A pair of struggling AFC East teams will go toe-to-toe with one of the lowest totals on the docket when the Miami Dolphins visit the New England Patriots on Sunday.
While New England was expected to be bad, Miami has playoff aspirations, and my Dolphins vs. Patriots predictions and NFL picks are expecting the Fins to put another tick in the wins column on October 6.
Dolphins vs Patriots prediction
My best bet
Dolphins moneyline (+100 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Although it's been an ugly start to the season for the Miami Dolphins, I’m still confident head coach Mike McDaniel and quarterback Tyler Huntley will have the offense in better shape Sunday following a full week of practice.
After all, it’s not as if the New England Patriots have been sharp on defense. The Pats rank 28th in defensive DVOA while allowing the eighth-highest EPA per play and sixth-highest dropback success rate. Add in the fact that they're surrendering the fifth-highest yards per passing attempt to opposing quarterbacks, and the McDaniel-Huntley duo is set up for success Sunday.
Miami also has multiple game-breaking playmakers, and Huntley has been serviceable in a game-manager’s role in the past. Of course, he also has a splash of game-breaking ability on the ground of his own. There’s just too much talent on offense to be held in check for a third consecutive week.
I can’t say the same for New England.
The Pats have a makeshift offensive line, and quarterback Jacoby Brissett has a single big-time throw while airing it out for a pedestrian 5.3 yards per attempt and a 6.8 aDOT. New England ranks 32nd in pass-block win rate and 26th in rush-block win rate, while also sporting respective 30th and 29th PFF grades in run and pass blocking.
It’s not a winning formula.
Dolphins vs Patriots same-game parlay
Dolphins moneyline
Tyreek Hill Over 48.5 receiving yards
Jaylen Waddle Over 36.5 receiving yards
Going into Week 2 against Buffalo, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle had respective receiving-yards totals of 90.5 and 66.5. Their Week 5 numbers are considerably lower, and as discussed, I’m anticipating better quarterback play coming for Miami against the miserable New England pass defense.
The Miami wideout duo are both excellent after the catch, and Huntley did a decent job pushing the ball downfield last week with a respectable 8.4 aDOT against Tennessee. As noted, the Pats are susceptible through the air and have allowed the eighth-highest completion percentage and fourth-most net yards per attempt through four weeks.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Dolphins vs Patriots odds
Dolphins vs Patriots live odds
Dolphins vs Patriots opening odds
- Spread: Miami +1 (-115) | New England -1 (-105)
- Moneyline: Miami -110 | New England -110
- Over/Under: Over 35.5 (-110) | Under 35.5 (-110)
Dolphins vs Patriots spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread has seen back-and-forth action, with Miami initially moving to -1 on Sunday night after opening as a +1 underdog. The Dolphins are back to +1 at BetMGM as of Thursday afternoon.
- The moneyline has seen similar adjustments at the shop, with New England moving from -110 to -120.
- This total has been bet up to 36.5 from the 35.5 BetMGM initially hung.
- The Dolphins have been trending to the Under dating back to last season, with the total falling short in five of Miami's past six games.
Dolphins vs Patriots betting trend to know
New England has only hit the moneyline in five of its last 20 games (-8.05 Units / -30% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Patriots.
Dolphins vs Patriots game info
| Location: | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-6, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Dolphins vs Patriots latest injuries
Dolphins vs Patriots weather
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