The Eagles and Dolphins impressed in Week 3 while some of the top dogs are slipping heading into Week 4. Can Tampa figure it out offensively under Todd Bowles? Are the Dolphins and Eagles contenders? Is Jacksonville ready to make the jump to a playoff team? Here are my NFL power rankings after three weeks of the 2022 NFL season.
In games on a neutral field, every higher-ranked team would be favored or, at least, a pick 'em on the moneyline in this format. For two teams ranked closely together, the difference in the spread would be a home-field advantage (if any), which varies slightly from team to team.
NFL power rankings for Week 4
| Rank | Team | Record | Super Bowl Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | 2-1 | +400 |
| 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | 2-1 | +750 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Rams | 2-1 | +1,500 |
| 4 | Green Bay Packers | 2-1 | +900 |
| 5 | Philadelphia Eagles | 3-0 | +800 |
| 6 | Miami Dolphins | 3-0 | +1,800 |
| 7 | Baltimore Ravens | 2-1 | +1,800 |
| 8 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2-1 | +1,000 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Chargers | 1-2 | +2,200 |
| 10 | San Francisco 49ers | 1-2 | +1,800 |
| 11 | Dallas Cowboys | 2-1 | +3,000 |
| 12 | Indianapolis Colts | 1-1-1 | +3,500 |
| 13 | Minnesota Vikings | 2-1 | +2,800 |
| 14 | Cincinnati Bengals | 1-2 | +3,000 |
| 15 | New Orleans Saints | 1-2 | +7,000 |
| 16 | Cleveland Browns | 2-1 | +5,000 |
| 17 | Jacksonvile Jaguars | 2-1 | +6,000 |
| 18 | Arizona Cardinals | 1-2 | +7,000 |
| 19 | Dever Broncos | 2-1 | +2,500 |
| 20 | Tennessee Titans | 1-2 | +8,000 |
| 21 | New England Patriots | 1-2 | +10,000 |
| 22 | Las Vegas Raiders | 0-3 | +7,000 |
| 23 | Detroit Lions | 1-2 | +8,000 |
| 24 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1-2 | +15,000 |
| 25 | New York Giants | 2-1 | +10,000 |
| 26 | Atlanta Falcons | 1-2 | +30,000 |
| 27 | Washington Commanders | 1-2 | +15,000 |
| 28 | Seattle Seahawks | 1-2 | +50,000 |
| 29 | Carolina Panthers | 1-2 | +10,000 |
| 30 | New York Jets | 1-2 | +30,000 |
| 31 | Chicago Bears | 2-1 | +25,000 |
| 32 | Houston Texans | 0-2-1 | +50,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings. Compare updated NFL Futures odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Sliding: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8th)
The Tom Brady demise is in full swing as Todd Bowles' offense is putrid and missing a ton of pieces. This banged-up group of receivers isn't doing its 45-year-old quarterback any favors. With Bruce Arians gone, this team is leaning on the run more and when it does drop back, is giving up a lot of pressure and Brady isn't looking downfield.
This is offense currently sits 30th in EPA/play and dead last in rush EPA. Tampa is only staying competitive due to its defense, which is still one of the best in the league. The delay of game on the potentially game-tying two-point conversion last week sums up Tampa's season to date.
Tier jumpers: Jacksonville Jaguars (17th)
The Jags jumped up a full tier from last week and are now in the middle of the pack with their arrow pointing up. They blanked the Colts in Week 2 and then convincingly beat a very good Chargers team at SoFi. Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson have been a great couple this season with a Top-7 offense in EPA/play.
Lawrence currently sits second in CPOE and fifth in adjusted EPA/play. Pederson's usage of James Robinson and Travis Etienne is creative and productive. I want a bigger sample size before I call this a good defense but it currently sits third in EPA/play. Jacksonville could be 2021's Bengals.
Offensive struggles: New Orleans Saints (15th)
The Saints were a fringe Top-10 team heading into the season but a late win vs. the Falcons in Week 1, a 10-point outing vs. the Bucs in Week 2, followed by an embarrassing 22-14 loss to the Panthers last week has me quite sour on Dennis Allen's squad. Like the Bucs, this is still a great defense, but if Jameis Winston and his back issues can't score vs. the Panthers, you're falling in my rankings.
The books had the Saints as just two-point road favorites for Week 3 vs. Carolina, so they knew this was not a great team heading into last week. They sit in the Bottom 3 in most offensive metrics, are converting third downs at a 33% clip, and Winston's back problems will likely be a season-long issue if he holds onto the starting gig. They do play at home five times over their next six games, but if they don't go 4-2 over that stretch, a 9-8 record could be tough with a gauntlet of a late schedule.
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