Saints vs Chargers Preseason Picks and Predictions: L.A. Holds Value as Home Dog

Even with Hurricane Hilary threatening Southern California on Sunday, the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Chargers are still scheduled to lock horns for their scheduled preseason game. 

What does the second week of preseason have in store? Looking at NFL odds, the Saints are expected to blow into town and cruise to victory. I’m generally not a fan of laying points with the road team in preseason action, so allow me to dive deeper into this matchup to determine if the line is warranted. 

Read on for my best bet and full NFL preseason picks and predictions for the Saints vs. Chargers on Sunday, August 20. 

Saints vs Chargers odds

Saints vs Chargers predictions

The big news surrounding this contest is the anticipated impact — or not — of Hurricane Hilary, a Category 4 storm brewing in the Pacific Ocean that is expected to hit Southern California around Sunday afternoon.

It’ll be the forefront thing on everyone’s mind and it’s a question of whether or not the game gets played at all considering the unprecedented nature of the storm in Southern California. The MLB made plans ahead of time and moved the scheduled Sunday games for the Padres, Angels, and Dodgers all up a day to double-headers on Saturday. 

While SoFi stadium does have a roof, it’s not exactly immune to rainfall. Still, if the game does get played, then the elements shouldn’t have a huge impact on the field conditions considering the game will be played indoors.

New Orleans Saints head coach Dennis Allen hasn’t shown much of a penchant for leading winning teams in the preseason, sporting a 6-10 career record. After going 1-2 in last year’s dress rehearsals, the Saints started with a 26-24 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs a week ago. 

Starting quarterback Derek Carr saw the field and looked good, completing six of his eight attempts for 70 yards and a touchdown. Jameis Winston then stayed in for an extended run, completing 11 of his 13 throws for 92 yards and a score. Fresno State rookie Jake Haener played the rest of the game, going 10-for-17 passing for 105 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. 

While he hasn’t tipped his hand completely, Allen did state that available starters will likely not see the field in the same fashion as a week ago. The team is dealing with a few injuries at present, notably to running back Kendre Miller, offensive lineman Andrus Peat, and linebacker Demario Davis. Wide receiver Rashid Shaheed is also dealing with a knock while cornerback Marshon Lattimore has a minor knee injury. 

Considering the extent of these knick-nacks up and down the roster, I would not be surprised in the slightest if Allen dials back his playing time for impact players in Week 2. 

Meanwhile, Los Angeles Chargers head coach Brandon Staley also hasn’t shown much love for preseason contests, sporting a 2-5 record in his career including an 0-3 showing a year ago. He turned that around a bit last week as his team demolished the Los Angeles Rams by a final score of 34-17. 

Backup quarterback Easton Stick has a wealth of preseason experience and played the majority of the contest, completing 14 of 21 attempts — albeit for just 109 yards and a touchdown. He is a dangerous runner and keeps defenses honest with his legs while being a mediocre-at-best thrower of the football. TCU rookie Max Duggan saw very limited playing time a week ago, notching as many pass attempts (3) as sacks.

I’m always hesitant to lay points in a preseason game, especially with the road team. Home-field advantage does matter in the preseason and the Saints are in a tricky spot on the road with flash floods expected to impact travel. The NFL is keeping both teams in skates by waiting so long to make any sort of official determination on the game, and the uncertainty can only favor the home team considering the Chargers can simply sit around and wait comfortably. 

I see no reason why Los Angeles should be an underdog of over a field goal. Therefore, I will be playing the Chargers as the home underdog. 

My best bet: Chargers +4 (-110 at PointsBet)

Saints vs Chargers spread and Over/Under analysis

The Saints are a -3.5 road favorite across most books, although -4 is also available at some locations. Be sure to shop around using our NFL odds tool to ensure you find the best price before placing your wager. 

The two squads practiced together for two days this week and tempers seemed to remain calm with zero reported fights — an abnormality for joint practices. 

New Orleans enters Year 2 under Coach Allen with a new signal caller, and receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed both emerged in 2022 and return as top pass-catching options. Nearly the entire front seven defensively has turned over other than Cameron Jordan, so they have a ton of questions to answer on that side of the ball. Coach Allen will hope for improvement after a 7-10 showing in Year 1. 

The Chargers, meanwhile, don’t have much turnover entering 2023. Justin Herbert returns at quarterback and his skill position players look mostly the same around him, although Quentin Johnston was drafted to provide additional support. Derrick Ansley takes over as defensive coordinator and has top-end talent at his disposal in Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. Cornerback J.C. Jackson mightily underperformed last year as the team’s big-ticket free agent signing, so the secondary has questions to answer. 

I’m a fan of the Chargers at +3 for this contest and will gladly snap up the +4 currently being offered. They’re playing at home in a strange scenario considering the oncoming hurricane, and there’s little separating these teams talent-wise.

As for the total, be sure to shop around as anywhere from 37.5 to 38.5 is currently being offered. Both teams have experienced quarterbacking options to throw out there and that has me slightly siding with the Over. 

New Orleans is well-stocked with talent as Winston is an overqualified backup and Haener is a promising, old rookie. For the Chargers, Stick has a ton of preseason experience and that should benefit him if he's given extended playing time for the second straight week. 

Saints vs Chargers betting trend to know

New Orleans has not won a preseason game on the road since 2019. Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Chargers.

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