Week 3 of the NFL season kicked off with a TNF matchup between the Patriots and Jets.
I expected it to be a boring game where both teams trusted things that were safe and reliable. Instead, we had two pass-happy game plans that, well, worked out for the Jets.
That game also serves as an inspiration for my NFL player prop picks this week, as I was planning on taking the trustworthy names and players... but have since made an audible and am going to focus on some big (and little) names across various passing games.
So my NFL picks this week are backing one of the most reliable QBs in the league, two one of the most explosive WRs around, and an emerging positional matchup that might become a weekly auto-bet.
Latest NFL prop picks
Flowers o54.5 rec yards
(-113 at FanDuel)
Purdy o227.5 pass yards
(-114 at FanDuel)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
NFL prop picks for Week 3
Zay Flowers Over 54.5 receiving yards
Normally when you see a team facing the Dallas Cowboys, you'd think that betting on Overs would be dangerous, but I think there's value to betting on Zay Flowers' odds to go beyond his receiving yardage total in the marquee late afternoon matchup.
The electric sophomore is the clear No. 1 target in the Baltimore Ravens passing game with a team-leading 21 targets — a number that puts him fourth among all pass-catchers in the league.
His speed and ability to change direction give him a chance to turn any play into a big game, but he also should have a very exploitable defensive matchup against Caelen Carson most of the afternoon.
Flowers lines up wide right on about 50% of his snaps, which should pit him against the fifth-round rookie in Carson, who was elevated into the starting lineup after a preseason injury to DaRon Bland. Carson has been targeted 11 times through two games this season, giving up seven catches for 80 yards.
The Ravens just need to get the ball in Flowers' hands, and Carson doesn't seem like a big threat to stopping that. With Baltimore's defense also struggling and Dallas' passing attack capable of putting up points in bunches, we could see a bit more passing from Lamar Jackson & Co. — only further helping Zay's chances of having a big day.
Pick made on 9-20 at 7:25 p.m. ET
Brock Purdy Over 227.5 passing yards
I originally had San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle in this article, but with news that he is doubtful for Sunday, I'm pivoting to San Fran's quarterback instead and taking the Over on Brock Purdy's odds to top a passing yards total that is just too low.
This has taken some steam Friday afternoon, moving from 220.5 to 227.5, but I'm still very comfortable with that number because the Los Angeles Rams defense is just that bad
The Rams have allowed a 71.4% completion rate and the worst yards/completion (13.8) mark this season, while allowing the second-most yards per coverage snap and struggling to generate much of a pass rush with Aaron Donald now retired.
Even without Kittle and Deebo Samuel, Purdy still has Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings as targets and is facing a total that he has topped in 17 of his last 19 games overall, including Week 1's 231 yards in a run-heavy script against the Jets and 319 yards last week.
Projections put Purdy as high as 270 yards on Sunday, with an average of about 255, which gives me plenty of confidence he can go Over this number on Sunday.
Pick made on 9-20 at 7:13 p.m. ET
Greg Dortch Over 28.5 receiving yards
This is a positional opportunity play, as the Detroit Lions pass defense has been brutal in terms of defending slot receivers, and that has me looking at Greg Dortch odds to top his receiving yards total of 28.5.
Dortch is the WR3 on the Arizona Cardinals based on total snap count but he spends a team-high 48% of his snaps lined up in the slot and ranks in the Top 12 among slot receivers in catch rate, target rate, yards per route run, and deep-target rate (per ProFootballFocus).
He hauled in six catches on eight targets for 47 yards in a tight Week 1 loss to Buffalo before totaling just 11 yards on two targets in a blowout win against Los Angeles last week — but it should be noted that Arizona got up big early and just coasted to a win, with Dortch playing his lowest snap count since Week 9 of last season.
Detroit's run defense is very good, which should skew this game towards more passing, and again: The Lions' slot coverage has been BAD, posting the 11th-worst explosive pass play rate and fifth-highest target rate.
