The remaining leftovers are normally slim pickings by Sunday on Thanksgiving Weekend.
You may have a few weirdo pieces of turkey lingering, a couple of spoonfuls of discolored mashed potatoes, and the skin on top of the remaining gravy is about as thick as a rhino’s ass.
However, NFL Week 12 odds have left us with a tasty dish: the Los Angeles Chargers hosting the Baltimore Ravens tonight on Sunday Night Football.
Baltimore is coming off a mini-bye following a win last Thursday night and laying a short spread as road faves, with a 5-1 SU record and 4-2 ATS mark in its last six games.
Los Angeles is hoping this holiday weekend home tilt can snap its two-game skid and breathe new life into a postseason push in the final stretch of the schedule. Let's break down the latest SNF odds as I give my best NFL picks for Ravens vs. Chargers on November 26.
Be sure to also check out our three favorite Ravens vs Chargers prop picks and our spotlight on Lamar Jackson props.
Ravens vs Chargers odds
Ravens vs Chargers predictions
My first bet of Week 12 was Over 45.5 points for the Ravens vs. Chargers when the odds hit the board on Sunday night. This total has since climbed as much as a field goal, sitting at 48.5 points at some books.
Given that the best of the number is long gone with the game total, I’m narrowing my view and looking at Baltimore’s production. I also wagered on the Ravens’ team total earlier in the week, getting Over 25.5 points.
This number is still available with a little extra juice as of Thursday afternoon. I fully expect Baltimore to do the lion’s share of the scoring, given its recent output and the feeble defense standing in their way.
The Ravens are the hottest offense in the NFL entering Thanksgiving Week, averaging more than 34 points per game in their last five outings. Baltimore ranks second in EPA per play and No. 4 in success rate per play during this span.
However, that unit took a hit with an injury to standout tight end Mark Andrews in last week's win over Cincinnati, with Andrews suffering severe leg and ankle injuries.
The Ravens’ receiving corps has some other notable injuries showing up as well (Odell Beckham Jr., Zay Flowers, Devin Duvernay, and Rashod Bateman) but given the 10-day break, it sounds like most of those WRs have a good shot of playing Sunday night.
The Chargers defense has had an extremely tough time slowing down opposing passing games. Los Angeles, which ranks in the lower third of most pass defense measurements, has buckled against elite air attack, giving up a ton of points and yards to the likes of Tua Tagovailoa, Kirk Cousins, Patrick Mahomes, and Jared Goff.
Star quarterback Lamar Jackson is arguably more dangerous than all those names. Not only does Jackson have the downfield chops to exploit the Bolts secondary, but his ability to break off gains with his legs adds another element that L.A. has to worry about.
The Chargers have allowed the sixth most red zone visits for opposing offenses, giving up touchdowns on almost 53% of those RZ stands. The Ravens, with their top-rated run game, don’t miss often inside the 20-yard line with the league’s fourth-best TD percentage (65.22%).
Put this game on the fast indoor surface of SoFi Stadium — where Lamar’s explosiveness is supercharged — and the Ravens will keep running up the scores and top this team total of 25.5 points on Sunday night.
My best bet: Baltimore Ravens team total Over 25.5 (-116 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Ravens vs Chargers same-game parlay
Ravens team total Over 25.5
Lamar Jackson anytime touchdown
Lamar Jackson Over 44.5 rushing yards
The NFL’s hottest offense can hurt L.A. in a number of ways and we’ve seen the Bolts buckle against elite QBs. The Chargers have allowed a league-high four rushing TDs to quarterbacks and Jackson is a live option inside the red zone.
Jackson also won’t have his favorite security blanket in Andrews when the Bolts bring the heat. With the L.A. pass rush improving, expect Lamar to escape and break off gains on the ground.
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Ravens vs Chargers spread and Over/Under analysis
The Ravens opened as 3.5-point road chalk for this trip to La-La Land and this spread has bounced between Baltimore -3.5 and -4 most of the week. As of Thursday, the industry consensus is Ravens -3.5 with Covers Consensus showing 62% of picks siding with the visitors.
Baltimore has been one of the better teams in the NFL since October, getting it done on both sides of the ball after injuries slowed this team in September. The Ravens rank No. 1 in Total DVOA at FTN and sit No. 6 in EPA per play and No. 2 in EPA allowed per play heading into Week 12.
Los Angeles was hoping to have the same two-way strength in 2023, but neither the offense nor the defense has stepped up. The Bolts' stop unit ranks 28th in yards allowed per play and sits Bottom 5 in both Defensive DVOA and EPA allowed per play.
Offensively, L.A. has been hit with injuries to some top skill players and that’s made life difficult under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. However, Los Angeles has found success in the last three outings, scoring 0.457 points per play (seventh in that span).
The Chargers are also a much better offense inside the fast track of SoFi Field, putting up almost 29 points per home game. Given the state of their defense, this run-in with the Ravens could turn out to be a shootout — just like we saw when the Bolts bumped into other high-scoring offenses like the Dolphins, Lions, and Vikings.
Sunday night’s Over/Under total opened as low as 45.5 points and quickly climbed to as high as 48.5 points. Covers Consensus shows 62% of picks on the Over.
Baltimore enters this primetime game with a 5-6 Over/Under count on the year but the team’s recent offensive explosion — averaging 34.2 points the past five games — has produced a 4-1 O/U record in that span.
As for L.A., the Chargers are a surprising 3-7 to the O/U despite owning an above-average offense and terrible defense. Totals for the Bolts have been puffed up and that’s taken some of the value out of the Over, especially at home (2-3 O/U as a host).
Ravens vs Chargers betting trend to know
Since moving to Los Angeles in 2017, the Chargers are 27-25 straight up and 21-29-2 against the spread at home. Find more NFL betting trends for Ravens vs. Chargers.
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Ravens vs Chargers game info
| Location: | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, November 26, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
| Opening odds: | Chargers +3.5, 44.5 O/U |
Ravens vs Chargers latest injuries
Ravens vs Chargers weather
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