Tua Tagovailoa wants to play in Miami’s second preseason game, and he’s telling anybody who will listen. Whether or not he will get his wish remains to be seen on Saturday, when the Las Vegas Raiders visit the Dolphins. The Raiders have already played two preseason games, and will likely be without Derek Carr and Davante Adams yet again.
Las Vegas has a real battle going on for their backup quarterback position, and it should lead to the visitors having a strong offensive performance. Will it be enough to get them the win? Find out in our Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins NFL picks and predictions for Saturday, August 20.
Raiders vs Dolphins odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Las Vegas opened as a two-point favorite at most books, but has slightly dipped to laying just a single point. The total opened between 38 and 41.5 points depending on the book, and has settled at 41.5 nearly everywhere.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Raiders vs Dolphins predictions
Predictions made on 8/20/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Raiders vs Dolphins game info
• Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
• Date: Saturday, August 20, 2022
• Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: DAZN
Raiders at Dolphins betting preview
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The Under is 4-1 in the Raiders’ last five games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Dolphins.
Raiders vs Dolphins picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
It’s unlikely we will see the Raiders run out their big guns in their third preseason game. After wins over the Vikings and Jaguars, head coach Josh McDaniel is unlikely to risk the health of quarterback Derek Carr or star receiver Davante Adams. Carr’s last preseason snaps took place in 2019, so seeing him here would be a true shock.
That just means more of an opportunity for Jarrett Stidham and Nick Mullens to battle it out. Mullens was expected to be the backup quarterback this season, but Stidham’s performances this preseason have turned quite a few heads. Mullens completed seven of nine attempts for 94 yards and a score against the Vikings, while Stidham completed just 10 of 15 for only 68 yards. His legs, however, led him to a touchdown and his athleticism gives him that X-factor that could win him the job.
Running back Josh Jacobs is questionable for this contest, and that might not be the worst thing in the world. McDaniels is rotating his offensive line like a merry-go-round, and had six different players at right tackle last week. He’s stated he wants his players to get experience at different roles given the injury issues that take place during the season, and as he tries to lock down just who will start on the right side of the line.
Mike McDaniel has been extra cautious with his starters so far in the preseason, and Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t been the biggest fan. He’s publicly lobbied to start against the Raiders, saying he wants the first team to get some plays in this contest. It’s not a bad idea, given the new system and the fact that Tagovailoa has thrown five picks in his last two practices combined.
Skylar Thompson played all 60 minutes against the Buccaneers, whom they defeated 26-24 thanks to a missed field goal in the closing moments. He performed well, throwing for 218 yards and a touchdown while completing 20 of his 28 attempts. Lynn Bowden Jr — whom the Dolphins acquired in 2020 from the Raiders before he ever played a game for them — caught three of his four targets for 55 yards and the score.
Should Tua not play, it’ll be interesting to see if Teddy Bridgewater gets any run. There are also some questions surrounding the availability of second-year receiver Jaylen Waddle, who didn’t play against Tampa and was held out of practice this week with an undisclosed issue. Tyreek Hill is unlikely to be risked, either, so it could be another opportunity for Bowden and Mohamed Sanu to battle for depth chart spots. They will also likely be without left tackle Terron Armstead, who did not practice.
There are some concerns on defense, however, after they were carved apart by Tampa Bay. Kyle Trask and Blaine Gabbert threw for more than 300 yards on 30 of 38 passing, with a pair of touchdowns. They were sacked just twice, and spent much of the game getting plenty of time to scan the field. The Dolphins had the fifth-highest sack total in the NFL last season, and they’ll hope to do better against the Raiders’ revolving door of linemen.
If I had to put money on it, I’d bet against Tua starting. Asking him to do so without his top two targets or his left tackle would be putting him in a precarious situation where he not only could see a poor performance hit his confidence even more, but could lead to him getting hurt. His coach is being protective, and those things have to be in the back of his mind. However, the public seems to think he will start, as the line has moved slightly as the week has gone along with the Raiders going from two-point favorites down to one point.
Oakland has averaged more than 300 yards of offense through two games, despite the changes on the line and their biggest weapon on offense not taking a snap. With two quarterbacks playing well, and who know a poor game could doom them to third-string, I expect them to repeat what Tampa Bay did to Miami’s defense and put up some solid passing numbers. Bet on the Raiders to take this one on the road.
Prediction: Raiders moneyline (-115 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
The quarterback situation for Miami makes this such a tough total to break down. Will Tua start? If not, the next question becomes whether Thompson gets another full game, or whether former Pro Bowl quarterback Teddy Bridgewater takes the snaps. Then you have to consider the fact that the Raiders struggled mightily against the Vikings’ run game, as they gave up more than five yards a carry to two different backs.
If Miami starts Bridgewater, I could see plenty of running and play-action passing. This would shorten the game a fair amount and keep the total down. However, it could also lead to some big plays with Bowden down the field.
The Raiders will put up offensive numbers and do their part. I’m just not sure the Dolphins will do the same. The public has been torn, with some books seeing their total shoot up and others seeing the number drop a bit. I’m going to go with my gut and take the Under, but without knowing what Miami’s going to do in terms of starters, it really is a bit of a gamble either way.
Prediction: Under 41.5 (-110 at bet365)
Best bet
I’m all over the Raiders to win this one. Even if Tua starts, there’s no guarantee it will lead to success for the Dolphins given how he’s performed this week in practice. Their defense couldn’t cover anybody last week, and they should have lost the game on a last-second field goal. Cornerback Byron Jones is still out, and with the loss of Trill Williams and Tino Ellis, their lack of depth at corner was thoroughly exposed.
Through their first two games, Las Vegas has committed just 10 penalties and have yet to turn the ball over. They’re executing well, and they’ve got two quarterbacks pushing each other. For me, things like that are what give you a big edge in the preseason as you look to prepare for the real games. Give me the team firing on multiple fronts over the one trying to figure out who they are actually going to play.
Pick: Raiders moneyline (-115 at DraftKings)
