The NFL morphed into a pass-first league over the past decade, with teams throwing more than ever. The 2020 NFL betting season was no exception, with teams averaging 35.2 pass attempts per game - the fourth-busiest season for quarterbacks in NFL history.
But, in the midst of this aerial display, teams able to run the football with consistency reign supreme. If we look at the Top 10 teams in terms of rushing play percentage, seven of them qualified for the playoffs. Five of those teams are playing this weekend. And two of those are my picks and predictions for the Divisional Round edition of NFL Underdogs.
Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) vs Buffalo Bills pick
Regardless of the sport, momentum is mutha when it comes to the postseason. A team peaking at the right time can toss all those season-long stats and projections out the window, and there’s no NFL team hotter than the Baltimore Ravens right now.
Baltimore has strung together six straight victories, going back to Week 13 and including a 20-13 win at Tennessee in the Wild Card Round. And while you can discount that run a bit due to the level of competition, the Ravens not only picked up the W’s but shattered the oddsmakers’ expectations. They’re a perfect 6-0 against the spread in that span, boasting an average margin of victory of over 17 points versus an average spread of -8.5.
Saturday’s Divisional Round dance with the Buffalo Bills is just the second time all season that Baltimore is catching the points (won 24-10 as 1-point dog at Indianapolis in Week 9), facing a Bills team that by all accounts didn’t “win” its AFC Wild Card game versus the Colts. Indianapolis just so happened to lose.
Buffalo’s defense had zero answers for the Colts attack last Saturday. Regardless of pace, position or situation, Indianapolis moved the chains with ease, chewing up 34 minutes of possession, and out-yarded the home side by 75 yards on offense, totaling 163 gains on the ground. Just imagine the damage if Philip Rivers didn’t run like a man dying in quicksand.
As good as the Ravens defense is playing at this moment (and that’s pretty damn good), they can’t take down Josh Allen and Buffalo all on their own. Allen has flourished as a pressure passer since the last time these teams clashed. Part of Baltimore’s strategy has to be parking the Mafia's deep-strike offense on the sideline with a methodical run game – one that’s clocked an average TOP of 36:26 over the past three games (NFL high) and boasts the second-slowest pace in the league (a play every 29.57 seconds).
The Bills know what’s coming - as did the Ravens’ past six opponents - but Buffalo is ill-equipped to stop it. It finished 17th in rushing defense DVOA at Football Outsiders, has allowed 5.1 yards per carry over the last three games, and got torched by dual-threat QBs to the tune of seven rushing TDs and 5.2 yards per scramble.
PREDICTION: Baltimore +2.5 (EVEN)
Cleveland Browns (+10) vs Kansas City Chiefs pick
Which version of the Kansas City Chiefs are we getting in the Divisional Round?
The Chiefs closed out the calendar with the same attention span my wife has while texting in the middle of our conversations, and K.C. cared about covering the spread as much as she cares to hear my rant on dollar store sriracha vs. the bottle with the rooster on it (if I wanted to eat pepper spray, I’d pick a fight with a mall cop).
Kansas City is a torturous 1-7 ATS since November 8 – far from the relentless machine that went 6-2 ATS to open the 2020 season and well off the pace of the squad that won the Super Bowl last February with a 3-0 ATS mark in the playoffs. Even with that championship pedigree, it makes laying the 10 points with the Chiefs a tough pill to swallow.
Cleveland comes into the Divisional Round riding high after thumping the rival Steelers last Sunday night. The Browns busted Pittsburgh open like a pinata on both sides of the ball, and even though the Browns defense leaked 37 points and massive yardage, the fundamentals of this team could be kryptonite to Kansas City.
The run-catch combo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt is going to be huge versus a K.C. stop unit that ranked second-last in run defense DVOA and allowed a league-high 846 yards receiving to running backs. The Chiefs will attempt to nullify those rushers and make Baker Mayfield beat them, bringing plenty of pass pressure to force him into mistakes (K.C. ranks fourth in blitz frequency). That may not be the best approach, however.
Mayfield, who owns a passer rating of 113.6 with 15 TDs and only three INTs when facing the blitz, thrived with a quicker release versus Pittsburgh, getting rid of the football at a rate of 2.34 seconds per pass. That quick-hitting offense means lots of looks over the top to WR Jarvis Landy and TE Austin Hooper, making this playbook a tough nut to crack for K.C. which has been beaten up in the middle of the field and allows significant yards after the catch to rival receivers.
Do I think the Browns have another upset in them? I dunno and I don't care. Just keep it within the 10 Cleveland.
PREDICTION: Cleveland +10 (-110)
Last week: 2-0 ATS
Season: 28-25 ATS
NFL Divisional Round Betting Card
- Baltmore +2.5 (EVEN)
- Cleveland +10 (-110)
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