NFL Underdogs: NFL Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 7

I feel like Paula Abdul dancing with a cartoon cat through six weeks of NFL picks and predictions. I take two steps forward. I take two steps back. 

Don’t get that reference? Eh, Google it and blame me later for having “Opposites Attract” stuck in your head.

I followed a 3-0 ATS Week 5 with a winless 0-3 ATS Week 6 for my NFL Underdogs bets, leaving me with an 8-10 ATS record heading into my Week 7 NFL bets. My up-and-down start to 2022 reflects the outcomes of many NFL teams so far this season. 

It’s been tough for anyone to string wins together, outside of a handful of clubs. Teams coming off a win are just 38-39 SU and 37-38-2 ATS and teams coming off a loss are posting a 40-37 SU count with a 37-36-4 ATS outcome.

However, make those teams an underdog, and clubs coming off a victory are 21-16-2 ATS (57%) and underdogs coming off a loss are 22-14-1 ATS (61%). Overall, point spread pups are 52-38-3 ATS (57.5%), which makes me feel even worse for being in the red with my underdog wagers.

But if those roller-coaster results hold up, we should be in for a windfall in NFL Week 7. Here are my top NFL underdog bets.

NFL picks against the spread for Week 7

• Giants +3.5
• Colts +3
• 49ers +3

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

New York Giants (+3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars pick

Maybe I’m late to the party on the Giants, with the cushy part of the schedule over and New York bound for regression on the road in Week 7. Or maybe… just maybe, the Giants are a good team.

Wild take, I know. 

If we peel the sticker off the helmet, we find a 5-1 SU team with an offense that ranks out among the likes of Kansas City and Buffalo in EPA per play the past three games. This mystery team is doing the little things right, like converting on third down (48.72% L3 weeks) and cashing in when inside the red zone (63.64% L3 weeks). 

We also find a defense that just handed two former MVP quarterbacks one of their worst games of the season so far, and now faces a second-year passer that’s coming undone.

Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence looked to be turning a corner in the first three outings of 2022 but has since looked “Urban bad” in the last three games. Lawrence ranks out as the fourth-worst quarterback in EPA + CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) and this Wink Martindale defense could pile on those problems Sunday. 

Lawrence faces an aggressive blitz-happy scheme, generating pressure on almost 25% of dropbacks and bringing extra pass rushes on 42.5% of those snaps. Lawrence has not played well under pressure, completing only 40.4% of attempts and averaging a mere 4.7 yards per pass under duress along with three interceptions. 

Jacksonville has lost three in a row, with its defense letting up and looking foolish in last Sunday’s defeat in Indianapolis. The Colts could do nothing but pass, with the rushing corps in shambles, and the Jags still didn’t do anything to stop them. Ryan threw for 389 yards, including 22 first downs through the air. 

Guess which QB ranks above all others in that advanced EPA + CPOE metric the last three weeks? 

I’m not saying Daniel Jones is going to sling it like Matty Ice last week and he’ll find himself under pressure plenty, but this Giants passing game is efficient when it throws — regardless of who’s at WR. Jacksonville has also allowed the second-highest receiving yards to running backs in the league, giving up more than seven yards per reception to the position, and faces a very capable pass catcher in New York RB Saquon Barkley.

With this spread opening Giants +2.5 and moving as high as +3.5 as of this writing (with pros jumping on the Jaguars), it seems like the betting markets are waiting for the other shoe to drop for the G-Men. But measuring this matchup and the makeup of these two teams, it may not drop until Week 8. 

PICK: Giants +3.5 (-120 at 888sport)

Indianapolis Colts (+3) at Tennessee Titans pick

I come from a basketball background and there’s a belief that the only way to bust out of a shooting slump is to keep on shooting the ball.

Colts quarterback Matt Ryan gave us the football flip of this philosophy in Week 6. After five weeks of wishy-washy work under center, Matty Ice was busting out of his slump by only one means: passing the ball. A lot. 

