There is a sweet science to picking NFL underdogs.
You have to make sure not to overreact to the last thing you saw and be wary of getting too high or too low in your opinions. Forking through the injuries, situational spots, and coach speak is a must to kick up any hidden advantages. And line value plays a big part, making sure you’re grabbing as many points as you can, in and around those key numbers.
But sometimes, making NFL underdog picks is as simple as selecting the best team getting the points. That’s where I find myself with the NFL Week 8 pointspread picks, siding up to some solid teams wearing the dog tags this weekend.
NFL Underdogs Week 8 picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Tennessee Titans (+2) at Indianapolis Colts pick
I’ve been high on both of these AFC South teams in recent weeks, but now the stupid schedule forces us to choose. Tennessee opened as a 1-point road favorite and early money on the Colts has swung this spread over the fence and as far as Titans +2.
Regression is the biggest argument against Tennessee, after two resume wins over Buffalo and Kansas City. But a crucial divisional game on the road is not the spot for a letdown, especially with the way this offense is humming.
Tennessee ranks third in EPA per play (+0.224) over the past three weeks, backed by a balanced attack keeping defenses on their toes. Derrick Henry continues to roll over would-be tacklers, but the passing game has very much picked up the pace. Ryan Tannehill has A.J. Brown and Julio Jones back in the mix and is coming off his best showing of 2021, with a QBR of 87.8 in the one-sided win over Kansas City.
Indianapolis has also been on the uptick (3-1 with the lone loss in OT) but its level of competition in recent weeks hasn’t been that stout: wins over Miami, Houston, and San Francisco (a combined 4-16 record) and a collapse to Baltimore.
Much like the Titans, the Colts' attack is getting it done with a balanced playbook, with Carson Wentz getting healthy and RB Jonathan Taylor trucking along. Indy is right there with Tennessee in EPA per play over the last three outings, and the defenses are pretty much shoulder to shoulder – stat-wise – in that span.
This current Colts team is a completely different animal than the squad that lost to the Titans 25-16 back in Week 3, but the Titans are much improved too. With all things so even – just look at that spread – I’m going to side with the better QB, and for me, that’s still Tannehill.
PICK: Tennessee +2 (-110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (+6)
The Saints are as big as +6 at home for this NFC South rivalry, which, if the spread closes there, would be the largest underdog NOLA has ever been at home (since 1985, when we started keeping track).
History aside, this is way too many points to give a very sound Saints team at home – and in just their second true home game of 2021. New Orleans ranks among the league’s defensive elite and poses a much stiffer test than the Bucs’ recent three foes, who have a combined win/loss record of 6-15 SU and rank 21st, 24th, and 28th in defensive DVOA.
It could be tough sledding for the Saints on offense, leaning heavily on Alvin Kamara to create gains against the top run-stop unit in the land. But New Orleans will do all it can to keep Tom Brady sporting that backward hat on the sideline, sticking this game in the sand with the slowest offense in the NFL, averaging 30.63 seconds per play, and milking the TOP tit for every minute it can. That won’t leave much time for Tampa to cover this sizable spread on the road.
PICK: New Orleans +6 (-110)
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) pick
Editor's note: this pick was made before news came out about Dallas QB Dak Prescott's ankle injury, which swung the line to Minnesota -2.5.
A bye week can go bad, and that’s where we find the Cowboys. Sure, the week off allowed Dak Prescott to rest up from a calf injury that seems more serious than the team is letting on, but Dallas had momentum building before that break – most notably on defense.
The Cowboys are a dangerous stop unit, with 14 takeaways on the year. Behind those game-changing plays, however, is a group that ranks 29th in yards allowed per snap, 24th in points per play, and 23rd in red zone defense. If that hot ball-hawking unit cooled at all during the bye, Dallas will struggle to contain the Vikings.
Minnesota is an example of a bye week doing good. The Vikes are the most inconsistent team in the NFL and their 3-3 record could look very different – positive or negative – on the swing of just a few key plays. However, the hiatus has allowed this team to refocus and heal up on both sides of the ball.
The Vikings’ offense has the weapons to keep pace with the Cowboys and the balance to keep Dallas’s defense guessing, with RB Dalvin Cook finally over an ankle injury that has slowed his production in past games. His efforts on the ground complement that dynamic receiving duo of Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, who faces a Dallas secondary ranked dead last in defending No. 1 WRs. One of those guys is going to have a big game.
Defensively, the Vikings have underperformed, considering just how high the expectations were for this unit entering 2021. Yet, they rank tied for first in sacks (21), lead the league in QB hurries (46), and are tops in pressure rate, making QBs squirm on 32 percent of dropbacks.
Mike Zimmer’s defenses also have a reputation for bringing sky-high offenses back to earth. According to the league’s research team, Zimmer is 6-2 SU all-time versus offenses ranked No. 1 in the land and has checked all eight of those elite attacks to below their season average in points scored.
I was hoping this spread would creep to a field goal with the ravenous Dallas fanbase fueling that fire, and it still might by Sunday night. But with the line teetering anywhere between +1 and +2.5, we’ll grab all the points we can with the purple helmets.
PICK: Minnesota +2.5 (-118)
Last week: 2-1 ATS +0.73 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
Season: 14-7 ATS +5.43 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
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