The Atlanta Falcons host the Dallas Cowboys in an important NFC crossroads game at the midway mark of the schedule.
This Week 9 meeting could very well set the tone for both teams going forward, as Dallas is desperate for a correction after back-to-back losses and Atlanta is out to prove its position in the conference pecking order.
With the Cowboys on the brink of collapse, they’ll turn to their captain and quarterback Dak Prescott to pull them out of this tailspin.
My Cowboys vs. Falcons predictions break down the spread, moneyline, Over/Under, and player props for this matchup inside Mercedes Benz Stadium, as the Dallas pivot headlines my NFL picks for Sunday, November 3.
Cowboys vs Falcons prediction & picks
Spread
This spread opened with the Atlanta Falcons as a 2.5-point home favorite, and after some brief moves down to -2, the market pushed the Falcons as high as field goal favorites. According to Covers Consensus, 62% of spread picks are backing Atlanta.
Moneyline
Given the original spread opened below a field goal and dipped as low as -2, the moneyline for the Falcons was listed as short as -130 earlier in the week. However, with play coming in on the short home chalk and the spread climbing to -3, the outright price on Atlanta is now -154, with the Dallas Cowboys coming back as a +130 moneyline underdog.
Over/Under
This total hit the board as low as 48.5 O/U, and money on the Over has bumped this number to as high as 52 points before buyback settled the O/U at 51.5 points. This is an indoor game between two capable offenses facing two defenses ranked Bottom 10 in the league.
My Cowboys vs Falcons best bet
Dak Prescott Over 37.5 Passing Attempts (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
With a tall total above 50 points, bookmakers are bracing for a high-scoring shootout in Atlanta. And if you’ve seen the Cowboys offense operate, that means plenty of passing from quarterback Dak Prescott.
Prescott is pretty much all Dallas has at this point. The rushing game is bogged down by the aging legs of guys like Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook, while RB1 Rico Dowdle is more effective as a pass catcher than a rusher.
Playing into a pass-heavy game script is the fact this spread has climbed to Atlanta -3, which means the Cowboys will be trying to claw their way back on the scoreboard — leading to a faster and pass-heavy playbook. That’s saying something considering Dallas is already the second most pass-happy offense in the land (65.92% plays plays) — even though head coach Mike McCarthy is also barking about establishing the run.
Prescott is averaging 37.4 pass attempts in the first half of 2024, which is just shy of where this passing prop sits. Meanwhile, the Falcons aren’t a great passing defense, rated 22nd in opponent success rate per dropback. They've watched rival QBs attempt an average of 39 pass attempts over the past three games, including 50 passes from Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield last weekend.
Atlanta also plays an up-tempo pace on offense, ranked seventh in plays per game over the previous three outings and utilizing faster no-huddle schemes at the sixth highest rate. That could force the Cowboys to go just as quickly when they get the football, as the game dissolves into a shootout.
Dak has tossed 38 or more passes in four of his first seven games and player projections for Week 9 range from a low of 33 to 43 passing attempts, with my number coming in just short of 40 passes from Prescott.
Cowboys vs Falcons same-game parlay
Dak Prescott Over 37.5 passing attempts
Drake London Over 67.5 receiving yards
Over 51.5
The tall total and lack of a run game has Prescott passing a lot against a soft Falcons defense.
Drake London will connect with Kirk Cousins plenty of times, with projections as high as 81 yards receiving.
Two pass-happy attacks playing at a fast pace indoors. Sounds like an Over to me.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Cowboys vs Falcons odds
Cowboys vs Falcons live odds
Cowboys vs Falcons opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +2.5 | Atlanta -2.5
- Moneyline: Dallas +110 | Atlanta -130
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 | Under 48.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Cowboys vs Falcons betting trend to know
Dallas has been an underdog in nine games over the past two seasons, going 6-3 O/U in those outings. Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Falcons.
Cowboys vs Falcons game info
| Location: | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-3, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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