Ryan threw 58 passes in the win over Jacksonville, completing 42 of those for almost 390 yards and three touchdowns. It certainly helped that Indianapolis’ rush attack was down to a third-string running back, but Ryan reminded us of his passing prowess and that performance could be the breakout Indy backers have been waiting for.

If the Colts are going to keep their momentum moving — hell, they’ve won three of the last four — this divisional matchup with Tennessee is critical. 

The Titans, who beat Indy 24-17 on the road in Week 4, are coming off a bye after winning three in a row (Las Vegas, Indianapolis, Washington), despite being outgained in each of those victories. Tennessee has been edged by 35, 122, and 144 yards in those contests yet has won those games by a combined 13 points.

The Titans' defense has been rotten at defending the pass (29th in DVOA) and gave up 327 yards through the air to Ryan and the Colts in Week 3. It was Indy’s three turnovers that made the difference at the end of the day though.

With the Colts getting RBs Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines back at practice this week as well as LB Shaquille Leonard, things are on the up and up for Indianapolis. 

PICK: Colts +3 (-118 at Circa Sports)

Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers (+3) pick

The media will hype up this Super Bowl LIV rematch and the revenge spot for the 49ers, who lost that game after giving away a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter.

I’m sure that collapse still sticks in the craw of Kyle Shanahan & Co. but there’s more powering this point spread pup than payback in Week 7.

The Niners are coming off a bad loss in Atlanta last Sunday, but it was a rough sked spot (two straight road games and staying on the East Coast) and came with a number of defensive starters on the sideline. Miscues from the offense also piled on the problems. 

Now, San Francisco is back in the Bay Area and the depth chart could get a boost with potential returns from standouts like Trent Williams, Nick Bosa, and Charvarius Ward. 

Before the loss to the Falcons, the Niners were gaining traction with the betting public with impressive wins over the L.A. Rams and Panthers — despite those missing pieces. However, turnover troubles last Sunday are clouding what is one of the better offenses over the past three weeks, owning the 11th-highest EPA per play in that span.

That efficient playbook goes up against a Kansas City team ripe for a letdown after the much-hyped matchup with Buffalo in Week 6 and a defense that sits in the basement of most advanced defensive metrics, including 28th in DVOA at Football Outsiders.

We all know what we’re getting from Jimmy G and Shanahan at this point, but can KC actually stop it? San Francisco averages the highest yards after the catch per reception in the land (7.6 YAC) — a spot in which the Chiefs are very soft. Kansas City has allowed the third most YAC and owns 39 missed tackles (tied for fourth most) — not what you want with beefcakes like Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk running over defenders.

On the flip of this, Mahomes’ new-look offense isn’t threatening teams over the top with home run plays like it used to and has shortened this playbook, leaning more on yardage after completions as well. The Chiefs own the most total YAC in the league, picking up 6.2 per completion. 

However, the Niners’ stop unit doesn’t give up many bonus gains after the catch. San Francisco has allowed the second-fewest YAC on the year — just 4.3 per reception — and boasts the fourth-best EPA per dropback allowed (-0.143) over the last three weeks. 

Mahomes is a major step up in QB competition for 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans, but his mix of coverages from zone splits to Cover 4 will keep the Chiefs’ passing game guessing. The possible returns of Ward and Bosa help too, especially with a pass rush that ranks No. 2 in pressure rate yet blitzes on less than 25% of dropbacks.

Getting in Mahomes’ face with just four rushers is a key to keeping KC contained. So far in 2022, Mahomes is completing only 46.6% of passes for an average of 6.8 yards per attempt along with three INTs when under pressure. 

All in all, it feels like a short-yardage grinder of a game and that’s just fine with San Fran.

PICK: 49ers +3 (-124 at Pinnacle)

Last week: 0-3 ATS -3.00 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
Season: 8-10 ATS -2.92 units (Risking 1 unit per play)

Pages related to this topic