NFL First Touchdown Props Week 9: Hurts So Good!

First TD prop bet #1: Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara: +375 at bet365

The New Orleans Saints face the Carolina Panthers and have gone from one-point to seven-point favorites with the news that quarterback Derek Carr is fit to play. Carr’s return will be a huge boost for the team, and he’s a massive improvement on what they’ve had under center during his injury. We should see the Saints improve, and Alvin Kamara is just as likely to see that as the wideouts.

Through eight games, we’ve seen the Panthers give up a staggering 15 touchdowns to running backs. Kamara has seven scores on the season but has had a lull with just one in the past month. This is the perfect get-right game against a terrible run defense, and he’ll score early.

First TD prop bet #2: Jalen Hurts

Best odds: +650 at bet365

Taking Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts to open the scoring at home to the Jaguars is very much a value play. The Jags are far worse against the pass than on the ground, but that doesn’t really matter here. The reason for Hurts’ long odds is simply Saquon Barkley, with the former New York Giants RB at far shorter odds to open the scoring.

Barkley is the rightful favorite, but we must take Hurts at +650; the value is too big. This is a guy who has scored seven times this season and, most crucially, has run into the endzone five times in the past two weeks. He’s in red-hot form, and the threat of Barkley and A.J. Brown has defenses terrified, opening space for Hurts when in the red zone.

First TD prop bet #3: Courtland Sutton

Best odds: +1,900 at DraftKings

The Baltimore Ravens are rightful favorites against the Denver Broncos, but the best-priced odds of just +310 for Derrick Henry to open the scoring feel far too short. Zay Flowers is next up at +900, but the high price of Courtland Sutton at +1900 really leaps out. He’s the second shortest-priced Bronco behind Javonte Williams at +1200, but far more likely.

The Ravens are great at stopping the run, the best in the NFL, while they have been woeful against the pass, leading the league in terms of yardage allowed through the air each game. With Bo Nix improving every week and fresh from his career's highest passing yard total, he could be set to air it out.

That makes Sutton pure money at +1,900. He leads the Broncos in red zone targets by a staggering amount with 11, with the rest of the WR corps only accounting for 10 combined. He’s the man, he can be a serious deep threat and could open the scoring on Sunday.