Raiders vs Broncos Week 1 Picks and Predictions: Improved Offenses Lead to Exciting Opening Tilt in Denver

The 2023 NFL season kicks off this week, and we get a rivalry showdown between the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos on Sunday. Both of these franchises are coming off disappointing seasons, and the Raiders will be looking to improve under new quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, while the Broncos hope that new coach Sean Payton can revitalize Russell Wilson after an ugly 2022 campaign.

NFL betting lines opened with the Broncos as 3.5-point home favorites, with the Over/Under at 44 for this AFC West clash. Here are my best free Raiders vs. Broncos NFL picks and predictions for September 10.

Raiders vs Broncos odds

Raiders vs Broncos predictions

The Broncos averaged a league-low 16.9 points per game last year, which was even more embarrassing when you consider that they paid a king's ransom for Russell Wilson to elevate their offense. Wilson shit the bed for his new team, posting career low numbers in completion percentage (60.5%), passing touchdowns (16), and QB rating (84.4).

There were other reasons for Denver's offensive struggles, including injuries at the skill positions, poor offensive line play, and disastrous coaching under Nathaniel Hackett. 

Denver signed reliable linemen Ben Powers and Mike McGlinchey in free agency, while returning left tackle Garrett Bolles and center Lloyd Cushenberry will be healthy after missing a combined 21 games last year. With better blockers in front of him, Wilson should make strides in his second year in Denver, especially with Payton taking over.

Hackett might have been the worst coach in the league, and his atrocious play-calling should be a distant memory with an offensive guru like Payton now calling the shots. Expect the Broncos to move the ball well against a Raiders defense that ranked 30th in the league in defensive EPA a year ago and won't be much better despite signing corner Marcus Peters. 

That said, while Denver's offense should be improved, it's defense could regress. The Broncos have a strong secondary anchored by lockdown corner Pat Surtain and safety Justin Simmons. However, they weren't great against the run (21st in defensive rush EPA), and their pass rush ranked just 25th in pressure rate.

Denver added Frank Clark in the offseason to boost that pass rush, but he hasn't posted more than six sacks in a year since 2019. His addition is offset by the subtraction of Bradley Chubb, who was traded away midseason. 

The Raiders offense should also be better after releasing Derek Carr following a down year and replacing him with Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo was putting together a strong campaign for San Fran in 2022 (103.0 pass efficiency rating through 11 games) before suffering a season-ending injury.

Garoppolo's durability might be a concern, but he'll be ready to cook in Week 1. It also helps that he has a pair of dynamic weapons in three-time All-Pro wideout Davante Adams and running back Josh Jacobs, who led the NFL with 1,653 rushing yards last year. 

Expect the presence of Payton and Garoppolo to raise the level of both attacks and take the Over.

My best bet: Over 43 (-110 at bet365)

Raiders vs Broncos same-game parlay

Over 43.5

Russell Wilson Over 224.5 Passing Yards

Josh Jacobs Over 71.5 Rushing Yards

+425 at bet365

Even in Wilson's terrible 2022 campaign, he averaged 234.9 passing yards per game. With Payton getting him dialed in and the line set to provide better protection, Wilson should eclipse this low number against a Raiders stop unit that ranked second-last in the league in dropback EPA a year ago. 

Jacobs seems due for regression after surpassing his previous career-high in rushing yards by more than 500 yards — not coincidently in a contract year. However, he averaged 97.2 rushing yards per game last year and broke the 100-yard mark in both games against Denver. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Raiders vs Broncos spread and Over/Under analysis

This line has bounced around a bit with the Broncos opening as 3.5-point favorites and shifting to -5.5 before going back down to the opening number of -3.5 on Saturday. The total opened at 44.5 but has ticked down to 43. 

If you're trying to factor in Denver's home-field advantage at high altitude, keep in mind that Las Vegas dominated this rivalry in recent years. In fact, the Raiders have won six straight games against the Broncos (including three in a row at Mile High) while going 10-1 against the spread in the last 11. 

Raiders vs Broncos betting trend to know

The Broncos have hit the second half game total Over in their last four games (+4.00 Units / 90% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Broncos.

Raiders vs Broncos game info

Raiders vs Broncos latest injuries

Raiders vs Broncos weather

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