Dolphins vs Patriots Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets for Week 5: Miami Bounces Back Against Feeble Divisional Rival

Despite a rocky start to the season, Miami's offense remains superior to New England's ahead of Sunday's AFC East showdown.

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst
Oct 5, 2024 • 20:37 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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A pair of struggling AFC East teams will go toe-to-toe when the Miami Dolphins visit the New England Patriots on Sunday.

While New England was expected to be bad, Miami has playoff aspirations, and my Dolphins vs. Patriots predictions and NFL picks are expecting the Fins to put another tick in the wins column on October 6.

Dolphins vs Patriots prediction

My best bet
Dolphins moneyline (+100 at BetMGM)

My analysis

Although it's been an ugly start to the season for the Miami Dolphins, I’m still confident head coach Mike McDaniel and quarterback Tyler Huntley will have the offense in better shape Sunday following a full week of practice.

After all, it’s not as if the New England Patriots have been sharp on defense. The Pats rank 28th in defensive DVOA while allowing the eighth-highest EPA per play and sixth-highest dropback success rate. Add in the fact that they're surrendering the fifth-highest yards per passing attempt to opposing quarterbacks, and the McDaniel-Huntley duo is set up for success Sunday.

Miami also has multiple game-breaking playmakers, and Huntley has been serviceable in a game-manager’s role in the past. Of course, he also has a splash of game-breaking ability on the ground of his own. There’s just too much talent on offense to be held in check for a third consecutive week.

I can’t say the same for New England.

The Pats have a makeshift offensive line, and quarterback Jacoby Brissett has a single big-time throw while airing it out for a pedestrian 5.3 yards per attempt and a 6.8 aDOT. New England ranks 32nd in pass-block win rate and 26th in rush-block win rate, while also sporting respective 30th and 29th PFF grades in run and pass blocking.

It’s not a winning formula.

Dolphins vs Patriots same-game parlay

Dolphins moneyline

Tyreek Hill Over 48.5 receiving yards

Jaylen Waddle Over 36.5 receiving yards

Going into Week 2 against Buffalo, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle had respective receiving-yards totals of 90.5 and 66.5. Their Week 5 numbers are considerably lower, and as discussed, I’m anticipating better quarterback play coming for Miami against the miserable New England pass defense.

The Miami wideout duo are both excellent after the catch, and Huntley did a decent job pushing the ball downfield last week with a respectable 8.4 aDOT against Tennessee. As noted, the Pats are susceptible through the air and have allowed the eighth-highest completion percentage and fourth-most net yards per attempt through four weeks.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Dolphins vs Patriots odds

Dolphins vs Patriots live odds

Dolphins vs Patriots opening odds

  • Spread: Miami +1 (-115) | New England -1 (-105)
  • Moneyline: Miami -110 | New England -110
  • Over/Under: Over 35.5 (-110) | Under 35.5 (-110)

Dolphins vs Patriots spread and Over/Under analysis

  • This spread has seen back-and-forth action, with Miami initially moving to -1 on Sunday night after opening as a +1 underdog. The Dolphins are back to +1 at BetMGM as of Thursday afternoon.
  • The moneyline has seen similar adjustments at the shop, with New England moving from -110 to -120.
  • This total has been bet up to 36.5 from the 35.5 BetMGM initially hung.
  • The Dolphins have been trending to the Under dating back to last season, with the total falling short in five of Miami's past six games.

Dolphins vs Patriots betting trend to know

New England has only hit the moneyline in five of its last 20 games (-8.05 Units / -30% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Patriots.

Dolphins vs Patriots game info

Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Date: Sunday, 10-6, 2024
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX

Dolphins vs Patriots latest injuries

Dolphins vs Patriots weather

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Not intended for use in MA.
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Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

Neil’s top pieces of advice for recreational bettors are to stay within your means and to remember sportsbooks aren’t bank accounts. Don’t be afraid to pull those winnings and treat yourself to a lifetime experience courtesy of a big win.

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