The Arizona Cardinals will try to get their offense on track in Week 7 as the Cards host the New Orleans Saints as slight favorites with a total of 45 Thursday night.
DeAndre Hopkins’ suspension is over but I’m backing another Arizona pass catcher, and whoever is under center for the Saints should have an easy time in the air. Arizona’s defense ranks dead last in success rate per drop back on the season.
Find out all my thoughts in my free NFL player prop picks for Thursday Night Football between the Saints and Cardinals.
Be sure to also check out Jason Logan's full game betting analysis before kickoff!
Saints vs Cardinals props
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Saints vs Cardinals TNF props
It Ertz so good
The Arizona offense is unraveling. Kliff Kingsbury is looking to give up play-calling duties, Marquise Browns is out, James Connor and Darrel Willaims could both miss Thursday night, and Eno Benjamin — who played 87% of the snaps last week in a 19-9 loss to Seattle — is dealing with a foot injury.
But even with this decimated offense getting DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension, it’s tight end Zach Ertz I’m putting my money on to top his receiving yard total of 47.5 yards.
This total closed at 49.5 yards last week and the TE led the Cards in targets (10), catches (7), and yards (70). With Marquise Brown missing some time with a foot injury, Brown's 26.3% target share is going to go somewhere, and it's not likely all will go to Hopkins, who has basically played just one game over the last calendar year.
The Saints have been stout against opposing TEs this season but haven’t faced a 20% target share TE all year. Only three other TEs have a higher target share than Ertz and only Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce have more receptions through six weeks.
Zach Ertz Prop: Over 47.5 receiving yards (-110)
The rookie’s back
Rookie wide receiver Chris Olave (concussion) was not on the Monday practice report which is great news for the Saints’ passing game as Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and Keith Kirkwood were all listed as DNP on Monday’s injury report.
As of Tuesday, I’m unsure who will be under center for New Orleans with both Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston limited this week, but if Winston could get back and start Thursday, Olave could have another big day.
In the two games with Winston where he saw meaningful snaps in Weeks 2 and 3, the rookie receiver saw 26 targets which he turned into 14 catches and 247 yards. But even if Dalton starts, Olive still had a touchdown in each game with the Red Rifle and was still a favorite target for the QB.
Rookie receiver usage and efficiency (min 10% team routes run in games played)
— Kevin Cole (@KevinColePFF) October 18, 2022
- Drake London and Chris Olave high usage and efficiency, the former in a low-volume passing attack
- George Pickens' efficiency moving up
- Alec Pierce entering the discussion
- More Wan'Dale, please pic.twitter.com/1gRngAcB42
The Arizona secondary is a great matchup for Olave and the Cardinals rank dead last in success rate per dropback and 27th in EPA/dropback.
Olave’s receiving yard total should be somewhere between his Week 4 total of 58.5 and his Week 5 total of 67.5. I’d play the Over of 67.5 if Winston were under center and as high as 64.5 with Dalton playing.
However, without any receiving markets open thanks to the injuries and uncertainties at QB, I have no issue hitting his anytime touchdown market at +200 at PointsBet.
He leads all New Orleans pass-catchers in red-zone targets and if Thomas and Landry sit, this will close below +150.
Chris Olave Prop: Anytime touchdown (+200)
Murray is moving
Kyler Murray was under a ton of pressure in Week 6 vs. the Seahawks, who entered the game ranked 31st in sacks. Murray took a season-high six sacks and rushed for 100 yards thanks to all the pressure.
Murray could be without his best running backs for pass protection on Thursday, and his offensive line is a carousel. Kingsbury was hoping to get lineman Cody Ford for Thursday, but Ford is still on the IR, which doesn’t bode well for this beat-up line on a short week.
Making things worse, left guard Justin Pugh tore his ACL on Sunday. Backup Max Garcia would start there if Ford can’t go. Center Rodney Hudson is also still bothered by a knee injury and hasn’t played since Week 4. He was DNP on Monday’s injury report, and it's not a great outlook for this group.
I could certainly see Murray using his legs again this week. With the Saints blitzing at nearly a 25% rate, if Murray can step through the pressure, yards will be available upfield.
The Arizona QB has over 220 rushing yards on the season, with more than half of them coming on designed runs. With few healthy bodies at running back with James Connor and Darrel Williams doubtful and Eno Benjamin limited, Murray’s role in the running game could get a boost Thursday.
Considering Murray's rushing yard total was just 25.5 yards a week ago, and the Cards’ season is on life support, Murray might have to break out all the stops in primetime.
Kyler Murray Prop: Over 29.5 rushing yards (-115)
