A pair of AFC East rookie quarterbacks will battle as Mac Jones and the New England Patriots head to East Rutherford to take on Zach Wilson and the New York Jets.
The Jets haven’t beat the Patriots in regulation since the 2010 AFC Divisional playoffs, as New England is 19-4 SU since the beginning of the 2010 season vs. Gang Green, but can all the changes New York has made pay off in Week 2 at home? Find out with our free NFL betting Patriots vs. Jets picks and predictions.
Patriots vs Jets odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
New England opened as a 3.5-point favorite on the lookahead but moved to -5.5 on Monday morning. They then moved as high as -6.5 on Wednesday with a few -5.5s available. Most books are sitting at a -6. The total opened at 43 points and has fallen a full point to 42.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Patriots vs Jets picks
Picks made on 9/15/2021 at 5:51 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Patriots vs Jets game info
• Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
• Date: Sunday, September 19, 2021
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Patriots at Jets betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key injuries
Patriots: Trent Brown OL (Out), N’Keal Harry WR (Out), Stephon Gilmore CB (Out), Quinn Nordin K (Out), Kyle Van Noy LB (Out), Rhamondre Stevenson RB (Out).
Jets: Mekhi Becton T (Out), Lamarcus Joyner S (Out), Jamison Crowder WR (Out), Braden Mann P (Out), Denzel Mims WR (Out), Josh Adams RB (Out), La'Mical Perine RB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 8-1 in the Pats’ last nine games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Jets.
Patriots vs Jets predictions
New England -6 (-105)
Mac Jones started his NFL career with a tough loss and failed to cover as 3.5-point home favorites versus the Dolphins last week. The Pats managed 393 total yards of offense compared to Miami’s 259 yards but a Damien Harris fumble inside Miami territory in a one-point game with under five minutes left sealed their fate.
Jones was the first rookie QB to start for New England since Drew Bledsoe in 1993. Despite the lack of points, Jones finished solidly with 281 yards on 29 of 39 passing and a TD, and now faces a New York defense that allowed Sam Darnold to throw for 279 yards and score two TDs — one passing and one rushing.
Where New England really has the advantage is versus the New York o-line. Wilson looked very much like a 2020 Darnold having to run for his life on the majority of passing plays and taking a total of six sacks versus the Panthers. Wilson was the fourth-most under pressure QB in Week 1. The Pats generated a team sack percentage of 6.9 Sunday versus the Dolphins and the front seven could be in for a big game now that starting LT Mekhi Becton has been ruled out for the Jets. The Pats didn’t blitz much last Sunday (17.2 percent), but Wilson should see more pressure in Week 2 and have less tape available to game plan against.
The New England run game looked solid last weekend despite a pair of lost fumbles from Harris and rookie Rhamondre Stevenson. The backfield still ran for 4.2 yards per carry and 125 yards while the offense outgained the Dolphins 5.6 yards per play to 5.0. New England also ran 70 plays compared to 52 for the Dolphins. Harris and Stevenson could be in the doghouse with the fumbles, but J.J. Taylor is a real option after impressing in the preseason. As for the Jets’ ground game, they managed just 2.6 yards per carry against the Panthers in Week 1 and should struggle to run the ball Sunday.
New England gets the advantage in its DL vs OL matchup and looked like the more capable team versus a tougher opponent a week ago. Belichick has a great track record against rookie QBs and Mac Jones also gets an upgrade with New York safety Lamarcus Joyner out with a torn tricep. If New England can crackdown on the penalties (eight for 84 yards in Week 1) and turnovers, it should even up its ATS record at 1-1.
Under 42 (-110)
The Patriots and Jets come into Sunday with the second-lowest total on the board at 42. Both teams crushed their Unders by double-digits last Sunday and the way the total is moving, bettors and books think Week 2 could be a repeat.
The Jets’ offense was consistently playing behind the sticks and had zero success running the ball, with the NYJ running backs compiling 45 yards on 17 carries. The Jets and Wilson averaged 4.2 yards per play against a Carolina defense that posted the 24th-ranked defense in DVOA a season ago. The Jets finished the 2020 season averaging 4.7 yards per play which was the worst mark in all of football. Getting behind this offense right now with how pressured Wilson was and the injuries to the o-line is likely not the right move.
The Pats’ offense had the 14th-best YPP of 5.6 in Week 1. However, Jones and the offense managed just a single TD despite four trips to the red zone and a heavy advantage in yards and time of possession. New England wins that Week 1 game more times than not, but this is an offense that has Nelson Agholor as the best pass-catcher and may bench its top two running backs after some costly turnovers.
It’s the Under 42 for us in this AFC East showdown.
New England Over 2.5 field goals (+240)
The Patriots’ offense had plenty of chances to put up points versus the Dolphins and had the ball inside Miami’s 40-yard line in six of its eight total drives. New England could be getting into the attacking zone at an even higher rate on Sunday as New York is without its No. 1 punter and had to sign Thomas Morstead off the street this week. Morstead set career lows in average punt length and longest punt last year with New Orleans. The Jets punted six times inside their own 30-yard line last week and could be giving away fantastic field position all day Sunday.
New England’s Nick Folk made all three of his field goals last week and made 26 of 28 a season ago. If this offense continues to stall out or Jones struggles to score in the red zone again, New England could be settling for chip shots.
The Patriots to hit two or field goals is paying -140 which might entice a few, but we’re eying the Over 2.5 FGs for a robust +240 which is a great price.
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