Two last-place NFL teams struggling through the debut seasons of their rookie quarterbacks will face off on Sunday as the Tennessee Titans host the New England Patriots.
Despite both offenses having trouble scoring consistently, I’ll show why I like the Over this week in my Patriots vs. Titans predictions.
Keep reading to get a full analysis of this early afternoon game in my free NFL picks for Sunday, November 3.
Patriots vs Titans prediction
My best bet
Over 38 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Not only have fans of the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans not had much to get excited about this year, but it hasn’t been much fun watching these two teams play. The Titans are averaging just 17.1 points per game this season, while New England has been even worse, putting up just 15.5 ppg.
But those numbers don’t tell the whole story. These teams are also awful defensively, for the most part, which gives me reason to think that these offenses will find at least limited success this Sunday.
Both teams are trying to help rookie quarterbacks get into the swing of NFL play, something that’s difficult when they’re constantly under pressure.
It’s worth noting Titans QB Will Levis and Patriots signal-caller Drake Maye are uncertain for Sunday’s game: Levis is dealing with a shoulder injury, while Maye remains in the concussion protocol. But neither has produced much, and I don’t expect any loss in production – and perhaps even a slight boost – if their respective journeyman backups play instead.
Regardless of who takes the snaps, both reserve QBs should enjoy relatively comfortable games. The Patriots generate just 1.9 sacks per game, while the Titans do just a bit better at 2.0 sacks per game.
While the Titans have a statistically solid defense in almost every metric except for scoring, quarterbacks are relatively efficient against them, allowing opponents to put up a 93.8 passer rating. Meanwhile, New England gives up 7.3 yards per passing attempt, one of the worst numbers in the league.
Tennessee should also be able to run the ball against a mediocre Patriots running game, something that might give the Titans an edge in this contest. But overall, both teams will find opportunities to move the ball, as these aren’t shutdown defensive units.
Just in terms of scores, these teams have been playing above Sunday’s low total in general lately. The Titans have played to totals of 41 points or more in seven of their last eight games; the Patriots have hit a total of 43 or more in five of their last seven. I’m not saying this will be a shootout, but 38 points isn’t nearly enough to scare me away from the Over.
Over 38
Titans -3.5
Tony Pollard anytime touchdown
I love the Over in this matchup, but I also think the Titans are the clear pick on the spread as well. That’s why I’m combining the two bets for my same-game parlay on Sunday.
The Titans are playing at home and have the defensive tools to stop New England, whereas I think Tennessee has at least a couple of weapons that will give the Patriots some trouble.
The most obvious of these is running back Tony Pollard, who has been the best option for a Titans team that hasn’t had much success moving the ball through the air.
Pollard has three touchdowns on the year and is getting the lion’s share of the carries, putting him in a good position to score again Sunday. Whether it’s on a long run or just a goal-line situation, I expect Pollard to find the end zone.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Patriots vs Titans odds
Patriots vs Titans live odds
Patriots vs Titans opening odds
- Spread: New England +3 (-115) | Tennessee -3 (-105)
- Moneyline: New England +130 | Tennessee -155
- Over/Under: Over 38.5 (-115) | Under 38.5 (-105)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Patriots vs Titans spread and Over/Under analysis
- New England is just 2-5-1 against the spread this season, though Tennessee has been even worse for bettors, going 1-6 ATS on the year.
- The Patriots have covered in six of their last eight meetings with the Titans.
- The Over is 5-3 in New England’s games this year, and has a 4-2-1 edge when the Titans have played.
- The Patriots are playing to an average total of 40.1 ppg, with the Titans also coming in with relatively low totals, averaging 45.1 ppg.
Patriots vs Titans betting trend to know
The Over is 4-1 across both teams' last five games. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Titans.
Patriots vs Titans game info
| Location: | Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-3, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Patriots vs Titans latest injuries
Patriots vs Titans weather
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