The Los Angeles Chargers head to the Midwest to face the Cleveland Browns on Sunday afternoon.
The Bolts have been a physical, run-heavy team under Jim Harbaugh, but my Chargers vs Browns predictions fade their top running back, J.K. Dobbins.
Read on to find out why in my NFL picks for this Week 9 clash on November 3.
Chargers vs Browns prediction & picks
Spread
The Cleveland Browns are coming off their best performance of the year, but the bump from Jameis Winston at QB might be a tad overpriced given how he's performed long-term. Cleveland's offense could also be missing tight end David Njoku and will be facing a Los Angeles Chargers defense third in the league in dropback EPA and second in rush EPA.
Cleveland's defense will also likely be missing a pair of key starters in leading tackler Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and top corner Denzel Ward. That will make it tough for them to stop a Chargers offense that has been moving the ball better in recent weeks.
This could also be a bit of a let-down spot for the Browns after an emotional victory against a rival last week, so back the Chargers at -1.5.
Moneyline
The Chargers are -125 on the moneyline, but given the short spread, I'd rather lay the 1.5 points at -110 instead.
Over/Under
The Chargers have gone 6-1 to the Under this year, but with both offenses trending upwards, the Over 42.5 looks like the sharp play.
Cleveland's offense was beyond pathetic with Deshaun Watson at the helm, but Winston threw for 334 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions against Baltimore last week. The Browns were also dealing with a slew of injuries on the offensive line at the start of the year but have gotten some key pieces back in recent weeks.
Likewise, the Bolts are getting healthier at receiver, and OC Greg Roman has opened up the offense with Justin Herbert throwing for 275+ yards in back-to-back games.
Through the first four weeks of the season, the Chargers were 28th in the league in passing play percentage (47%), but that number has ticked up to 56.2% over the last three games despite playing with positive or neutral game scripts.
My Chargers vs Browns best bet
J.K. Dobbins Under 72.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins is 11th in the league with 535 rushing yards. That said, his rushing yards O/U is set at 72.5 this week, which is inflated due to Dobbins rushing for more than 130 yards in back-to-back games at the start of the year.
The RB has been held below 60 rushing yards in four of his last five contests, and he's averaging just 3.16 yards per rush attempt over that span.
The Browns lead the league in run-stop win rate while limiting opposing running backs to 4.3 yards per attempt. With the Chargers also passing the ball more in recent weeks, it makes sense to fade Dobbins on his rushing yards total.
Chargers vs Browns same-game parlay
J.K. Dobbins Under 72.5 rushing yards
Chargers moneyline
Over 37.5
The Chargers were able to move the ball in a 26-8 victory against the Saints last week despite a poor performance from Dobbins (17 carries for 55 yards). I expect a similar showing this week, although Cleveland's offense should have some success thanks to Winston's ability to attack downfield.
I already mentioned why I liked the Chargers at -1.5 and the Over 42.5. Being able to shift the total down to that overlooked key number of 37.5 while taking the Bolts ML and still getting +425 in this SGP is gravy.
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Chargers vs Browns odds
Chargers vs Browns live odds
Chargers vs Browns opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles -2 | Cleveland +2
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -125 | Cleveland +105
- Over/Under: Over 41.5 | Under 41.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Chargers vs Browns betting trend to know
The Chargers have covered the second-half spread in four of their last five games (+2.90 Units / 54% ROI), while the Browns have only covered the 2H spread in two of their last nine (-5.45 Units / -56% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Browns.
Chargers vs Browns game info
| Location: | Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-3, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Chargers vs Browns latest injuries
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