NFL betting for Week 14 is capped off with an AFC North rivalry matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and the Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football.
Cleveland is coming off its biggest statement win of the year over Tennessee, while the Ravens are finally getting healthy and will look to repeat the 38-6 beatdown they gave Cleveland in Week 1.
Despite sitting two games ahead of Baltimore in the standings, NFL odds have the home Browns as two-point underdogs, with the total sitting at 47 points.
Here are our best free NFL picks and predictions for Ravens vs. Browns on Monday, December 14, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET.
Editor's note: this preview was updated to reflect that Mark Andrews, who was activated off the COVID-19/reserve list, is expected to play on Monday night.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns Betting Preview
Weather
It will be a chilly Monday night in Cleveland, with temperatures at 32 degrees but feeling more like 18 degrees down on the field, with wind gusts up to 27 mph. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Ravens: Matt Judon LB (Out), Mark Andrews TE (Questionable), Dez Bryant WR (Out), Jimmy Smith CB (Questionable), Tramon Williams CB (Questionable), Chris Moore WR (Questionable), Calais Campbell DE (Questionable).
Browns: J.C. Tretter C (Questionable), Jack Conklin T (Questionable), Wyatt Teller G (Questionable), Denzel Ward CB (Questionable), KhaDarel Hodge WR (Out), Mack Wilson LB (Questionable), Greedy Williams CB (Out), Austin Hooper TE (Questionable).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Under is 9-2 in Cleveland's last 11 home games against teams with a winning record. Find more NFL betting trends for Ravens vs. Browns.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
Cleveland has won four straight games, including a beatdown at Tennessee last week in which it led 38-7 at halftime, while the Ravens have lost four of their last six games. So why are the Browns home underdogs? Well, Baltimore embarrassed Cleveland in Week 1—and 20 years of general misery makes it physically impossible to believe the Browns are for real.
But fear not, Browns backers: we simply see this as an opportunity to cash in. First, let's throw away that Week 1 loss, which was basically a preseason game in this weird 2020 campaign. And second, these teams are drastically different now than they were three months ago.
Cleveland is second in the NFL at 157.8 rushing yards per game, but it also (when it's not ugly weather) can throw the ball when needed. QB Baker Mayfield still misses too many easy throws, but he was on point last week when he went 25/33 for 334 yards and four touchdowns, and is effective working out of the play-action. As dominant as Cleveland is in the running game, it's equally tough defensively, yielding the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game.
Cleveland's weakness is a depleted secondary, but the Ravens are not equipped to exploit that deficiency. Baltimore is the only team that runs for more yards per game than Cleveland, but QB Lamar Jackson is not throwing the ball even remotely as effectively as he did in his 2019 MVP season.
Jackson's 270 passing yards in Week 1 is still his season-high—and he's only topped 200 passing yards three times this campaign. That's led to Baltimore sitting dead-last in the NFL in passing (even below the Jets!), although it is expected to get its top receiving threat back in TE Mark Andrews, who was activated off the COVID-19 list this weekend. Add in that the Ravens defense is also dinged up, allowing at least 111 rushing yards in four of their last five games, and Baltimore simply does not match up well with the Browns right now.
Despite the win last week, nobody will truly believe in the Browns until they go and beat their hated division rival. I think this is the week the Dawg Pound finally gets the respect it deserves.
PREDICTION: Cleveland +2 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings, including going Under in Week 1's total of 47, and I'm expecting this game to go Under as well.
We have the league's two best rushing attacks, which means a lot of clock is going to get chewed up. Add in an offense that generally only passes when it needs to (Cleveland) and a passing attack that is just plain bad (Baltimore) and I don't think we'll see many big scoring plays, nor will each team get that many drives to put up a big scoring total.
This should be a classic, hard-nosed AFC North grind-it-out-battle, which has us believing it won't top 47 points.
PREDICTION: Under 47 (-110)
First Quarter Spread Pick
Cleveland is a team that loves to run, wear down defenses, and pull away late in the game. It's a strategy that's worked for the 9-3 Browns this season, but it also means that they've been one of the slowest-starting teams offensively.
The Browns are 26th in the NFL at 3.8 points per game in first quarters and have been even worse at home, averaging just 2.2 points in the first 15 minutes.
The Ravens, on the other hand, waste little time getting going, as they average 6.5 points per first quarter and have been trailing going into the second quarter just twice this season.
I don't think the Ravens win the game, but I do think they can hold a lead following the opening frame.
PREDICTION: Baltimore first quarter -0.5 (-102)
Ravens vs Browns Betting Card
- Cleveland +2 (-110)
- Under 47 (-110)
- Baltimore first quarter -0.5 (-102)
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