. a Miami defense that allowed the seventh-most explosive plays a season ago. Miami will be without corner Byron Jones who started 16 games last year.
Looking at turnovers, both offenses finished in the bottom half of the league in giveaways per game while each defense averaged at least 1.5 takeaways per game.
Patriots vs Dolphins game info
• Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
• Date: Sunday, September 11, 2022
• Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Patriots vs Dolphins key injuries
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Patriots vs Dolphins betting trend to know
The Patriots are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 meetings in Miami. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Dolphins.
