Two teams still with an outside shot of making the playoffs will meet in a virtual must-win game on Christmas Eve when the New Orleans Saints get a “White Christmas” in Ohio against the Cleveland Browns.
The Saints got a big divisional win over the Falcons last week to keep them alive for the NFC South title despite a 5-9 record. The Browns also notched a big divisional win over the Baltimore Ravens to keep them mathematically alive for a Wild Card spot in the AFC.
Which team will likely see their season end right before Christmas? Find out in our NFL picks and predictions for Saints vs. Browns below.
Saints vs Browns best odds
Saints vs Browns picks and predictions
It should be a very snowy Christmas Eve in Cleveland with expected temperatures in the single digits to go along with massive wind gusts and snow storms. This will play right into the Cleveland Browns’ preferred style of play. Cleveland loves to pound the ball and keep games low scoring.
Cleveland opponents have only averaged 14.3 points per game over its last three. Last week, they held the Ravens to only three points and 283 total yards of offense. Their recent defensive strength can be attributed strongly to their ability to force turnovers and run the ball.
The Browns have forced seven turnovers over the past three games with only three turnovers of their own. This is going to be a massive mismatch against the New Orleans Saints, who have the worst turnover differential in the NFL (-12). Andy Dalton has thrown an interception in three consecutive games against the Browns going back to his days in Cincinnati.
Nick Chubb is questionable to play on Saturday, but even without him, the Browns are an excellent rushing offense. Cleveland ranks fifth in the league at 149.0 yards per game on the ground and 11th in the NFL at 4.7 yards per attempt. On the other end, the Saints struggle mightily to stop the run.
Atlanta was able to run for 231 yards last week on this Saints defense that allows 132.6 rushing yards per game, ranking out 23rd in the NFL. They also allow 4.6 yards per attempt (21st in the league). No matter who is in the backfield for the Browns, they should find holes against this defense.
With winds above 20 mph, the game will need to be won on the ground. This heavily favors the Browns and they will have no problem not trying to force things through bad weather. I like this game to be similar to last week’s game against the Ravens, where Cleveland wins easily in a low-scoring affair.
My best bet: Browns -2.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
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Saints vs Browns spread analysis
With bad weather and a team that has turnover issues, the Saints will need to turn to their run game in Cleveland. The problem is, they have had massive struggles in that area this season. Alvin Kamara has only 641 yards rushing and one rushing TD (three total) in 12 games this year.
The Saints average only 111.3 yards per game on the ground, ranking 21st in the NFL. With Mark Ingram on the IR, only Taysom Hill and Kamara are on the active roster for the Saints with more than 50 rushing yards on the season. This may be a game where the Saints need to go heavy with Hill playing quarterback.
Not only is weather a factor, but the Saints also struggle outdoors in general. They are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games played on grass. They've also failed to cover in five consecutive games following a straight-up win.
Meanwhile, Cleveland loves the cold weather and is 4-1 ATS in their last five December games. It's going to be difficult for the Saints to turn into a good rushing team overnight and this is just what the Browns do. Give me Cleveland to cover easily.
Saints vs Browns Over/Under analysis
I imagine you can guess where we're going with the total given how I've scripted the game thus far. Bad weather, run-heavy offense, and recently strong defenses in points per game lead to a heavy Under lean here. The problem is the total is just a measly 32 points.
The good news is some of the trends going into this matchup. The Under has hit in six consecutive December Saints games and six of the past seven Saints games overall. The Under is 4-1 in the Saints' last five road games and 9-3 in the last 12 Saints games following a loss ATS.
The Under is a perfect 4-0 in the last four Browns games overall and 8-2 in the last 10 Browns games against a team with a losing record. The combination of game script, bad weather, and these trends lead to a heavy Under play despite the extremely low total.
Saints vs Browns betting trend to know
The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with the Browns. Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Browns.
Saints vs Browns game info
| Location: | FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, December 24, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Opening odds: | Browns -3, 35.5 O/U |
Saints vs Browns latest injuries
Saints vs Browns weather
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