It’s only fitting the puck luck would turn in the Ottawa Senators' favor against the visiting Vegas Golden Knights, isn’t it?
Ottawa's 8-9-1 record isn’t fully indicative of how good this team is, and my Senators vs. Golden Knights predictions call for the home side to have better luck against Vegas at the Canadian Tire Centre on November 21.
Senators vs Golden Knights prediction
My Senators pick
Senators in regulation (+107 at Pinnacle)
My Senators analysis
The Ottawa Senators fell victim to the magic of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on Tuesday to drop their third straight, so this is an incredibly important game — and the Vegas Golden Knights are a beatable opponent.
Vegas' 3-4-2 highway record and playing its second road game in consecutive nights are definitely priced into these odds, but there is a laundry list of shortcomings that aren’t.
To start, the Golden Knights rank 26th with a 47.61 Corsi For percentage and 24th with a 47.15 expected goals percentage at 5-on-5. Their middling 51.55 goal percentage has also been bolstered by a likely unsustainable 9.86 team shooting percentage, too.
Those numbers drop to 46.9 CF%, 43.6 xGF%, and 39.0 GF% at 5-on-5 on the highway, which further reinforces why they’ve struggled away from Sin City.
Additionally, Vegas has only scored eight goals at 5-on-5 through six games since Mark Stone (lower body) hit injured reserve, and it has only won twice.
The Sens are reeling along a 2-4-1 stretch with just 10 goals at 5-on-5 themselves, but they’ve also paced the NHL with a 58.4 CF% and 58.6 xGF% during the slump while sporting an NHL-low 92.9 PDO for the season.
Simply put, it’s incredibly difficult to do so well and not have it show up on the scoreboard, and the puck luck flips to the Sens side tonight.
Senators vs Golden Knights Odds analysis
There has been a huge move to the Ottawa side of this moneyline at Pinnacle. The case against Vegas was clearly laid out, and the injury-depleted Toronto Maple Leafs just showed off the blueprint for slowing down the Golden Knights on Wednesday.
This total hasn’t seen meaningful line movement, and while I definitely lean to the Under because of the highlighted 5-on-5 scoring woes of both teams, both clubs also have positive regression ahead of their respective shooting percentages.
Additionally, both head coaches are secretly praying for saves, and Ottawa has trended to the Over at home.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Senators vs Golden Knights odds
Senators vs Golden Knights live odds
Senators vs Golden Knights opening odds
- Puck line: Ottawa +1.5 (-231) | Vegas -1.5 (+195)
- Moneyline: Ottawa +112 | Vegas -126
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (+100) | Under 6.5 (-115)
Odds courtesy of Pinnacle
Senators vs Golden Knights trend
The Ottawa Senators have hit the Over in 24 of their last 39 games at home (+8.10 Units / 18% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Golden Knights.
How to watch Senators vs Golden Knights
| Location: | Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON |
| Date: | Thursday, 11-21-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | RDS |
Senators vs Golden Knights latest injuries
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