The Minnesota Vikings try to snap a two-game skid as they welcome the Indianapolis Colts to U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday Night Football in Week 9. Meanwhile, the Colts are trending upwards and have benched sophomore QB Anthony Richardson for veteran Joe Flacco.
My NFL picks and Colts vs. Vikings predictions are betting on Flacco to throw a pick against this blitz-happy Minnesota defense. I'm also backing Colts running back Jonathan Taylor and Vikings wideout Justin Jefferson with my best SNF props for Colts vs. Vikings on November 3.
Colts vs Vikings SNF props
Taylor Over 71.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Jefferson longest reception Over 26.5 yards (-115 at bet365)- Flacco Over 0.5 interceptions (-135 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Colts vs Vikings SNF props
Prop bet #1: Jonathan Taylor Over 71.5 rushing yards
On the surface, this looks like a matchup where you would want to fade Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor. After all, the Minnesota Vikings lead the league in defensive rush EPA and are holding foes to just 3.9 yards per carry.
That said, with top linebacker Blake Cashman sidelined by a toe injury, the Vikings have been getting gashed by running backs over the last two weeks. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for 24 carries for 147 yards against Minnesota in Week 7 while Kyren Williams had 23 carries for 97 yards last week.
In addition, Minnesota has allowed 5.3 yards per carry against inside zone runs, the third-worst number in the NFL. The Colts run inside zone on 41% of their rush attempts which is the second-highest rate in the league.
Taylor has rushed for more than 85 yards in four-straight games despite facing Top-10 EPA defenses in all of those contests. He missed three weeks with an ankle injury but returned to the lineup last Sunday and carried the ball 20 times for 105 yards versus the Texans.
Prop bet #2: Justin Jefferson Longest reception Over 26.5 yards
Justin Jefferson is third in the league with 646 receiving yards and he's fresh off a 115-yard performance versus the Rams. The All-Pro wideout is a big-play threat and has pulled in a reception of 27+ yards in six of seven games this year.
Indianapolis has struggled to defend the pass, ranking 23rd in the league in dropback EPA and 24th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.1). The Colts don't generate much pressure which will give Vikings QB Sam Darnold plenty of time to throw downfield. The Colts also play zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the league which will allow Minnesota to match Jefferson up against undersized corner Samuel Womack III out wide.
With the exception of two games where they faced Tyler Huntley and Will Levis, the Colts have given up big pass plays all year. They've allowed opposing wideouts to have a longest reception of 38+ yards in all six of their other contests with Chicago and Jacksonville eclipsing that number twice.
Prop bet #3: Joe Flacco Over 0.5 interceptions
Joe Flacco came off the couch to throw for a ton of yards last year with Cleveland but he also threw a pick in all six of his starts for a total of 10 interceptions. He's had mixed results this year, shredding Jacksonville's pathetic pass defense for 359 yards in Week 5, but throwing for fewer than 190 yards in his other two games.
The 39-year-old QB is immobile and has struggled when blitzed. Last year he was 15th in the league among 42 qualifying quarterbacks in offensive grade when not blitzed (77.0) but ranked just 38th against the blitz with a grade of 48.7. In a smaller sample size this year, Flacco has been only slightly better when blitzed posting a grade of 54.6.
That's bad news against a defense that blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL (41.4%) and also leads the league in pressure rate (30.2%). Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores will figure out a way to bring the heat on the left side where Indy is missing blindside protector Bernhard Raimann.
With the Vikings fifth in the league in defensive dropback EPA and leading the league in interceptions per game (1.7), bet on Flacco to throw a pick on Sunday.
New Users
Choose your welcome bonus at bet365
Get in on the SNF action at bet365, which is offering new users a choice of two incredible offers:
- Up to $1,000 in bonus bets back (if your first bet doesn't win)
- Bet $5, get $200 in bonus bets instantly
Sign up now to pick your offer at bet365, or learn more with our comprehensive bet365 review.
Eligible U.S. locations only.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
