NFL Underdogs: NFL Picks and Predictions Week 14

The countdown to Christmas is coming at you like a runaway Polar Express, which means the pressure is on to wrap up your holiday gift giving wish lists.

The big debate facing yuletide shoppers is the same sticky scenario troubling NFL bettors this time of year: quantity versus quality. 

Do you buy a bunch of cheaper gifts or a few really nice ones? Do you grab the pile of points with crap teams or look for NFL point spread picks on competitive clubs as short underdogs? 

If the past two weeks are any evidence, short NFL underdog picks are the gift that keeps on giving. And big pups, well… enjoy your off-brand smart watch. I’m sure it’ll work fine.

Underdogs of six points or more are just 2-9 ATS, with double-digit dogs going 0-3 ATS, the past two weeks of NFL betting. All other dogs (+5.5 or shorter) are a collective 12-6 ATS.

The narrative makes sense: big underdogs are typically bad teams or teams with little to play for while the shorter dogs are likely stronger sides still in the postseason hunt or at least keeping things competitive. 

The Week 14 NFL underdogs should help reinforce this theory with a wide array of spread sizes on the board. There are currently six teams catching six or more points and two double-digit dogs. Here are my favorite picks and predictions getting the points.

NFL picks against the spread for Week 14

• Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) at Minnesota Vikings
• Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team (+4.5)
• Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) at Minnesota Vikings pick

Nothing takes the shine off a team like losing to the Lions. 

The Minnesota Vikings don’t have to wait long to get that nasty taste out of their mouths, with a quick turnaround for Thursday Night Football in Week 14. 

I usually skip over the midweek game, as this column comes out on Thursdays, but I’m really not in love with many underdogs on the board right now and I just can’t pass up playing against the Vikes as favorites once again.

Heading into this homestand, Minnesota has seen 11 of its total 12 games be decided by one score. Those close contests have turned out solid profits as a pup (5-1 ATS as an underdog) but have been the kiss of death when laying the points (1-4 ATS as faves).

The short week doesn’t help with star WR Adam Thielen out with an ankle sprain and RB Dalvin Cook once again questionable with a shoulder injury. That puts more pressure on Kirk Cousins’ shoulders Thursday night and the primetime spotlight hasn’t been kind to the quarterback, with an 8-17 SU mark in those featured games.

As for the Steelers, they just won’t die. Pittsburgh threw a wrench into the AFC North machine with a win over the rival Ravens last Sunday and while this defense is not on par with past Pittsburgh stop units, it still leads the league in sacks with 37 (just ahead of Minnesota).

The Vikings’ offensive line has kept Cousins clean for the most part in 2021 (only 18 sacks) but teams have gotten pressure on the purple passer on 26.6% of dropbacks (fifth-most) and the protection ranks just 27th in pass block win rate (54%). 

Detroit’s toothless pass rush busted through the Vikings' o-line like frenzied Xmas shoppers going after the last PS5 on the shelf, recording two sacks, two QB hits and 13 pressures in last Sunday's upset. Just imagine what T.J. Watt will do Thursday night.

PICK: Pittsburgh +3.5 (-110)

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team (+4.5) pick

I am a Dallas fan and as sure as there will be some Cowboys gear under the tree on December 25, you can also bank on America’s Team having trouble on the road in the final month of the schedule. Since 2000, the Cowboys have covered in just 37% of their road games between Week 13 and Week 17. 

Dallas did pick up a SU and ATS road win inside the Superdome last Thursday but now plays its second straight road game outdoors in Washington, where the red-hot football team awaits. Game-time temperatures aren’t that chilly, but this WFT attack will put the Dallas offense on ice.

Washington’s has been grinding out gains on the ground during its four-game winning streak, averaging 137 rushing yards per contest, and it looks like that RPO attack will have both RBs Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic (concussion) healthy for Week 14.

More importantly, the Washington offense will continue to eat up the clock like it was Candy Cane Hersey Kisses (if you haven’t yet, don’t start). It’s boasting an average TOP of 37:36 during this streak and leaving opponents with less than 50 offensive plays per game.

That’s a two-hit combo to the Cowboys’ jaws, with the defense struggling to slow the run in the last five outings - 715 total rushing yards allowed (4.7 yards per carry) – while losing the TOP battle in that span and leaving the offense just 27 minutes with the ball. 

Dallas has watched its offensive efficiency sink like a stone since Week 9, ranking 21st in EPA per play (-0.062) and owning a success rate of just 38.2% in those last five games – third lowest in the NFL. The Cowboys may get just enough time to squeak out a win but not enough to cover this spread.

PICK: Washington +4.5 (-110)

Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) at Arizona Cardinals pick

Slapping around the lowly Jaguars for 60 minutes doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things, but Los Angeles’ Week 13 cakewalk showed that there’s nothing fundamentally wrong with the Rams. 

It seemed like the sky was falling in L.A. when this team stumbled through a winless November, but honestly, there’s no shame in losing at Lambeau or dropping a divisional road game against a hated rival. 

Sure, Matt Stafford’s turnover woes were worrying. But some of that could have been on the veteran QB’s janky back (we’re all getting older) as well as the fact that the Rams were forced to play from behind by at least 10 points by the second quarter in each of those three losses – making the offense one-dimensional with the passing game trying to play catch-up. 

One thing we did see come out of the Jacksonville game was Sean McVay’s return to the play-action playbook. The last two seasons, with Jared Goff under center, no team in the NFL ran more play-action pass attempts than Los Angeles. 

According to Pro Football Focus, 12 of Stafford’s 38 pass attempts were on play action this past Sunday. That’s nearly 15% of the total play-action attempts on the season for this passing attack (81). And when the Rams do roll out a rare play-action pass, they pick up almost 11 yards per attempt. 

Los Angeles is in a good spot to utilize that return to play action against Arizona’s defense, especially if the Rams can grab gains on the ground early on against a Cardinals run stop unit that ranks 29th in run stop win rate at ESPN (28%) and 25th in rushing play success allowed (43.1%).

The L.A. ground attack ranks ninth in both EPA per handoff and run success rate since Week 9 and after keeping dinged-up RB Darrell Henderson on the sideline in Week 13, the Rams have a capable combo of Henderson and Sony Michel rumbling behind an offensive line that owns the fifth-best run block win rate (72%) in the league. 

McVay beefed up the Rams’ run blocking versus the Jags, inserting tackle Joe Noteboom at tight end on some series. That paid off with 128 yards on just 27 carries (4.7 yards per attempt) versus a Jacksonville defense that ranks ninth in yards allowed per carry (4.1). 

A healthy dose of the run will keep Arizona’s aggressive pass rush off Stafford’s ass and open up space and big shots over the top on play-action passes, as well as chew up the clock and limit the number of touches Kyler Murray gets. 

The Rams, who have a 37-20 loss in Week 4 to avenge, have owned Arizona at home in recent meetings. McVay is 4-0 SU and ATS on the road against Arizona during his tenure with Los Angeles.

PICK: L.A. Rams +2.5 (-110)

Last week: 2-1 ATS +0.78 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
Season: 21-18 ATS +0.72 units (Risking 1 unit per play)

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