Almost everything went according to plan when it came to NFL betting last week.
Point spread favorites won 13 of the 14 games (two games closed at pick’em), and those faves covered the chalk in 11 of those contests.
While that’s a great finish for the betting public, it’s a rough way to wrap up the year when you write an NFL picks column called “NFL Underdogs”.
In fact, backing the underdogs each week has been rough sledding for the better part of this NFL schedule. Favorites are covering at a 58% clip since Week 5, including a 37-21-1 ATS record the past four weeks (64%).
Luckily, we can buck those boring results in Week 18. The final week of the regular season is always an enigmatic slate of games, with motivations mixed for teams, coaches, and players.
Chaos and unpredictability loom large on the odds board, which could be why underdogs are a collective 74-66-4 ATS in season finales since 2015. That 53% cover rate isn’t much, but it’s a beacon of hope for those who love to take the points, especially after the past three months.
To steal a line from Heath Ledger’s infamous Joker, “I'm an agent of chaos. Oh, and you know the thing about chaos? It's fair!”
Let’s hope chaos can get my regular season record in the black and set the tone for a profitable postseason.
Last week: 0-3 ATS
Season 24-24 ATS
NFL Week 18 predictions and picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2)
My pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +2
(-112 at DraftKings)
The last time these two butted heads, there were 82 points on the scoreboard.
Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin knows that’s not the best way to survive the Cincinnati Bengals and secure the No. 5 seed in the AFC, which would send the Steelers to Houston rather than battling in Baltimore in the Wild Card Round.
In order to set that softer path, Tomlin needs his stop unit to shape up and play with postseason intensity.
Pittsburgh’s defense has been off the tracks in recent weeks, slipping to 24th in EPA allowed per play since Week 12 after ranking seventh in that advanced metric in the opening 11 weeks.
Tomlin addressed the defense’s issue this week, pointing to personal changes, injuries, and in-fighting among players as the root of those struggles. Those bugaboos were exacerbated by a nutty second-half sked that had the Steelers on the road in five of seven games since Week 10 while also cramming Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Kansas City into an 11-day window.
Now, the team is coming off a mini bye after playing last Wednesday and back in Acrisure Stadium, where it boasts the third-lowest points per play metric in the land (0.288).
Mix in the motivation, some classic East Coast winter (forecast calls temperatures to “feel like” 7 degrees with wind gusts flirting with 30 mph), and the fact Tomlin is an 83% ATS winner as a divisional home pup (9-1-2 ATS), and I’m taking points with Pittsburgh on Saturday night.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (+1.5)
My pick: Houston Texans +1.5
(-110 at bet365)
Most teams parked in the standings with a postseason ticket in hand would be sleepwalking in Week 18. The Houston Texans, however, need a wake-up call.
With the shit state of the AFC South, Houston has essentially been on cruise control since October and runs the risk of backing into the playoffs in bad form.
The Texans were absolutely smoked on Xmas Day, losing 31-2 to the Ravens to drop to 3-5 SU in their last eight games. That slump has head coach DeMeco Ryans prepared to play his starters in a “meaningless” matchup with the Titans.
Houston needs something positive before the postseason, and Ryans is the first to admit there are several areas in which the team needs to improve before the tournament — namely, the run game and offensive line.
A ground-heavy approach could work wonders against the “worst bet in NFL history”. Tennessee, which brings a 2-14 ATS blackhole into Week 18, sits among the softest run-stop units in the second half of the season.
Adding a little incentive to suck is Tennessee’s draft order. The Titans are currently No. 2 on the board with a shot at the No. 1 overall pick (should New England beat the Bills), but a win in Week 18 could see Tennessee plummet as far as No. 7 in the draft order if all the cards fall against them.
With motivations mixed, I’ll take the points with the Texans and hope Ryans tries to pump up the positives before the playoffs.
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Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3)
My pick: Minnesota Vikings +3
(-115 at BetMGM)
This Sunday Night Football showdown is one hell of a way to close out the regular season.
The Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions will fight for the top spot in the NFC and a valuable bye into the divisional round, along with home field through the conference tournament. The loser will slip to the No. 5 seed and likely travel for a tricky game in Tampa Bay (should the Bucs -13.5 win in Week 18).
Detroit has been ducking punches like Money Mayweather in the home stretch of the schedule, making up for a slew of defensive injuries with an outpouring of offense. The Lions, admittedly, have been helped along by some softer stop units in this stretch.
Minnesota has been one of the best two-way teams all season and after 17 weeks, I think we can put the Sam Darnold doubts to bed. He had a big game against Detroit when the Lions' defense was in working order back in Week 7 and now faces a shattered shell of that stop unit.
Detroit is dead last in EPA allowed per dropback and 30th in opponent success rate per pass since Week 13. That’s left the Lions to play with fire in this stretch, with four of those five games decided by six points or less.
The Vikes are one of the rare pups playing for something in Week 18, and that’s good enough for me at the field goal.
More NFL Week 18 predictions
- Browns vs. Ravens: Ravens first half -10.5
- Bengals vs. Steelers: Najee Harris Over 45.5 rushing yards
- Bears vs. Packers: Jordan Love Under 222.5 passing yards
- Vikings vs. Lions: Jared Goff 3+ passing TDs
- Jaguars vs. Colts: Jaguars +5
- Seahawks vs. Rams: Seahawks -6.5
- Giants vs. Eagles: Jake Elliott Over 1.5 extra points
- Texans vs. Titans: Calvin Ridley Over 62.5 receiving yards
- Bills vs. Patriots: Patriots moneyline
Not intended for use in MA.
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