Best NFL Sack and Tackle Props for Week 12: Hunter On the Prowl Against the Bears

We've already had four Week 12 odds opportunities but there are still 12 games remaining on the NFL betting board heading into Sunday. That includes a marquee matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles where I'm eyeing a pair of defensive player props.

I'm also diving into the NFL odds for Monday Night Football where I'm backing one of the league's best pass rushers in a juicy matchup against a division foe. Here are my favorite sack and tackle NFL picks for Week 12.

This week’s best sack and tackle props

• Jalen Carter Under 0.25 sacks (-165 at bet365)
• George Karlaftis Over 0.25 sacks (-110 at DraftKings)
• Danielle Hunter Over 0.75 sacks (-125 at DraftKings)
• Kenny Moore II Over 4.5 solo tackles (-115 at bet365)
• Zach Cunningham Under 7.5 total tackles (+105 at DraftKings)

Picks made on November 25 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of our sack picks and our tackle props

Best Week 12 sack picks

Bills vs Eagles: Jalen Carter

Philadelphia's Jalen Carter is having a fantastic rookie campaign with a pass rush grade of 87.5 per PFF, which ranks fifth-best number among all interior linemen. However, even though he consistently beats his blocker, he doesn't often get to the quarterback and he actually has just half a sack in his last four games.

There are a few reasons for that. One is that the Eagles prefer to rotate their linemen and Carter typically plays in about 50% of their defensive snaps. The other is that while he often flushes QBs out of the pocket, it's edge rushers like Hassan Reddick and Josh Sweat who end up with the sacks.

In Sunday's matchup against the Bills, it won't be easy for anyone to get a sack against Josh Allen. Allen has been sacked just nine times in his last 10 games. Even if Carter is able to get penetration up the middle, Allen will likely use his wheels to scamper to the sidelines. Fade Jalen Carter odds on his sacks prop. 

Jalen Carter Prop: Under 0.25 sacks (-165 at bet365)

Chiefs vs Raiders: George Karlaftis

George Karlaftis is enjoying a breakout sophomore season for the Chiefs. The 2022 first-round selection has picked up at least half a sack in four of his last five games and had a career-high 2.5 sacks against the Broncos last month. Karlaftis is a high-motor end who does a good job of finishing plays after Chris Jones flushes quarterbacks out of the pocket.

He gets a juicy matchup this week as he could be locking horns with another second-year player in Raiders right tackle Thayer Munford Jr. Unlike Karlaftis, Munford fell all the way to the seventh round and he has only been thrust into a starting position the last two weeks because of an injury to left tackle Kolton Miller (with usual RT Jermaine Eluemunor shifting over to the blindside).

Munford has struggled there, posting a pass-blocking grade of 58.1 and allowing three sacks over the last two weeks. Even if Miller does end up playing on Sunday (he's currently listed as questionable), Eluemunor might not fare much better on the right side since his pass-blocking grade is just 58.4.

In fact, right tackle has been a problem area for the Raiders all year and an incredible 41.3% of the pressure allowed on quarterback Aidan O'Connell has come from that position. Regardless of who plays on the right side, expect George Karlaftis odds to hit the Over on this prop.

George Karlaftis Prop: Over 0.25 sacks (-110 at DraftKings)

MNF Bears vs Vikings: Danielle Hunter

Bears quarterback Justin Fields has been sacked 26 times in seven games this season. Two of those came at the hands of Minnesota's Danielle Hunter in Week 6. Hunter has enjoyed a highly productive career with the Vikings and racked up 14.5 sacks in back-to-back years in 2018 and 2019. He's on pace to have an even better season in 2023 with 12 sacks through 11 games.

Hunter has also been consistent week-to-week with at least one sack in nine of 11 contests. The speedy end primarily lines up on the left side, which means he'll face off against Bears rookie right tackle Darnell Wright on Monday. Wright has a promising future, but he has surrendered six sacks this year and was fortunate that he wasn't credited for either of the sacks that Hunter got against him during that previous matchup. 

With Fields' tendency to hold on to the ball too long combined with Wright's inability to block Hunter, expect Danielle Hunter odds to play out against Fields on Monday.

Danielle Hunter Prop: Over 0.75 sacks (-125 at DraftKings)

Best Week 12 tackle picks

Buccaneers vs Colts: Kenny Moore II

Kenny Moore has been the Colts' best cornerback this year and he has been filling up the tackle sheet. Moore is second on the team with 51 solo stops and he should be busy on Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs had been running the ball too much under offensive coordinator Dave Canales but he seems to have finally realized that they have the worst ground game in the league, and has been airing it out more often in recent weeks.

Tampa Bay's best players are wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and they should be using them as much as possible against a vulnerable Colts secondary. That would mean plenty of work for the steady Moore. With the Kenny Moore odds on solo tackles set at 4.5, a number he has eclipsed in seven consecutive games, hammer the Over here.

Kenny Moore II Prop: Over 4.5 solo tackles (-115 at bet365)

Bills vs Eagles: Zach Cunningham

Zach Cunningham's Over 7.5 tackles is priced at -135. That's a bit surprising when you consider that Over 7.5 tackles for his teammate Reed Blankenship is set at +114 despite Blankenship having more tackles in two fewer games this year. Cunningham hasn't been making a huge impact lately.

In fact, over his last six games, he's logged more than seven tackles just once and is averaging a modest 5.3 tackles per game during that span. With the Eagles facing a Bills offense that spreads the ball around to different parts of the field, take the Under on Cunningham's inflated tackles total.

Zach Cunningham Prop: Under 7.5 total tackles (+105 at DraftKings)

How are sack and tackle props calculated?

It's important to read the wording associated with the sack props at each specific sportsbook. Most books will list an Over/Under number which is set at 0.25 or 0.75, since players can be credited for 0.5 sacks for sharing a sack with a teammate. Other books will mark a sack as a "yes" or "no" proposition in which case half a sack will count as the player recording a sack. 

Books often have props for solo tackles, assists, and tackles which are made up of both solo tackles and assisted.

Best strategies to bet sack and tackle props

There are several factors to consider when handicapping sack totals. The most obvious involves the defensive player himself. How often does he get sacks both in terms of his recent history and also over a larger sample size, and does he consistently generate pressure. A player might have picked up sacks in three consecutive games but if he doesn't consistently beat his blocker, he's likely due for regression. On the other side of things, a player might be held off the sack sheet in four straight games, but if he's constantly pressuring opposing passers, it's only a matter of time before he gets a sack.

Who the defender is matching up against is also an important factor. How well does the projected starter opposite from him perform as a pass blocker and is that opposing player injured or playing out of position? In addition, is the offense able or willing to double-team the defender? Certain quarterbacks also hold on to the ball longer, have less pocket awareness, or don't have the mobility to evade pass rushers.

It's also important to consider how the rest of his team will affect a player's ability to get sacks. Perhaps his defensive coordinator is using him more in coverage, perhaps another defender is poaching his sacks or allowing him to get easier matchups. Improved play in the secondary can also lead to coverage sacks.

Game situation also matters since an offense that throws the ball a lot or is expected to play from behind, will also give a defense more opportunity to get sacks. 

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