NFL First Touchdown Props Week 5: Etienne Gets the Jags Rolling

A horrendous end to last season has bled into the start of this season for the Jaguars, and Travis Etienne will be called upon with his team staring down the barrel of an 0-5 start.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Oct 5, 2024 • 11:09 ET • 4 min read
Travis Etienne Jacksonville Jaguars NFL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The NFL season continues at pace, with every Sunday coming sooner than the last. Here, I take what we’ve learned so far this season and make NFL predictions for the three most likely first-touchdown scorers on tomorrow's slate.

Here are my best NFL picks for Sunday, October 6.

Week 5 first touchdown scorer props

Read full analysis of each pick.

Best Week 5 first TD picks

First TD prop bet #1: Jayden Reed

Best odds: +650 at DraftKings

The Green Bay Packers play at SoFi on Sunday, and I'm taking Jayden Reed to open the scoring. This Rams pass rush isn’t what it was, and Los Angeles is allowing 1.75 touchdowns to receivers per game.

If there’s one Packers wideout you can count on, it’s Reed. He’s been very reliable and has real chemistry with Jordan Love. In the two games they’ve played together this season Reed has gone 11-277-2 on 14 targets. Expect this duo to link early.

First TD prop bet #2: Travis Etienne

Best odds: +650 at DraftKings

It’s do or die for the Jacksonville Jaguars this week, who, at 0-4, can realistically kiss any hopes of playoffs goodbye if they don’t win. Fortunately, they face a Colts team potentially down Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor, so it's unlikely Indianapolis will strike first.

Enter Travis Etienne. He’s only scored twice all season, but this Colts’ defense is weak against the run and can be taken advantage of. Indy allows an average of 164.8 rushing yards per game, so the Jags are likely to put their faith in the former Clemson running back.

First TD prop bet #3: Xavier Legette

Best odds: +1,600 at BetMGM

The Bears have looked anemic at times this season, but the new look, Andy Dalton-led Carolina Panthers look more confident over the last two weeks. 

There’s no Adam Thielen this week and Diontae Johnson has only just had his questionable tag removed, so he might not be at 100%. That should mean it’s time for Xavier Legette, who scored his first NFL touchdown last week.

He had 10 targets last week turning that into six catches and a touchdown, leading the WR corps in snaps as well as tying Johnson in routes run. He’s becoming a factor in this offense, and the first-round pick has the physical gifts to cause the Bears problems. 

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Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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