Lining up in the slot, Cooper Kupp caught 11/14 targets for 94 yards in Week 1, while Chris Godwin went 6/7 for 116 yards in Week 2. I'm not saying Dortch is on the level of those stars, but he's facing a yardage total roughly 2-3x lower.
With the possibility of this game becoming a shootout, I'd expect Dortch's involvement to be closer to that of Week 1 than Week 2.
Pick made on 9-20 at 8:27 am ET
Rashid Shaheed longest reception Over 22.5 yards
If you haven't met Rashid Shaheed yet, well let me introduce you to one of the most electric big-play receivers in the NFL.
#Saints stats, per @ZebraTechnology
— RevDeuce (@RevDeuceWindham) September 17, 2024
Derek Carr's connection to Rashid Shaheed in Week 2 traveled 54.5 yards through the air. This was Shaheed's 7th catch over 50 air yards since 2023. No other NFL WR has more than 4.
Alvin Kamara faced a stacked box (8+defenders) on 45% of his…
The wide receiver has been one of the biggest early beneficiaries of this revamped New Orleans Saints offense, with a team-leading nine targets, seven catches, and 169 yards through two games, and he's constantly threatening teams downfield, which has me looking to bet his longest reception Over 21.5 yards against a suspect Philadelphia Eagles secondary.
In addition to logging receptions of 13, 17, 59, and 70 yards already, he has an average depth of target of 17.6 yards (seventh-highest in the NFL) after posting an aDOT of 14.6 in 2023 (14th among all WRs).
Then there's the Eagles, a secondary that is a mix of kinda-too-young (with rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean) and maybe-too-old (Darius Slay, Avonte Maddox, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson). The result is a unit that has given up the fifth-most passing yards and second-most yards per completion, while the front seven has the second-lowest pressure rate in the league.
Philly has also coughed up the third-most completions of 20+ yards (seven) already and has allowed a 40+ yard completion in each game, so I'm confident that the sizzling Saints offense will exploit the Eagles vertically, with Shaheed likely to do the damage.
Pick made on 9-19 at 3:57 p.m. ET
Antonio Gibson Over 22.5 rushing yards
The New England Patriots are tied for third in the NFL in rushing attempts and fifth in yards through two weeks, and face a New York Jets defense on Thursday that just allowed 130 rushing yards to the Titans... after giving up 180 to the Niners.
New York will also be playing its third game in 10 days and could be without MLB C.J. Mosley, so I'm expecting the Pats to focus on the good ol' ground-and-pound once again.
Now, Rhamondre Stevenson is the undisputed RB1 for New England, but I'm looking at backup Antonio Gibson's odds to top his rushing total, which you can find at just 22.5 yards at FanDuel.
Stevenson dominated the snaps and had 25 carries in Week 1 while Gibson managed just seven rushes, but last week we saw a much more reasonable distribution, with 21 carries for Rhamondre and 11 for the veteran Gibson, who turned that into 96 yards.
I could see an even more balanced run split on what is a short week for New England following a tough overtime loss on Sunday, especially considering Stevenson (the team's best offensive weapon overall) has had more carries in the last two games than any prior two-game stretch in his career.
This number opened at 19.5 for Gibson and has steadily moved, with FanDuel the only book still hanging a 22.5, but with industry projections ranging as high as 33 yards, I'm confident he'll get enough work against a struggling run defense to top this number.
Pick made on 9-18 at 6:27 p.m. ET
NFL Week 3 prop betting card
- Antonio Gibson o22.5 rushing yards (-113)
- Rashid Shaheed longest reception o22.5 yards (-114)
- Greg Dortch o28.5 receiving yards (-114)
- Brock Purdy o227.5 pass yards (-114)
- Zay Flowers o54.5 receiving yards (-113)
Last week: 1-4, -2.13 units
Season: 3-7, -3.62 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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