Halloween is hiding just around the corner, but Week 7 of the season looks like Christmas morning for those who love betting on NFL underdogs: Just look at all those points!
The Week 7 odds board is bursting with big spreads — +17.5, +15, and +12.5 — with the average handicap just under a touchdown. But all big spreads are big for a reason: bad teams.
And boy howdy do we have some bad ones this year.
I’ve always had trouble trusting big dogs, knowing that you were asking a terrible team to be just a little less terrible in order to cover the spread. I’d rather put my faith in a competent contender, knowing that there’s a capacity for improvement rather than just not sucking as much.
So, I dodge the big dogs with my NFL Week 7 point spread picks, like we’re cutting through Milo Pressman’s junkyard. Instead, I’ll stick with some undervalued underdogs that provide more competition than cushion on the scoreboard.
NFL Underdogs Week 7 picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Philadelphia Eagles (+3) at Las Vegas Raiders pick
I knew this spread would creep from Eagles +3 to +3.5, but I hoped it would stick around long enough to make the column pick. Unfortunately, it did not. Philly +3.5 was a shooting star across the odds board that burnt up and quickly dropped back to a field goal — and could continue dropping with Eagles +3 (-115) out there indicating a potential move to +2.5.
I don’t like this spot for the Raiders, who lug the emotional baggage of Week 6 back to Sin City (Jon Gruden’s scandal and dismissal, desperate road win at Denver). Vegas was able to tune out some of that noise on the road last week but now return home to the spotlight of the media and life post-Chuckie.
Philadelphia is a tough matchup on paper for the Silver and Black as well. The Eagles don’t give up many big plays – something that’s kept Las Vegas afloat – and they’ve enjoyed a mini bye to prep for this Week 7 opponent. The Raiders shaken-up staff is left to scramble to gameplan for this foreign non-conference foe without the offensive mastermind of Gruden in the room.
Another reason I like the Eagles here is the fact that Las Vegas is one of the rare teams out there that can match Philadelphia in penalty yardage. Yep, just like Philly, the Raiders are known for shooting themselves in the foot with infractions (Eagles 382 penalty yards vs. Raiders 400 penalty yards). However, the Eagles are starting to get those errors under control (only four penalties in Week 6, including a weak-ass taunting call) and are a completely different defense when not handing over free yardage.
PICK: Eagles +3 (-110)
Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) at Baltimore Ravens pick
This is a tough spot for the Bengals, playing their second straight road game against a team entrenched at home for the immediate future. But I can’t deny what Cincinnati is doing and this is far too many points for an important divisional matchup.
The Bengals are 4-2, with those two losses each coming by three points, and fresh off a dominating performance over the Lions last week. Some will poo-poo pounding Detroit, but Cincy smashed them 34-11 as 3.5-point road chalk (those 11 points came in garbage time) and is only getting stronger on offense.
Since Week 4, Cincinnati owns an offensive EPA per play of +0.153, just behind the likes of Kansas City, Buffalo, and Dallas. The Bengals are doing so with a balanced attack, throwing the ball on just 56.38 percent of snaps, averaging 6.3 yards per play, and hogging the football for 32:22 in time of possession.
On the other side of the ball, the Bengals have quietly built the No. 5-ranked DVOA defense at Football Outsiders, with an EPA per play of just -0.033 (seventh lowest). The Ravens were able to run all over the Chargers’ soft rushing defense last week but run into a Cincy stop unit budging for just 3.9 yards per carry and checking foes to a rushing success rate of 33.3 percent.
Conversely, the Bengals' run game could roll over this Ravens defense with the two-headed monster of Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine, as well as budding short-passing option RB Chris Evans (that’s right — Captain America baby!), who has 108 yards receiving and a touchdown on eight catches this year.
Baltimore’s defense has been just as banged up as its offense, ranking middle of the pack in most advanced metrics. Last week’s stunning win over Los Angeles has the Ravens’ stock high — too high to be near-touchdown faves — and banged-up Baltimore could also be counting down the minutes to a much-need bye in Week 8. That's been circled on the calendar since players started dropping like flies back in the summer.
PICK: Bengals +6.5 (-115)
Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans (+5.5) pick
The Chiefs are going to turn this thing around. They always do. Kansas City is a 3-3 team with an incredible offense, a piss-poor defense that can only improve, and some bad luck in the form of an NFL-high 14 turnovers.
A few twists of the wrench here, a little rest and rehab there, and a sprinkle of that classic Andy Reid magic should have K.C. right as rain soon enough. Unfortunately for Chiefs bettors, the bye doesn’t come until Week 12 — but K.C. does get a longer break next week due to the Monday matchup with New York.
In the meanwhile, enjoy getting roughed up by the Titans.
Tennessee tossed its hat back into the AFC title ring with a strong showing against the Bills on Monday night. The Titans have been playing a little catch-up on offense since the summer — due to coaching changes, COVID and injuries — but flexed their scoring muscle by hanging 34 points on a Buffalo defense that entered Week 6 with a league-best -0.265 EPA per play through five games.
The Chiefs stop unit is way down at the bottom of those metrics and enters Sunday playing its second straight road game with a laundry list of ailments up and down the defense (five of the 11 defensive starters carry questionable designations as of Thursday).
Stuffing the run — maybe just even slowing the run — will be priority No. 1 for Kansas City, which gives up 5.2 yards per carry and allows a 51.7 percent success rate to opposing rushing attacks. Tennessee isn’t just any old rushing attack either... and Derrick Henry will have just as big an impact on offense as he does on defense, thanks to all the clock chewed up in TOP. And Tennessee needs a little help with some injuries in the secondary.
Kansas City will be “Kansas City” at some point in the near future... but for now, it’s just a 3-3 team with wins over Washington, Philadelphia, and Cleveland.
PICK: Titans +5.5 (-115)
Last week: 1-2 ATS -1.12 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
Season: 12-6 ATS +4.69 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
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