NFL Week 8 Picks and Predictions: Barking Dogs in the North

Last week was a bad week for the NFL betting public. That often means a good week for NFL underdogs.

According to our Covers Consensus data, teams drawing 60% or more of picks in their respective matchups went 0-7 against the spread.

Most of those popular picks were set as point-spread favorites by the NFL odds, which means pups popped off in Week 7. The official tally was an 8-5 ATS finish for underdogs.

Before Week 7, the “public” was beating up the bookies as teams drawing 60% or more of picks were covering at a 60% clip. And with public players gravitating toward stronger sides — most often favorites — it left underdogs to go just 40-47-4 ATS in the first six weeks of the season (46%).

I’ve been doing this sports betting thing for a while now, and if I’ve learned anything when it comes to season-long trends, it’s that things even out by year's end.

Was last week’s public flogging the first sign of sportsbooks fighting their way back after a sluggish start to 2023? Possibly.

I will say, the previous three NFL seasons saw those “60%-plus public picks” finish a combined 44% against the spread. Underdogs have barked at a 54% ATS success rate from 2020 to 2022.

As for my NFL picks and predictions for this column, I’m ahead of the curve with a 12-9 ATS record as I break down NFL Week 8 odds. Here’s to the pending dog days. Down with the public.

Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 12-9 ATS

NFL Week 8 picks and predictions

• Panthers +3
• Bengals +5.5
• Packers +1.5

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers +3 pick

When you’re 0-6 on the season, any change is a step in the right direction.

Carolina Panthers head coach Frank Reich is handing the keys to the offense over to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, in hopes of kickstarting a unit that sits near the bottom in most major statistical measurements.

Brown brings a more dynamic scheme, with plenty of pre-snap motion and misdirection. The Sean McVay disciple is fighting for balance in the playbook after Carolina was left fighting to keep its head above water against some high-octane opponents.

The Panthers brought a wad of Play-Doh to a knife fight in matchups with Seattle, Detroit, and Miami. The defense was down bodies in the depth chart and couldn’t slow those fiery foes, forcing rookie QB Bryce Young to play from behind and go very one-dimensional – throwing on more than 64% of snaps and running a lot of no-huddle.

That scenario won’t be in play against the Houston Texans. Houston has been better than expected on offense but isn’t blowing the doors off opponents. And what’s more, the Texans have a crappy defense that doesn’t bring pressure and crumbles on key downs.

Houston’s 3-3 start is being overvalued, especially with two of those wins over flaky teams like the Steelers and Saints. We’ve seen the Texans get outgained severely in three of their last four, yet they’re 3-1 SU in that stretch.

The offseason odds for this non-conference clash had Carolina laying 3-point at home. Now that spread is upside down and the Panthers have a new approach and a healthier roster coming off a bye last week.

PICK: Carolina Panthers +3 (-110 at bet365)

Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) at San Francisco 49ers pick

In many ways, the Cincinnati Bengals’ 2023 season starts now.

Cincinnati has been sideways since QB Joe Burrow came up lame with a calf injury back in training camp and barely survived the first six weeks of action with a 3-3 record, as Burrow basically played on one leg for the first four games.

Cincy showed flashes of its past pinnacle in the last two outings before a much-needed Week 7 bye, beating Arizona soundly in Week 5 and then holding off Seattle in Week 6.

The key takeaway coming out of those wins, Burrow is back. He looks much stronger in the pocket and can move around with ease, which is something that was limiting this offense in the opening four games. Mobility is needed against this San Francisco 49ers defense in Week 8.

San Francisco is sputtering with back-to-back losses, including a bad showing at Minnesota on Monday which leaves the 49ers on a short week to prep for the well-rested Bengals.

This battle with Cincy comes at the worst time for the Niners. Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks is under fire for a passive pass rush, which has taken a lot of the chaos out of this San Fran stop unit.

Burrow is by far the best QB San Francisco has faced this season and his talented receiving corps is bound for a breakout, with Ja’Marr Chase revving up and Tee Higgins healthy. And it’s not just the Cincinnati offense making a stand.

Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has his group back on track. With the offense stalling behind an injured Burrow, the Bengals defense logged an average of almost 32 minutes of field time in the first four games, which saw them buckle for the 25th-ranked EPA.

However, with Burrow & Co. moving the chain in the wins over Arizona and Seattle, the stop unit has been able to get a break and the proof is in the pudding. Cincinnati sits No. 3 in EPA allowed since Week 5.

This was one of the circle games when the 2023 NFL season was released in the spring, and the early odds had Cincinnati as a 1-point road underdog in Santa Clara for a possible Super Bowl preview. I still believe it could be, even with the spread now Bengals +5.5.

PICK: Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 (-110 at bet365)

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (+1.5) pick

Let’s push pause on everything the Green Bay Packers haven’t done so far this season and just focus on the situational spot ahead for the Minnesota Vikings in Week 8.

Minnesota is ripe for a letdown after a big win over San Francisco on Monday night, which also has the Vikes hitting the road on a short week to visit a divisional rival. Minnesota is just 2-4 SU and ATS in its last six NFC North road trips.

On top of that, this is an outdoor game for indoor Minny with the weather in Wisconsin throwing everything it can at the visitors this Sunday. Snow showers turn to rain as this 1 p.m. ET start kicks off, which cools game-time temperatures to the mid-30s.

Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins: loves the rugged outdoor L.L. Bean look. Hates playing outdoors.

His passer rating drops from 105.8 in domes to 92.8 in outdoor venues, with his completion percentages sliding from better than 69% to 65% outdoors. He’s thrown an INT in just 56% of indoor games while he’s been picked off at least once in 82% of open-air outings.

That’s what’s in store for the Vikings – before they even take the field at Lambeau on Sunday. Can the Cheeseheads take advantage of what will be their first home game in month?

Green Bay’s biggest issue is sustaining drives. The Packers are 25th in first downs per game, have converted on just 35% of third-down spots the past three outings, and rank 18th in offensive success rate.

The glimmer of hope is that Minnesota’s defense isn’t great at showing foes the sideline. The Vikings ranked 20th in first downs allowed, 25th in third-down defense, and sit 24th in opponent success rate.

The Cheeseheads need to keep the chains moving and play a little possession football considering the injuries on the defensive side, with several starters listed as questionable.

The combo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon is finally healthy and put up 96 combined rushing yards on 23 carries against Denver. The Packers rank ninth in success rate per handoff (40.7%) which means those carries are picking up first downs.

As for QB Jordan Love, he faces an aggressive Vikings defense that is bringing blitz at the highest rate in the NFL. Luckily, his offensive line is ranked No. 2 in pass block win rate and Love has felt pressure on less than 20% of dropbacks while taking only 10 sacks on the season.

For all his shortcomings, Love has done well against blitzing defenses. He ranks 11th among all quarterbacks at PFF versus the blitz, picking up 6.8 yards per attempt when facing extra pass rushers with three TDs and zero interceptions.

Lambeau Field was an impenetrable fortress for the Vikings when Aaron Rodgers was under center for the Packers, with Minnesota going just 4-10-2 SU and 5-11 ATS in Wisconsin since 2008. We’ll see if that still holds up.

PICK: Green Bay Packers +1.5 (-120 at FanDuel)

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