NFL Conference Championship Picks and Predictions

Short underdogs have been NFL betting gold on Championship Sunday the past 10 postseasons. 

While underdogs overall are a ho-hum 9-10-1 against the spread in the AFC and NFC Championship games since 2011, underdogs of +3 or shorter are 5-1 SU and ATS. 

As it stands Thursday afternoon, both the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are catching a field goal on the road in their respective championship games.

But which short pup packs the most punch for our NFL Underdogs picks and predictions? Or, better yet, which short favorite will fall on its face this Sunday?

Looking at the Green Bay Packers, who are 3-point home chalk versus the Bucs in the NFC Championship, a quick sniff test really doesn’t reveal anything moldy with the Cheeseheads. They’ve won seven straight outings and covered in five of those games, mashing opponents by an average margin of more than two touchdowns a contest. 

Sure, they’ve had a couple cupcakes along the way, and Tampa trounced them in Week 6, but I’m about as keen to fade Aaron Rodgers as I am to tell my wife her new jeans make her ass look big. Bad moves all around.

That leads us to the Kansas City Chiefs, and therefore to…

Buffalo Bills (+3) vs Kansas City Chiefs pick

Having success with point spread underdogs is not always about betting on the best team getting the points, but spotting the worst one giving them. And when you’re this far into the tournament, “worst” is a very thin statement. 

I’ve looked long and hard at the four championship qualifiers this past week, and if we ignore Kansas City’s run to the Super Bowl last season and its red-hot start to 2020 – which we should since that was almost three months ago – we see a Chiefs team barely keeping its head above water.

Kansas City has covered only once in its last nine games despite going 8-1 SU in that stretch (with the lone loss a Week 17 throw-away). The Chiefs have played with fire wearing kerosene gloves in each of those eight victories, even going as far as setting an NFL record for one-score wins. That’s not a good thing when you’re routinely giving the points.

Even in the Divisional Round, when many expected K.C. to finally wake up and find that higher gear, the Chiefs were the same disappointing team we’ve seen since November. They did just enough to get the win over the Cleveland Browns but not enough to cover the spread, which had moved from -10 to -7.5 in the hours before kickoff.

And while we’re on the subject of things that “ain’t quite what they used to be”, Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes could be a different man for Sunday’s AFC Championship.

The former Super Bowl MVP got a scare when he left last Sunday’s game with a concussion and while It sounds like Mahomes is good to go, his game will be altered. He could be quick to get rid of the ball when he hears footsteps coming and Andy Reid will be gun-shy when it comes to Mahomes calling his own number, taking away those clutch keepers and ballsy head-first dives Mahomes is notorious for – and K.C’s success is dependent on.

Now, we’ve gone like 500 words without even talking about the Bills, which might be a good thing. 

Buffalo also hasn’t looked great in recent efforts, passing by Indianapolis and Baltimore with postseason wins that were less convincing than Brad Pitt’s accent in any movie (Devil’s Own, Snatch, Troy, Inglourious Basterds… take your pick).  

But much like Mr. Pitt, we’re able to see through those mistakes and to the stellar performer – especially a 12-6 ATS performer and what’s better, a 4-1 mark against the spread as an underdog. 

The Bills, whose three losses came in weird COVID-impacted games against the Titans and Chiefs or on a 43-yard “Hail Murray”, have sorted out their defensive shortcomings and have the offense to go tit-for-tat with the Chiefs – even if the former high-octane Chiefs suddenly show up.

And you’ve got to love a quarterback in Josh Allen that boasts a 12-1-3 career ATS record as an underdog of a touchdown or less (H/T 13WHAM sports anchor Dan Fetes for that gem). 

PREDICTION: Buffalo +3 (-105)

Last week: 1-1 ATS
Playoffs: 3-1 ATS
Season: 29-26 ATS

Where Can I Bet on the NFL?

You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbooks, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.

Pages related to this topic