Here we gooooo!
Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys escaped Week 4 with a narrow Thursday night win and are back on prime time as they travel to take on the stout Pittsburgh Steelers defense.
I've taken a look through the Dak Prescott odds available, and I believe the best value is to bet on him to throw no interceptions on Sunday, October 6.
Dak Prescott SNF player prop picks
- Best bet
Under 0.5 interceptions
(+105 at bet365) - SGP Pick
Prescott Under 0.5 interceptions
Justin Fields 50+ rushing yards
Jalen Tolbert Over 3.5 receptions
(+950 at bet365)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Dak Prescott SNF prop pick
My best bet
Under 0.5 interceptions (+105 at bet365)
My analysis
While the Dallas Cowboys' results have been mixed this year, one thing has remained true: Dak Prescott continues to take care of the ball.
He's thrown an interception in just one of four games, a year after having 10 pick-less games across his 17 last year. That rate is much lower than the odds on this prop for Sunday night, which has an implied probability of 48%.
Granted, the Steelers have generated four interceptions already this year. Still, all four came against Kirk Cousins (two) in that strange Week 1 game where Atlanta ran every play from pistol (seemingly trying to hide Cousins' still-recovering Achilles) and Bo Nix in Week 2.
For comparison, Pittsburgh was unable to get the more capable Joe Flacco and Justin Herbert to throw a pick.
This was the common theme last year, as while the Steelers had 16 interceptions, they tallied up half of those in the last five weeks against the likes of Tyler Huntley, Jake Browning, Gardner Minshew (three), and Bailey Zappe (three).
Prescott is an entirely different caliber of passer compared to those listed and has long been someone who takes better care of the ball.
Dak Prescott SNF same-game parlay
Dak Prescott Under 0.5 interceptions
Justin Fields 50+ rushing yards
Jalen Tolbert Over 3.5 receptions
On the other side, Justin Fields may be set to carve up the Cowboys' defense with his legs. Dallas is tied with Atlanta for the most rushing yards allowed to opposing QBs, allowing them on 7.5 attempts to the Falcon's 8.8.
Making things easier for Fields is Micah Parsons absence, giving him one less obstacle to rack up his running totals.
Someone who Prescott may lean on is Jalen Tolbert, who, after two quiet years, has started to emerge as a reliable option week to week. Brandin Cooks is also out, which will open up his route rate.
Tolbert has posted a 59 Open Score according to ESPN (up from 30 last year) while Cooks has been the second-worst by the same metric.
Average Separation Score (a metric developed by FantasyPtsData) corroborates Tolbert's improvement, having him with the fifth-best separation from the slot this year.
The best separators from the slot, per @FantasyPtsData
— Jake Tribbey (@JakeTribbey) September 24, 2024
- Tolbert with back-to-back games of 13+ fantasy points
- Nailor remains an ASS god
- Kelce not producing, but still getting open at a relatively high level pic.twitter.com/YCbbFCKhcK
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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