Best NFL Sack and Tackle Props for Week 16: Cox Wreaks Havoc in NFC East Rivalry

Week 16 odds have arrived, which means only three weeks remaining of a full slate of NFL odds to dig into.

This is a big Christmas weekend with a slew of games on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. I'm focusing on the Christmas Eve and Christmas Day contests as I analyze the defensive player props.

Let's just say that Santa won't be the only fat man bringing a sack this Christmas (please don't tell Fletcher Cox I called him fat), and Dre Greenlaw will also be ringing plenty of bells against the Ravens. Here are my best free sack and tackle NFL picks for Week 16.

This week’s best sack and tackle props

• Gary Under 0.75 sacks (-125 at DraftKings)
• Huff Over 0.25 sacks (+110 at DraftKings)
• Cox Over 0.25 sacks (+130 at bet365)
• Speed Over 4.5 solo tackles (+130 at bet365)
• Greenlaw Over 7.5 total tackles (-115 at bet365)

Picks made on December 23 at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of our sack picks and our tackle props

Best Week 16 sack picks

Packers vs Panthers: Rashan Gary

On the surface, this looks like the ideal matchup for Green Bay Packers linebacker Rashan Gary to pick up a sack. After all, he leads the Packers with nine sacks and will be going up against a Carolina Panthers offensive line that has surrendered the fourth-most sacks (54) in the NFL.

That said, Gary is far from consistent as a pass rusher and he has a pass rush grade of 57.1, 61.0, and 51.6 in his last three games according to Pro Football Focus. In fact, Gary has picked up more than half a sack in just four of 14 games this season, with his overall numbers inflated by a pair of contests where he racked up three sacks.

He'll also be lining up against Carolina's best blocker right tackle Taylor Moton, who has allowed just one sack on 625 pass-blocking snaps this year. Fade Gary on his sacks total for Sunday.

Rashan Gary Prop: Under 0.75 sacks (-125 at DraftKings)

Commanders vs Jets: Bryce Huff

Expect plenty of sacks in Sunday's contest between the Washington Commanders and New York Jets, as these two squads have surrendered a combined 120 sacks this year. While sophomore quarterback Sam Howell has put up some solid numbers at times this season, he holds on to the ball too long and has poor pocket awareness.

With Washington also throwing at the highest rate in the league, that has led to Howell eating dirt a whopping 59 times. That's bad news for Howell as he faces off against a Jets stop unit that can bring the heat.

Bryce Huff is having a breakout season for the Jets and leads the team with eight sacks. While the OLB was seeing only about 30% of the Jets' defensive snaps for the first month of the season, he's now on the field for just over half of their snaps, which has resulted in consistent production.

He has picked up a sack in seven of his last nine games and ranks 12th among all edge rushers with a pass rush grade of 84.4 per PFF. Back Huff to add to his sack tally on Sunday.

Bryce Huff Prop: Over 0.25 sacks (+110 at DraftKings)

Giants vs Eagles: Fletcher Cox

While the Commanders and Jets have allowed the second and third-most sacks in the league, the team that holds the dubious distinction of giving up the most sacks is the New York Giants. They are massive 13.5-point road underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles on Christmas Day, which will likely mean a negative game script and plenty of pass attempts for Giants rookie QB Tommy DeVito.

DeVito escaped without a sack in New York's Week 14 upset win against the Packers, but he's been sacked 33 times in his other five starts — including seven sacks last week. While the Giants have stud left tackle Andrew Thomas back in the lineup, the rest of the offensive line has been a disaster and given a ton of pressure up the middle.

That's bad news with the Eagles boasting a defensive line that gets plenty of push inside. Defensive tackle Fletcher Cox is one of the best defensive tackles in the league and has picked up at least half a sack in five of his last seven games.

The six-time Pro Bowler also picked up a sack in both games he played against the G-Men last season. Take the Over 0.25 sacks for Cox on Christmas Day.

Fletcher Cox Prop: Over 0.25 sacks (+130 at bet365)

Best Week 16 sack picks

Colts vs Falcons: E.J. Speed

Indianapolis Colts linebacker E.J. Speed is coming off a game against the Steelers where he racked up nine solo tackles and had a sizzling run-defense grade of 93.8 per PFF. 

After being a rotational piece for most of the season, Speed has logged more than 90% of Indy's defensive snaps over his last three games. He had five solo tackles in that first contest versus the Bucs before upping that number to six stops the following week against the Titans. After missing Indy's Week 14 tilt against the Bengals due to a knee injury, Speed showed that he was back to full strength last week with that sensational performance versus Pittsburgh. 

Speed lives up to his name as a fast linebacker who makes hits sideline to sideline, but he's also very cerebral at diagnosing plays. Back him to go Over 4.5 solo tackles against a run-heavy Atlanta Falcons offense.

E.J. Speed Prop: Over 4.5 solo tackles (+130 at bet365)

Ravens vs 49ers: Dre Greenlaw

All eyes will be on the Monday Night matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers, which could very well end up being a Super Bowl preview. While there are big-name offensive players to keep an eye on in this contest, don't forget that these are two of the best defensive teams in the league as well.

Linebacker Dre Greenlaw has been a tackling machine for San Francisco, and after racking up 127 tackles in 15 games last year, he has 98 tackles through 13 contests this season. The Niners' defense has been a bit vulnerable against the run this season, and that should result in an already run-heavy Ravens offense attacking even more on the ground.

Baltimore also employs an up-tempo offense, and that, combined with the running threat of Lamar Jackson, should lead to plenty of tackling opportunities for Greenlaw. With the O/U on Greenlaw's total tackles set at 7.5, a number he has eclipsed in seven of his last eight games, hammer the Over.

Dre Greenlaw Prop: Over 7.5 total tackles (-115 at bet365)

How are sack and tackle props calculated?

It's important to read the wording associated with the sack props at each specific sportsbook. Most books will list an Over/Under number which is set at 0.25 or 0.75, since players can be credited for 0.5 sacks for sharing a sack with a teammate. Other books will mark a sack as a "yes" or "no" proposition in which case half a sack will count as the player recording a sack. 

Books often have props for solo tackles, assists, and tackles which are made up of both solo tackles and assisted.

Best strategies to bet sack and tackle props

There are several factors to consider when handicapping sack totals. The most obvious involves the defensive player himself. How often does he get sacks both in terms of his recent history and also over a larger sample size, and does he consistently generate pressure. A player might have picked up sacks in three consecutive games but if he doesn't consistently beat his blocker, he's likely due for regression. On the other side of things, a player might be held off the sack sheet in four straight games, but if he's constantly pressuring opposing passers, it's only a matter of time before he gets a sack.

Who the defender is matching up against is also an important factor. How well does the projected starter opposite from him perform as a pass blocker and is that opposing player injured or playing out of position? In addition, is the offense able or willing to double-team the defender? Certain quarterbacks also hold on to the ball longer, have less pocket awareness, or don't have the mobility to evade pass rushers.

It's also important to consider how the rest of his team will affect a player's ability to get sacks. Perhaps his defensive coordinator is using him more in coverage, perhaps another defender is poaching his sacks or allowing him to get easier matchups. Improved play in the secondary can also lead to coverage sacks.

Game situation also matters since an offense that throws the ball a lot or is expected to play from behind, will also give a defense more opportunity to get sacks. 

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